Daily Commentary: August 13, 2025

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Plug Your Nose and Buy

Posted by Pete Stolcers on August 13
www.oneoption.com

It doesn’t matter why the market is making a new all-time high. Buyers are in control so go with it.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – Yesterday the CPI came in at .2% and that was an improvement from the previous .3% reading. Was the news so compelling that it justified a massive market rally? No, it was simply better than feared and buyers were looking for a reason.

The bad news is mounting and global weakness is starting to find its way to the US. The weak jobs report and the poor ISM Services reading didn’t dampen spirits. Those pullbacks were instantly gobbled up and that was a sign that the market was heading higher.

This is a light news cycle and there’s nothing to stand in the way of this rally except for profit taking. Tomorrow’s PPI should be in line with expectations.

Trump is going to speak today two hours after the open so be aware of that event. He is going to meet with Putin in Alaska Friday. It has been hard to get Putin to the table and I believe for that reason the rhetoric after the meeting will be positive even if little is accomplished. This is the first step in negotiating a peace deal. Russia is perilously close to an economic collapse so it needs to tread cautiously. New sanctions could lead to a credit crisis.

The trade deal with China has been extended 90 days. This is a sign that China has leverage and that rare earth supplies are running low. If the meeting with Putin goes poorly, I don’t believe we will be able to impose the 50% tariff surcharge to penalize China and India as they buy oil from Russia. The war is actually good for China. They are able to buy oil at a deeply discounted price and the conflict is distracting the world while they eye up Taiwan.

The market is poised to gap up on the open. Don’t chase this move. There is nothing to justify it overnight. There will be a bid check and once support is confirmed you can start buying. I like looking for stocks that have recently been strong and that have pulled back slightly. That round of profit taking will provide a good entry point. We know that buyers are interested and the dip provides nice upside potential for the stock. That room provides us with steady price action and it is easier to stick with the position.

Support is at $642 and resistance is at…?

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