Closing Recap

Wednesday, August 06, 2025

U.S. stock markets don’t stay down for long as another round of earnings, increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts and general upside stock/price momentum/FOMO once again bounced major averages after sliding on Tuesday. Today’s market action was reminiscent of the reaction stocks had on Monday (which rose +1.46% for S&P) after falling on Friday on weaker jobs data. Investors have taken advantage of any/and all stock market pullbacks this year (and last year) to add to positions over the last 3 months…today was no different as the S&P test of the 6,300 level this morning for a second day held before bouncing to highs of 6,350. Smallcaps underperformed today as Russell 2000 lagged, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 posted big gains in Consumer Staples (XLP), Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and of course Technology (XLK), while Healthcare (XLV) and Materials (XLB) declined. ANET, MTCH, AIZ, GPN, were among the winners in earnings today for the S&P but it was strength in Mag 7 names AAPL, TSLA, AMZN that boosted markets. Apple (AAPL) was a market leader after the White House noted the iPhone maker will remain largely unaffected by the tariffs targeting India, while the company also will boost its US investment by $100B to a total of $600B. Today was largely a factor of more upward momentum for markets, holding technical levels and buying the dip after sliding yesterday. Treasury yields edged higher after weak demand for an auction of new 10-year notes.

In Interesting Data Points: @KevRGordon notes, “The 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 made up 40.1% of the index’s market cap thru the end of July … a new multi-decade high” 2) TradingThomas3 tweets: “Citadel reporting retail has been net buyers in 27 of the last 28 sessions;” 3) July’s record $166B in share repurchases played a key role in driving an annual buyback pace that may exceed $1T in 2025. For the year, announced buybacks stand at $926B, which is $108B ahead of the previous year-to-date record set in 2022 (as per Opco trading desk); 4) Bloomberg noted Corporate Insiders at just 151 S&P 500 companies bought their own stocks last month, the fewest since at least 2018; while July’s selling by corporate insiders slowed from June’s pace, purchases dropped even more, pushing the ratio of buying-to-selling to the lowest level in a year; 5)  @KobeissiLetter noted on X yesterday, “n 1960, housing, healthcare, and tuition accounted for ~22% of consumer spending, on average. Currently, those categories account for ~37%, just 2 percentage points below an all-time high. Since 2000, hospital services, college tuition, and housing prices have surged by 271%, 194%, and 108%, respectively. By comparison, overall inflation has risen 90%.”

Trade/tariffs are still a focus of markets, though earnings have headlined the last 2 weeks: here is a recap of latest trade developments from the end of July into August when the trade deal deadline was reached. On July 30, Trump said the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from India, and places a 50% tariff on most Brazilian goods, with softer quotas for sectors such as aircraft, energy and orange juice. The U.S. reaches a deal with South Korea, reducing the planned levies to 15%. He says a 50% tariff on copper pipes and wiring would also kick in on August 1. On July 31, Trump signs an executive order imposing import tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on 69 trading partners ahead of the trade deal deadline. He issues a separate order raising duties on Canadian goods subject to fentanyl-related tariffs to 35%, from 25% previously. He grants Mexico a 90-day reprieve from higher tariffs of 30% on many goods to allow time to negotiate a broader trade pact. On August 6, Trump imposes an additional 25% tariff on goods from India, saying the country directly or indirectly imported Russian oil.

• Gold prices slipped -$1.30 to settle at $3,433.40 an ounce; the US dollar index (DXY) was weaker, hitting new lows, down 0.65% now to 98.14, pulling back off recent highs above 100 on US slowing growth concerns. Crypto prices edged higher with bitcoin and Ethereum edging higher.
• Treasury yields were slightly higher early and picked up steam this afternoon following a weaker 10-year auction as 16.2% primary dealer takedown, highest in a year amid a weak bid-to-cover (demand) at 2.35 as $42B in notes were sold at 4.255% above the when issued 4.244% pre-sale. The 10-yr yield rose 4bps to 4.238%.

• RIVN posts a bigger-than-expected EPS loss (80c vs. est. 65c) on higher costs, lower credit income while flags a bigger adjusted core loss this year, between (-$2B-$2.25B) vs. prior loss view of (-$1.7B-$1.9B).
• DRVN was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan and raised tgt to $23 predicated on (1) defensive demand considering heightened macro uncertainty as tariffs hit consumers’ wallets in 2H, (2) continued strength and share gains in Take 5 and (3) valuation, with DRVN’s deleveraging alleviating an overhang and driving further re-rating potential.
• KMX was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan citing the stock’s underperformance relative to peers for the upgrade. CarMax sentiment is at "rock bottom" and its challenges now seem better understood.

• GO shares jumped in grocers after Q2 results, raised its FY25 adjusted EPS view to $0.75-$0.80 from $0.70-$0.75 prompting upgraded at both Craig Hallum and Morgan Stanley.
• MCD posted Q2 adj EPS $3.19 vs. est. 43.15 on revs $6.843B vs. EST $6.704B as Q2 global comparable sales up 3.8% vs est. up 2.38% with US comparable sales up 2.5% and Q2 systemwide sales up 8%
• SHOP shares jump on results as Q2 revs rose 31% y/y to $2.68B top consensus $2.54B as Q2 Operating Income: $291M (vs. Est. $247.7M), GMV $87.8B rising +30.6% y/y; guides Q3 revenue up at mid-to-high 20s percentage rate y/y, above consensus of 21.5%.
• DKS, FL shares active after CNBC reported Senator Warren asks FTC to consider blocking merger over antitrust concerns.

• In Theme Parks: FUN posted a Q2 net loss of $99.6 million, or (-$0.99) with items, compared with a profit of $55.6 million, or $1.08 a share, in the same quarter a year ago while net revenue rose to $930.4M from $571.6M, which includes $389M that relates to the legacy Six Flags operations added in the Cedar Fair merger (but below ests $982M); said attendance of 14.2 million guests was down 9%, or 1.4 million visits y/y; lower FY adj Ebitda to be between $860 million and $910 million for the year, down from a previous expectation of between $1.08 billion and $1.12 billion.
• In Ride Hailing/Food Delivery: UBER said to buy back up to additional $20B in shares while beating Q2 expectations with EPS of 63c vs. 62c consensus and revenue of $12.7B vs. $12.47B expected. CEO Khosrowshahi highlights record audience and profitability, with 20 autonomous partners globally. Trips grew 18% y/y.

• In nuclear Names: NRG shares tumbled on results as adj EBITDA in line, revenue beat in qtr, but only reaffirms FY adj EBITDA guidance; comes ahead of earnings from CEG, VST tomorrow.
• In Energy earnings: DVN Q2 EPS in line with street as production came in better and they increased FY25 oil production range and lowered FY capex guidance; NE Q2 EPS missed, total revenue slightly above consensus and lowered FY2025 total revenue, raised low end of FY2025 adj EBITDA and raising capex guidance; PARR with EPS beat on better revenue. Adj EBITDA came in higher. Record Hawaii refining quarterly throughput.

• GPN posted Q2 profit above consensus at $3.10 EPS vs. est. $3.06, helped by strong growth and margin improvement in its merchant and issuer solutions businesses; adjusted net revenue rose 5% on a constant currency basis in the quarter ended June 30; now expects FY adj profit to be at the upper end of its previous growth forecast of 10% to 11%.
• TOST delivered results that exceeded the Street, along with strong ARR growth and record net location adds, as well as increased FY25 guidance while one drawback was the several moving pieces in 2H25 across increased expense from tariffs, increased investment in growth, and moderating Subscription gross profit growth.

• In Insurance: KMPR was downgraded from Overweight to Underweight at Piper and cut tgt to $50 from $75 saying its Q2 results have Piper rethinking its view of KMPR PIF growth and underwriting profitability such that it thinks 2025 may be peak near-term earnings.
• Real Estate Services: OPEN shares slide after guiding Q3 revenue in the range of $800M-$875M, well below consensus of $1.2B while Q2 revs rose 4% y/y to $1.6B vs. est. $1.5B and posted a smaller-than-expected Q2 loss.

• AMGN reported Q2 top line beat ($9.20B vs $8.94B consensus) driven by strong performance of the rare disease business (particularly Tepezza, Krystexxa and Uplizna) while top-line guide was raised by $500M at the mid-point (from $34.3-35.7B to $35.0-36.0B) and bottom-line guide by $0.15/share from non-GAAP EPS of $20.0-21.2 to $20.2-21.3).
• BBIO shares fell as analyst noted 2Q Attruby sales of $71.5M were ahead of consensus estimates of $71/65M, but missed a widely expected number.
• NVAX Q2 revenue of $239M topped ests $148M; said received a $175M milestone payment related to U.S. approval of its COVID-19 vaccine; raises year revs view to $1B-$1.05B from prior $975M-$1.03B; Q2 net income was $106.5M, down from $162.4M a year ago.
• RNA shares jumped after the Financial Times reported NVS weighs deal for biotech Avidity to boost drug pipeline; Pharma companies seek deals to replace revenue they will lose due to looming patent cliffs https://tinyurl.com/bdhnbx47 ; shares of DYN which is another player in the oligonucleotide space.

• CRL shares fell as Q2 results beat and raised its forecast but was overshadowed by concerns about the higher number of order cancellations from clients.
• HALO reported Q2 results above consensus estimates and raised 2025 top- and bottom-line guidance.
• HOLX was upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform and raise PT to $87 from $72 at RBC Capital as it thinks FY’26 will be the start of a sustainable period of MSD revenue growth, leading to a multiple re-rating.

• KMT quarterly sales missed while guides Q1 EPS and revenue below consensus.
• ROK posted EPS beat on better revenue and raises FY EPS and organic growth guidance.

• JOBY first conforming aircraft enters final assembly, marking step toward commercial launch
• LDOS upgraded from Hold to Buy at Jefferies and raise tgt to $205 citing potential to benefit from DoD priorities (FAA, Maritime, Golden Dome) for 50% of sales exposure and AI beneficiary w/ est. $30MM savings in 2025 (+20bps).
• PLTR making new record highs, building on weekly gains on earnings and topping $180 for first time ever.

• DOW, LYB shares were weaker as PE prices settled flat for July, but net discounting appeared more and settled down 3 cents vs. expectations of being flat.
• MOS shares weak as missed on EBITDA in qtr driven by higher operating expenses; unexpectedly higher provisions / idle time / turnaround expenses drove the miss; Q2 adj EPS $0.51 vs. est. $0.73; Q2 revs $3.0B vs. est. $3.1B.
• VVV reported EPS and revenue in line, adj EBITDA came in better; narrowed FY EPS and revenue guidance ~in line with consensus estimates.
• NEM, AEM, AU, EGO, GFI, WPM among gold miners hitting 52-week highs today.

• In Advertising/Ad Tech: DV Q2 revs rose 21% y/y to $189M vs. est. $180.4M; Q2 adj Ebitda $57.3M vs. est. $53.1M; raises full-year 2025 revenue growth guidance to ~15%, reaffirms full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA margin of 32%; sees Q3 revenue between $188M-$192M vs. est. $186.6M. UK’s competition watchdog clears OMC’s $13.25B deal to buy IPG.
• In social media: SNAP shares fall following 2Q25 earnings as advertising revenue grew just 4% Y/Y in 2Q25, while North American DAU fell 1M Q/Q for the second consecutive quarter (shares downgraded at Citizens)

• ANET reported a strong Q2 driven by ‘Product’ rev of $1.88B, ~6% above consensus $1.78 as hyperscaler demand outpaced market fears and updated the CY25 rev outlook to ~25% vs the prior 17% guide; product deferred revenue grew 57% QoQ ending the qtr at ~ $1.9B.
• APPS upgraded to Neutral at Bank America after results saying they delivered its second quarter of growth in a row since Q223, printing +11% Y/Y topline growth, well above BOFA (+5% Y/Y). ODS grew a notable +18% Y/Y growth, the highest quarterly growth in 3 years – while AGP declined 5% Y/Y but grew Q/Q.
• KVYO shares rose after the company raised annual revenue forecast for the second time this year to $1.195B-$1.203B above its prior target of $1.171B-$1.179B and better Q3 revs $297M-$301M vs. est. $289.7B.
• QLYS delivered a solid quarter highlighted by +10% revenue growth and >300 bps of OM outperformance.
• RNG reported solid Q2 results with beats across the board, and management modestly raised its FY25 EPS and FCF guidance 100-150bps; operating margins have more than doubled from ~10% to over 20% in the past 5 years and Oppenheimer upgraded to Outperform as expects 50-100bps annual expansion.

• AMD delivered a strong Q2, with revenue of $7.685B, up 32% Y/Y & 3% Q/Q, and a solid $270M upside to Street expectations of $7.415B, and gave an equally encouraging Q3 outlook for $8.7B, up 13% Q/Q & up 28% Y/Y, with an even larger $377M upside vs the consensus of $8.323B even when considering the projected $1.5B of lost revenue over the two quarters from the heightened export restrictions of AMD’s and Nvidia’s AI accelerators.
• CRUS shares fell; delivered better-than-expected Q1 results with revenue beating by 12%, and EPS 38% ahead of expectation with the guidance 8% and 10% above consensus, respectively. The upside was largely driven by smartphone strength and increasing traction in adjacent markets, though management believes some demand is being pulled into 1H. However, the full year volume and sales outlook remains unchanged.
• SMCI shares tumbled after Q4 revs $5.76B missed the consensus est. of $5.89B hit by intense competition from larger server makers for high-performance computers used to train artificial intelligence models (results weighed on DELL).
• SWKS shares flat after the Apple chip supplier forecasts Q4 revenue between $1B-$1.03B, well above estimates of $887.4M on better profit outlook following a Q3 rev beat of $965M vs. est. $940.9M.