Early Look

Wednesday, August 13, 2025

Another massive stock market global rally again overnight as Asian markets surge and Europe is trading higher, while US futures point to another record high, rallying on hopes the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September following in-line consumer price inflation (CPI) data at Tuesday lifted markets. Interest-rate futures indicate traders now see a 96% chance the Fed will cut rates next month, according to CME Group data, up from 86% Monday. The S&P 500 posted another all-time high on Tuesday, the 16th of the year. This follows 57 all-time highs in 2024, the 5th most of any year in history. The Nasdaq also ended at record closing highs, as news that July inflation rose broadly in line with expectations bolstered bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month. The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in July, while headline annual inflation came in slightly below forecasts, drawing calls from U.S. President Trump to lower interest rates (core CPI came in slightly hotter).

It has been a massive rally since mid-April, with stocks surging on the back of strong tech earnings, easing global trade tensions, less impact from tariffs, and increased rate cut expectations, along with general upside momentum. The Interest rate-cut trade came into play on Tuesday as the Russell 2000 Small caps posted its best day vs large caps since November 6, the day after the election, rising just shy of 3%. The Dow Transport Index also put in a nearly 3% advance on Tuesday, surging over 450 points behind huge gains in airlines after positive industry data. Overnight the dollar weakened against the euro, the pound, the Swiss franc and the yen.

In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index jumped another 556 points to 43,274, the Shanghai Index advanced 17 points to 3,683, and the Hang Seng Index surged 643 points to 25,613. In Europe, the German DAX is jumping 20 points to 24,231, while the FTSE 100 gains 12 points to 9,159. Oil prices slid after the IEA noted supply overtaking demand this year, while investors awaited Friday’s meeting between President Trump and Russian leader Putin. The International Energy Agency on Wednesday raised its forecast for oil supply growth this year following OPEC+’s decision but lowered its demand forecast due to lackluster demand. No fear as the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) fell to 14.50 on Wednesday, down from a reading just above 20 at the start of the month. It’s on pace for its lowest closing since Dec. 24 last year.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 483.52 points, or 1.10%, to 44,458.61
• The Nasdaq Composite surged 296.50 points, or 1.39%, to 21,681.90
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 66.27 points, or 2.99%, to 2,282.78

• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: ALLO ALVO ARAY BEAT CAPR CDXS CHOR CSCO DLO EQX FOSL KE LVLU NOA RILY RRGB SPIR SSKN STN SURG VXRT XOS

• Deutsche Bank Transportation Conference, 8/12-8/13, in New York
• Mizuho Industrials & Chemicals Conference (virtual), 8/13
• Needham 7th Annual Needham FinTech & Digital Transformation 1×1 Conference, 8/13-8/14
• Oppenheimer 28th Annual Tech, Internet &Comms Conference, 8/11-8/13
• Stifel Biotech Summer Summit, 8/11-8/13, in Newport, RI

• The US collected a record $28 billion in customs duties in July 2025, which was 4x higher than the same month in 2024.
• @PeterMallouk noted on “X”: “Credit card debt is the silent killer. Over 12% of balances are 90+ days delinquent – near the highest in 14 years – with interest rates north of 21%. Nothing destroys wealth faster.”

• Mercedes-Benz (MBGYY) is in advanced talks with France’s BNP Paribas about the sale of the German carmaker’s leasing subsidiary Athlon, Bloomberg News reported. The subsidiary is valued at about 1 billion euros ($1.17 billion), it cited one of the sources as saying.
• PetMed Express (PETS) shares fell after the company said CEO Sandra Campos and CFO Robyn D’Elia have resigned from their positions with the company. Chair of the board Leslie Campbell has assumed the role of interim CEO and Douglas Krulik, the company’s CAO, has assumed the role of interim principal CFO.

• Everus Construction Group (ECG) Q2 revs $921.5M vs. est. $738.5M, on EPS $1.03; raises FY rev outlook to $3.3B-$3.4B from prior view $3.0B-$3.1B (est. $3.1B); boosts FY25 adjusted EBITDA view to $240M-$255M from $210M-$225M and backs FY25 CapEx view $65M-$70M.
• ProFrac Holding (ACDC) 18.75M share Spot Secondary priced at $4.00.
• Venture Global (VG) shares rise after Tribunal sides with the company in a legal battle against Shell (SHEL) over cargo delivery from the Calcasieu Pass export facility; Shell had accused VG of favoring spot sales over contract obligations. The decision of the tribunal is in keeping with Venture Global’s position that it has always honored its agreements with its customers.

• Circle Internet Group Inc (CRCL) files for offering 2M Class A shares; selling stockholders offering 8M Class A shares.
• H&R Block (HRB) Q4 revs $1.11B vs. est. $1.07B; boosts quarterly dividend by 12% to $0.42 per share; sees FY26 adjusted EPS $4.85-$5.00 vs. consensus $5.14 and sees FY26 revenue $3.875B-$3.895B vs. consensus $3.83B

• Eli Lilly (LLY) launched an injector pen for Mounjaro, its weight-loss drug, for 14,000 rupees, or $160, for its starting dose in India – Reuters reported.
• Grail Inc. (GRAL) Q2 adj EBITDA ($78.3Mm) vs est. ($89.25Mm) on revs $35.5Mm vs est. $37.57Mm.
• Journey Medical (DERM) Q2 EPS ($0.16) vs est. ($0.11) on revs $15Mm vs est. $14.93Mm.
• NeuroPace (NPCE) Q2 EPS ($0.26) vs est. ($0.22) on revs $23.52Mm vs est. $23.1Mm, gr mgn 77.1%; guides FY revs $94-98Mm vs est. $94.82Mm, gross mgn 75-76% vs prior 73-75%.
• Ocugen (OCGN) announces positive scientific advice from the European Medicines Agency related to the approval pathway for OCU410ST, a modifier gene therapy for Stargardt Disease.
• Zevra Therapeutics (ZVRA) Q2 revs $25.9M vs. est. $22.5M; Q2 net income $74.7M vs. est. $61.1M; completed $150 mln PRV sale, strengthening financial position; plans to expand MIPLYFFA benefits to more patients in Europe; believes it has sufficient resources for strategic priorities without capital markets.

• CuriosityStream (CURI) 7M share Spot Secondary priced at $3.50
• Intapp Inc. (INTA) Q4 adj EPS $0.27 vs est. $0.23, adj op Inc $21.3Mm vs est. $20.7Mm on revs $135.039Mm vs est. $132Mm; guides Q1 revs $134.8-135.8Mm vs est. $134.45Mm, adj op Inc $16-17Mm vs est. $20.43Mm and adj EPS $0.18-0.20 vs est. $0.22; sees FY revs $566.7-570.7Mm vs est. $563.87Mm, adj op Inc $96-100Mm vs est. $95.99Mm and adj EPS $1.09-1.13 vs est. $1.04.
• Lumentum Holdings (LITE) Q4 adj EPS $0.88 vs est. $0.80 on revs $480.7Mm vs est. $466.37Mm, adj op mgn 15%, adj gr mgn 37.8%; guides Q1 revs $510-540Mm vs est. $497.29Mm and adj EPS $0.95-1.10 vs est. $0.87.
• Luminar technologies (LAZR) Q2 adj EPS ($1.49) vs est. ($1.18) on revs $15.6Mm vs est. $17.28Mm; guides Q3revs $17-19Mm vs est. $22.28Mm; sees FY revs $67-74Mm vs est. $86.32Mm and gross profit ($10Mm) to ($5Mm) though likely at the higher end.
• Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Q2 EPS ($0.13) vs est. ($0.05) on revs $1.8Mm vs est. $1.87Mm; ended qtr with approx $571.6Mm cash and equivalents.
• SPX Technologies (SPXC) 2.66M share Secondary priced at $188.00.
• Tencent Holdings Ltd.’s (TCEHY) reported revenue of 184.5 billion yuan ($25.7 billion) for the three months ended June, about 3% higher than analysts’ projections. It managed double-digit growth in most major business segments including advertising; domestic revenue rises 17% to 40.4 billion yuan and international revenue climbing 35% to 18.8 billion yuan.
• Webtoon (WBTN) shares jump after announced a deal with Walt Disney (DIS) to bring about 100 series to its English-language app.