Daily Commentary: August 07, 2025

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Dips Are Revealing

Posted by Pete Stolcers on August 07
www.oneoption.com

Last week the market dropped after a weak jobs report and buyers stepped in.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – When dips are brief and shallow it is a sign that buyers are aggressive. The drop last week was scooped up Monday and the drop Tuesday was scooped up yesterday. The S&P 500 is up overnight and it is within striking distance of the all-time high.

The economic news has been weak, but the market is focused on a rate cut in September. The uptrend is strong and it will take a lot to discourage buyers. The news is light the next couple of weeks and there is nothing to stand in the way of this rally except for profit taking.

The next big news event is the Jackson Hole symposium where Powell will speak. If he balks at a rate cut, the market will drop. It is counting on monetary easing after a round of weak economic reports. A dovish statement is priced in.

How can initial jobless claims remain steady at 225K when employment conditions are deteriorating? Good question, they should be rising as unemployed workers file for benefits. This morning initial jobless claims came in at 226K… go figure.

We are in plug your nose and buy territory. I’ve been here before and when the tone sours it happens very quickly. Until then, dips are buying opportunities.

I mentioned that the only thing standing in the way of this freight train is profit taking. Big gaps up will attract sellers and we do not chase them. We have to wait for the bid check. This morning I am going to look for shorts to start the day. Why, you just told us to focus on the long side? Because there is a chance that this gap up will produce a reversal and if it gains traction I want to be ready for that. If the market is in a gap and go, I will let it go. I won’t chase and I know that I will have an opportunity to get long later this morning. If the market moves into the gap in a wimpy fashion, I will also have time to line up longs. I will look for stocks that are strong relative to the market and I will wait for SPY support. In this scenario I won’t feel like I am chasing the gap up and I will have time to evaluate stocks and market strength.

I don’t see any overnight news that would justify this gap up so I am skeptical.

Overseas markets were up nicely and some of that might have been in response to our rally yesterday.

This is a time to tread cautiously. The move lower last week provided some movement so trading conditions have been decent. Now that the gap from Friday has been filled I am expecting rather dull trading during the next week and resistance will build at the all-time high. Be patient and wait for your set ups. The only way I will trade early today is if I sense a gap reversal. Then I will take some early shorts. Nice long red candles instantly into the gap in the first 3 bars is what I am looking for. If I get anything else, I am going to wait for a buy to set up. Error on the side of caution and don’t piss your capital away.

Support is at the high from Wednesday and resistance is at $640.

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