Early Look

Thursday, August 7, 2025

Another day, another record potentially on tap for the Nasdaq and S&P 500, as futures are soaring again with all Mag 7 names trading higher pre mkt, building on yesterday’s gains. President Trump took to Truth Social on Thursday noting that billions of dollars in tariffs were now flowing into the US. “IT’S MIDNIGHT!!! BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN TARIFFS ARE NOW FLOWING INTO THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!” Trump wrote. The US president added that this additional money will come “largely from countries” that he says has taken “advantage” of the US. Trump’s sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs hit US trade partners on Thursday when his deadline to strike deals expired at 12:01 a.m. ET. Yesterday the President signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on India over its purchases of Russian oil. The new tariff, which will come into effect in 21 days. Apple’s (AAPL) stock rose 3.3% in premarket trading, adding to Wednesday 5% advance after Trump’s announcement on Wednesday that the company will invest an additional $100 billion in the U.S., a move that could help it sidestep potential tariffs on iPhones. U.S.-listed chipmakers advanced broadly, with Advanced Micro Devices, Intel and Nvidia rising after U.S. President Trump said Wednesday, he plans to impose a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports, with an exemption for companies that manufacture or commit to manufacturing in the U.S.  South Korean chip makers, including Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc, will be treated as a most favored nation (MFN) by the US in terms of semiconductor exports under a bilateral tariff agreement, the trade minister said Thursday, noting that Korean firms will not be subject to 100% duties (Taiwan’s TSM also exempt).

U.S. stock markets surged on Wednesday, ending the day solidly higher as the Nasdaq led the charge behind gains in tech and consumer discretionary sectors, while healthcare and material stocks finished lower. The S&P technology index (XLK) registered a record closing high for the session as it surpassed its July 30 finish boosted by shares of Apple (AAPL) after a White House official said it would make a domestic manufacturing pledge of $100 billion (which was later confirmed at night) while a White House official, CNBC reported that Apple would be largely unaffected by tariffs it announced against goods from India. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index jumped 264 points to 41,059, the Shanghai Index edged higher 5 points to 3,639, and the Hang Seng Index gained 171 points to 25,081. In Europe, the German DAX is surging 385 points to 24,309, while the FTSE 100 slips -38 points to 9,125 and the Cac 40 jumps 90 points to 7,725. The US dollar has resumed its slide over the past few sessions, but is flat this morning vs euro and yen, crypto prices edge higher and yields are flat.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 81.38 points, or 0.18%, to 44,193.12
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 252.87 points, or 1.21%, to 21,169.42
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -4.38 points, or 0.20% to 2,221.29

• 8:30 AM EST                Continuing Claims…est. 1.95M
• 8:30 AM ET                  Nonfarm Productivity for Q2…est. +2.0%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Unit Labor Costs for Q2…est. +1.5%
• 10:00 AM ET                Wholesale Inventory M/M for June…est. +0.2%
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $22B in 30-year notes
• 3:00 PM ET                   Consumer Credit for June

• Earnings After the Close: AAOI ABCL AGO AHL AKAM ALRM AMBC AMN ARRY ARWR ASND BHF BLNK CARG CART CENX CHYM CLNE CLSK CON CRNX CRSR CYTK DBX DCGO DH DOCS DVAX EB ED ETON EXPE FIGS FLL FLUT FNKO FOXF FROG G GDDY GDEN GEN GHLD GILD GMED GSAT HASI HE ICUI IIIV IOVA JAMF KRT KTOS LASR LDI LION LNT LYV LZ MAIN MCHP MITK MNST MP MSI MTW NGL NGVC NRDY NTRA NUS OS OTEX PACB PBA PCT PGNY PINS POST PTCT RC REAL RKLB RPD RXST RXT SAND SG SKIN SLF SMR SOUN SSP STNE SYNA TEAM TRIP TRUP TTD TTWO TWLO TXG TXRH VIAV WEST WYNN XPOF XYZ YELP ZYME

• The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -8.3 vs +7.3 last week; Bulls fall to 34.9% from 40.3%; Neutrals fall to 21.9% from 26.7%; Bears rise to 43.2% from 33%.

• Costco (COST) reported net sales of $20.89B for the retail month of July, the four weeks ended August 3, an increase of 8.5% from $19.26B last year. Net sales for the first 48 weeks were $248.35B, an increase of 8.1% from $229.81B last year
• DoorDash (DASH) Q2 EPS $0.65 vs. est. $0.43; Q2 revs $3.28B vs. est. $3.16B; Q2 total orders increased 20% y/y to 761 million; Q2 Marketplace GOV increased 23% Y/Y to $24.2 billion; sees Q3 adjusted EBITDA $680M-$780M; Net revenue margin inched higher to 13.5% from 13.3% a year ago, helped by robust advertising revenue.
• DraftKings (DKNG) Q2 revs rose 37% y/y to $1.51B vs. est. $1.41B; 2Q Average Rev Per MUP Increased to $151; 2Q monthly unique payers increased to 3.3M avg monthly unique paying customers; guides 2025 revs $6.2B-$6.4B vs. est. $6.31B and maintaining its fiscal year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $800 million to $900 million.
• Dutch Bros (BROS) Q2 adj EPS $0.26 vs est. $0.18 on revs $415.8Mm vs est. $403.69Mm; guides FY revs $1.59-1.60B vs est. $1.586B, comps approx +4.5% and adj EBITDA $285-290Mm vs est. $273.57Mm.
• E.l.f Beauty (ELF) Q1 adj EPS $0.89 vs est. $0.84 on sales $353.7Mm vs est. $350.3Mm; sees H1 net sales growth above 9% reported in Q1 and adj EBITDA mgn approx 20% vs 23% year ago H1.
• Light & Wonder (LNW) Q2 adj EPS $1.58 vs est. $1.41, adj EBITDA $352Mm vs est. $354.4Mm on revs $809Mm vs est. $856.9Mm; guides FY consolidated AEBITDA $1.43-1.47B vs est. $1.422B.
• Lyft Inc. (LYFT) Q2 EPS $0.10 vs est. $0.04, adj EBITDA $129.4Mm vs est. $124.48Mm on revs $1.6B vs est. $1.613B, adj EBITDA mgn 2.9%; guides Q3 gross bookings $4.65-4.8B vs est. $4.59B and adj EBITDA $125-145Mm vs est. $135.7Mm; says on track to deliver long-term targets.
• Zillow Group (Z) Q2 revs rose 15% y/y to $655M vs. est. $647.3M; guides Q3 revs $663M-$673M vs. est. $666.2M; said Q2 results exceeded the company’s outlook for revenue and delivered Adjusted EBITDA at the high end of the company’s outlook range; Mortgages revenue increased 41% y/y to $48M in Q2, primarily due to a 48% increase in purchase loan origination volume; rentals revs rose 36% y/y.

• Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Q2 EPS $0.39 vs. est. $0.29 as higher production countered lower crude oil prices; Q2 average global production was at 1.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboepd), compared with 1.26 Mboepd y/y; disclosed $950M of additional divestitures since the start of Q2, of which $370 million has already closed; guides FY capex $7.1B-$7.3B and oil/gas Permian production 768-784 MBoed.
• Watts Water (WTS) Q2 adj EPS $3.09 vs est. $2.65, adj op mgn 21.6% on revs $643.7Mm vs est. $611.7Mm; guides FY sales +2-5% vs est. +2.7% and adj op mgn 18.2-18.8%.
• Western Midstream Partners (WES) said it will acquire Aris Water Solutions (ARIS) in a cash-and-stock deal valued at about $1.5 billion as it aims to diversify operations in the Permian Basin. Aris shareholders will receive 0.625 common units of Western Midstream for each Aris share, or $25 per share in cash.

• Corebridge (CRBG) 30M share Spot Secondary priced at $33.65.
• MetLife (MET) Q2 adj EPS $2.02 vs. est. $2.16; Q2 revs $17.34B vs. est. $18.46B; Q2 premiums, fees and other revenues of $12.7B, down 6% and adjusted premiums, fees and other revenues, excluding pension risk transfers, were $12.4B, up 5%; Net income decreased 23% to $698M as higher net derivative losses and lower earnings were the primary drivers.
• Paycom (PAYC) Q2 adj EPS $2.06 vs est. $1.78, adj EBITDA $198Mm vs est. $176.8Mm on revs $483.6Mm vs est. $472Mm; guides FY revs approx +10% vs est. +7.85% and adj EBITDA $872-882Mm vs est. $850.54Mm.
• Remitly Global (RELY) Q2 EPS $0.03 vs est. $0.00, adj EBITDA $64Mm vs est. $46.5Mm on revs $411.852Mm vs est. $384.61Mm; guides FY revs $1.574-1.587B vs est. $1.584B.

• CareDx (CDNA) Q2 adj EPS $0.10 vs. est. $0.12; Q2 revs $86.7M vs. est. $90.56M; narrows FY25 revenue view to $367M-$373M from $365M-$375M but maintains 2025 Ebitda outlook.
• Eli Lilly’s (LLY) shares slide as its oral GLP-1, orforglipron, delivers up to about 12% of their body weight after more than a year of treatment, a new study found, short of what some analysts predicted: 13% to 15% or more (shares of competing weight loss drug makers NVO, VKTX moving higher early).
• Exact Sciences (EXAS) shares fall; Q2 EPS loss (-$0.01) vs. est. loss (-$0.15); Q2 revs $811M vs. est. $774.68M; boosts 2025 revenue outlook $3.13B-$3.17B from $3.07B-$3.12B prior; sees 2025 adj EBITDA $455M-$475M vs. prior $425M-$455M; acquires Freenome colorectal cancer screening tests for $75M in cash and up to $700M in additional payments.
• Keros Therapeutics Inc (KROS) to initiate phase 2 trial for Ker-065; expects cash to fund operations into 2028
• Procept BioRobotics (PRCT) Q2 adj EBITDA ($7.994)Mm vs est. ($11.02)Mm on revs $79.182Mm vs est. $76.4MM; guides FY revs $325.5Mm vs est. $324.66Mm and adj EBITDA ($35)Mm vs est. ($38.84)Mm.
• Veracyte Inc. (VCYT) Q2 EPS ($0.01) vs est. $0.10, adj EBITDA $35.8Mm vs est. $25.79Mm on revs $130.2Mm vs est. $120.7Mm; sees FY revs $496-504Mm vs est. $491.95Mm.
• Vir Biotechnology (VIR) outlines global patient recruitment and cash runway through mid-2027 amid hepatitis delta pipeline momentum. CEO Marianne De Backer highlighted several pipeline milestones, stating “we’ve made significant progress in our ECLIPSE registrational program for hepatitis delta,” with first patients now enrolled in ECLIPSE 2 and ECLIPSE 3, and all three studies actively recruiting globally.
• U.S. Senators Ron Wyden and Elizabeth Warren are launching an investigation into UnitedHealth Group (UNH) related to allegations that the company secretly paid nursing homes thousands in bonuses to help slash hospital transfers for ailing residents.

• CF Industries (CF) Q2 EPS $2.37 vs. est. $2.51; Q2 revs $1.89B vs. est. $1.79B; Gross ammonia production for the first half and second quarter of 2025 was approximately 5.2 million and 2.6 million tons, respectively, compared to 4.8 million and 2.6 million tons in the first half and second quarter, respectively, of 2024. The Company expects gross ammonia production for the full year 2025 to be approximately 10 million tons.
• Corteva (CTVA) Q2 adj EPS $2.20 topped consensus $1.88; Q2 revenue $6.46B vs. est. $6.27B
• FireFly Aerospace (FLY) 19.296M share IPO priced at $45.00 as the space and defense firm raised $868.3M in its initial public offering in the United States.
• Joby Aviation (JOBY) outlines $1B Saudi aircraft sales opportunity and plans 100-aircraft Japan JV as certification nears; CEO noted that Stage 4 of certification is now 70% complete on the Joby side and over 50% complete on the FAA side, marking a 10-point increase from last quarter.
• Nutrien (NTR) Q2 adjusted EPS $2.65 vs. est. $2.42; said for Q2, sold record Potash sales volumes, increased Nitrogen operating rates and lowered expenses, while further optimizing capital expenditures.
• Symbotic (SYM) Q3 EPS ($0.05) vs est. $0.04 on revs $592.121 vs est. $533.2Mm; guides Q4 revs $590-610Mm vs est. $635.97Mm.
• Virgin Galactic (SPCE) said it is delaying the first commercial flight of its upgraded Delta space vehicle from summer to the fall months of 2026.

• Amdocs (DOX) Q3 adj EPS $1.72 vs est. $1.71 on revs $1.144B vs est. $1.13B, FCF $212Mm; guides Q4 revs $1.125-1.165B vs est. $1.144B and adj EPS $1.79-1.85 vs est. $1.72; sees FY adj EPS +8-9% vs est. +8.27%.
• AppLovin (APP) Q2 EPS $2.42 vs. est. $2.03; Q2 adj EBITDA $1.02B vs. $511M last year and Q2 revenue $1.26B vs. consensus $1.22B; guides Q3 revs $1.32B-$1.34B vs. est. $1.3B and Ebitda $1.07B-$1.09B.
• Corning (GLW) shares rose after Apple (AAPL) said it will partner with GLW to manufacture 100% of iPhone and Apple Watch cover glass in Kentucky; GLW will dedicate entire Harrodsburg facility to manufacturing for AAPL, increasing workforce in Kentucky by 50%.
• Duolingo (DUOL) Q2 revs $252.3Mm vs est. $240.7Mm; guides Q3 revs $257-261Mm vs est. $252.95Mm, adj EBITDA $69.4-73.1Mm vs est. $70.52Mm; sees FY revs $1.011-1.019B vs est. $996.58Mm and adj EBITDA $288.1-295.5Mm vs est. $273.55Mm.
• HubSpot (HUBS) Q2 adj EPS $2.19 vs est. $2.12, adj EBIT $129.1Mm vs est. $124.8Mm on revs $760.866Mm vs est. $739.81Mm; guides Q3 sales $785-787Mm vs est. $775.43Mm and adj EPS $2.56-2.58 vs est. $2.54; sees FY revs $3.08-3.088B vs est. $3.042B, adj op Inc $568-572Mm vs est. $543.86Mm and adj EPS $9.47-9.53 vs est. $9.36;.
• IONQ Inc. (IONQ) Q2 revs $20.69M vs. est. $17.2M; Q2 net loss widens; announces $1.075 bln acquisition of Oxford Ionics to enhance quantum capabilities; expects full-year 2025 revenue between $82M-$100M vs. est. $85.6M and Q3 revs $25M-$29M vs. est. $25.5M; said aims for 800 logical qubits by 2027.
• Fortinet (FTNT) Q2 adj EPS $0.64 vs est. $0.59 on revs $1.63B vs est. $1.625B; guides Q3 revs $1.67-1.73B vs est. $1.713B, adj gr mgn 80.0-81.0%, adj op mgn 32.5-33.5% and adj EPS $0.62-0.64 vs est. $0.61; sees FY revs $6.675-6.825B, adj gr mgn 79-81%, adj op mgn 32.0-33.5% and adj EPS $2.47-2.53 vs est. $2.48.
• Magnite (MGNI) Q2 adj EPS $0.20 vs est. $0.17, adj EBITDA $54.4Mm vs est. $46.6Mm on revs $173.3Mm vs est. $157.3Mm; says reinstating previous FY expectations.
• MKS Instruments (MKSI) Q2 adj EPS $1.77 vs est. $1.62 on revs $973Mm vs est. $930.7Mm; guides Q3 revs $920Mm-1.0B vs est. $949.8Mm, gr mgn 45.5-47.5%, adj EBITDA $208-256Mm vs est. $231.37Mm.
• WhiteFiber (WYFI) 9.375M share IPO priced at $17.00.