Closing Recap

Tuesday, July 29, 2025

The S&P 500 index snapped its string of consecutive record highs at 6-days, though major averages overall barely budged, staying in tight trading range as Wall Street remains content/showing no fear despite several upcoming market moving catalysts. Today was dominated by earnings (and will be all week), along with tons of trade/tariff comments by gov’t officials (Bessent, Greer, Lutnick) going over the recent negotiations with China. The dollar hit 1-month highs, oil prices surged, and Treasury yields slumped following the array of comments. S&P futures (Spuz) dipped below the Friday low of 6,401, touching 6,400 briefly before bouncing. Treasury prices rose, as yields fell (10-yr -8bps to 4.34%) after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US and China will continue discussing the terms of a tariff truce extension, and President Donald Trump will make the final call following the conclusion of trade delegates meeting today. Yields extended declines following results of a $44B 7-year Treasury auction this afternoon. Trump said India will likely face a 20% to 25% tariff, though a deal isn’t finalized. On individual stock news, the day had two M&A deals, one in energy (BKR/GTLS) and a monster one in rails (UNP/NSC) and one speculative in cyber security (WSJ reported CYBR/PANW are in talks). Healthcare stocks tumbled on MRK, NVO, UNH earnings/guidance results; transports were lower behind UPS pulling guidance; defensive/dividend paying sectors such as utilities and REITs outperformed on lower yields, while technology rallied behind chips. Other tech outperformers were CLS, SANM in the EMS space, CDNS in the EDA space and GLW in optical. Big movers to downside on earnings included PYPL, SPOT, SWK, and SPOT. We still for the FOMC policy meeting tomorrow (no cut expected) along with the Bank of Canada and then Bank of Japan Thursday; earnings from tech giants Apple, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft the next two days, and key jobs data tomorrow and Friday!

• July Consumer Confidence index 97.2 (consensus 95.0) while June revised to 95.2 (previous 93.0)
• U.S. advance June goods trade balance -85.99B dollars; U.S. advance June wholesale inventories +0.2%; U.S. advance June retail inventories excluding autos unchanged.
• US May 20-metro area home prices +2.8% (consensus +3.0%) from year ago vs +3.4% in April (previous +3.4%) — S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller; May home prices in 20 metro areas -0.3% seasonally adj (consensus -0.2%) vs -0.3% in April (previous -0.3%); May 20-metro area home prices non-adjusted +0.4% vs +0.8% in April (previous +0.8%).

• Oil prices rose, extending gains late day after Treasury Secretary Bessent told Chinese officials that given U.S. secondary tariff legislation on sanctioned Russian oil, China could face high tariffs if it continues to purchase it. Brent crude gained $2.47 or 3.53% to settle at $72.51 per barrel while WTI crude jumped $2.50 or 3.75% to settle at $69.21 per barrel.
• Gold prices edged higher, rising $14.00 or 0.42% to settle at $3,324 an ounce as investors awaited the outcome of U.S.-China trade talks and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:

• In Retail: TPR was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Bank America but raised to $115 PT (from $95) saying the Coach brand has several more quarters of outsized growth ahead, but the 66% YTD surge in the stock price (vs S&P +9%) leaves the shares close to fair value.
• In Consumer Staples: PG Q4 core EPS $1.48 topped est. $1.42 on mostly in-line sales $20.89B, while organic revs rose +2%, vs. est. +1.75%; says it will raise prices on about quarter of its products in U.S. starting this month; guidance was weaker as sees 2026 core EPS $6.83 to $7.09 vs. est. $6.99 and 2026 organic revs 0% to +4%, vs. est. +2.55%.
• In Food & Restaurants: SYY reported a Q2 beat for EPS and sales while guiding FY26 sales growth of approx. 3% – 5% To Approx. $84B – $85B and FY adj EPS growth between 1-3%; DPZ was downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital saying risk/reward ultimately appearing too balanced at current levels to warrant the Outperform.

Homebuilders, Building Products, Home Furnishing:

• In Appliance/Household retail: WHR shares tumbled after its top and bottom line Q2 results missed estimates while slashing its full-year adjusted earnings guidance to between $6-$8 a share, below the prior guide of $10 a share and recommended that its board cut the quarterly dividend nearly in half; BYON posted a smaller-than-expected Q2 EPS loss while revs fell -28% y/y, but topped estimates; SWK shares slumped as Q2 revs $3.95B missed the $4B estimate and EPS of $1.08 was down on a y/y basis; warned it still sees a significant hit to 2025 earnings from tariffs.
• Tariff impact on construction costs breakdown as per UBS analysis. With the Aug 1st deadline quickly approaching, UBS update its previous analyses and now estimate a total potential tariff cost impact of ~$6.8k per average single-family home (vs $8.2k prior). Within this estimate, UBS incorporate the most recently announced reciprocal tariff rates (~$6.27k/ home) by country in addition to the 50% tariff on copper (~$553/home). UBS’s estimates assume materials account for 25% of the sale price of an average home (or ~$103.8k) and ~7% of the materials used in residential construction are imported and directly exposed to a weighted average incremental tariff of ~20%.

Autos, Leisure, Gaming & Lodging:

• In Autos: STLA said it faced greater headwinds this year including a 1.5-billion-euro impact from U.S. tariffs for 2025, with operating income in the second half set to be in the low-single digits following a tough first half; the 1.5-billion-euro ($1.73B) tariff impact was at the higher end of its recent forecast range of 1.0-1.5B euros.
• In Pool & Leisure: LESL shares tumbled after guided Q3 revs $500M vs. est. $563.3M, lower EPS view and withdrew 2025 guidance last night; also in Pool, PNR was downgraded to underperform at BOFA today saying weak consumer spending and weak resi construction will drag the rest of the portfolio
• In Casinos & Gaming: Citizen’s research noted in the iGaming space, FanDuel grows its top position in Q225; Fanatics improves, while BetMGM loses ground. Total industry iGaming revenue increased ~31% in Q2, compared to 25% in Q125, while all major operators outside BetMGM increased revenue QoQ. FanDuel increased its number one market share position by 26 bps QoQ (27%), up ~700 bps in three years, while DKNG lost 56 bps QoQ to 24% share. Share for RSI and CZR were roughly flat QoQ, but Fanatics share is now near 3%, from <1% in early 2024.

Energy

• In Oil Services: BKR pays $13.6 billion cash deal to buy GTLS edging out rival suitor FLS and confirming a report by the Financial Times on Monday night. The FLS/GTLS agreement has now been terminated. The proposed deal for GTLS by BKR is $210 per share in cash.
• In Utilities: DUK agreed to sell its Tennessee Piedmont Natural Gas business to SR for $2.5 billion; proceeds to fund Duke Energy’s $83B capital plan; $800M proceeds to offset piedmont natural gas debt.
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Financials

• In Crypto: COIN is in advanced talks to acquire India’s CoinDCX, reports Mint. The deal could value CoinDCX at under $1B, significantly lower than its $2.2B peak valuation three years ago. https://tinyurl.com/hsbrhm27 ; FIS announced a new partnership with a subsidiary of CRCL to give financial institutions the ability to transact in USDC, the world’s largest regulated stablecoin; BKKT shares tumble; 6.75M share Spot Secondary priced at $10.00 (a 41.8% discount to last close); said it will use proceeds to purchase bitcoin and other digital asset classes; BMNR announces $1B stock repurchase plan.
• In Fintech: PYPL beat Q2 earnings and revenue as transaction margin dollars rose 7% to $3.84 billion, marking the sixth straight quarter of profitability growth; Venmo revenue grew more than 20% y/y; Total payment volume for Venmo increased 12%, its highest growth rate in three years, but shares fell; OLO said it rejected a $13/share unsolicited acquisition offer; SOFI shares rose after results beat and guided annual EPS of $0.31, above its prior range of $0.25-$0.27 and sees annual revenue at $3.38B, above previous forecast of $3.24-$3.31B.
• Card Services: the WSJ reported JPM is in advanced talks to take over Apple’s credit-card program, according to people familiar with the matter. Discussions between the country’s biggest bank and Apple accelerated in recent months, with Apple telling JPMorgan it is the tech giant’s preferred choice to replace Goldman Sachs as its card partner.
• In Insurance: BRO shares tumbled on earnings results, hitting shares of other multi-line insurance brokerage names like AJG, RYAN on the day.

REITs:

• BRX reported a 2Q25 FFO beat, and management raised its FY25 FFO guidance by nearly 1% at the midpoint. Consensus of $2.22 is at the low end of the revised range.
• KRC reported 2Q25 FFO of $1.13, which beat consensus and KBCM of $0.99. The beat was driven primarily by cash lease termination fee income of ~$0.09, deferred settlement and restoration fee income of ~$0.01, and other revenues; mgmt raised its FY25 FFO guidance range by $0.15 (+3.8% at the midpoint) to a new range of $4.05-$4.15 ($3.85-$4.05 prior)
• WELL reported strong results in 2Q25, which were highlighted by: 1) a 4%+ NFFO beat vs. consensus; 2) a 2025 NFFO guidance increase (+2.6%) that is modestly above consensus (+1.6%); and 3) an estimated $3B of investments that are expected to close late this year

Healthcare

Biotech & Pharma:

• APLS announced that Empaveli had received FDA label expansion approval to be the first treatment for C3G and ICMPGN in patients > 12 years old.
• AZN beat second-quarter revenue and profit expectations on robust sales of newer cancer, heart and kidney disease medicines and strong demand in the US, where it has invested $50B to expand amid tariff threats from Washington.
• EXEL shares fell after Cabozantinib net product sales slightly lagged consensus by 2% due to Q2 pricing dynamics; Cabozantinib lagged consensus sales of $529M by 2%, driven by price.
• FULC shares fell after the drug developer’s data update for the 12 mg dose cohort of the Phase 1b PIONEER trial of Pociredir to treat sickle cell disease fell short of the Street’s expectations.
• LLY said its drug, Jaypirca, was more effective in a head-to-head study against ABBV’s Imbruvica when tested in patients with a type of blood cancer.
• MRK Q2 adj EPS $2.13 vs. est. $2.03 on revs $15.81B vs. est. $15.87B; said to cut jobs; sees $3B savings from restructuring; sees FY sales between $64.3B-$65.3B vs. prior view $64.1B-$65.6B; said it will extend its shipments pause of cancer-preventing Gardasil vaccine to China through at least the end of this year on softer demand.
• NVO sees FY sales at constant FX +8% to +14%, below prior forecast +13% to +21% driven by lower growth views for Wegovy, Ozempic in U.S.; follows Q2 results.
• PTCT announces FDA approval of Sephience™ (Sepiapterin) for the treatment of children and adults living with phenylketonuria.
• SRPT shares jumped as the FDA recommended the removal of the voluntary hold for ambulatory patients who may now receive Elevidys, a gene therapy for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD). The FDA’s investigation has concluded that the death of the 8-year-old boy is unrelated to the gene therapy product itself.

Healthcare Services & MedTech movers:

• In Managed care: UNH reinstated full-year profit forecast that it pulled over two months ago, but its guidance fell short of analysts’ already-lowered expectations; guided FY EPS of at least $16 per share, lower than its previous expectation of $26 to $26.50 per share as the U.S. health insurer battles rising costs in its government-backed plans.
• Life Sciences: RGEN Q2 revenue rises 15% y/y to $182M, beating analyst expectations while adjusted EPS for Q2 misses estimates at $0.37; raises full-year revenue guidance, citing strong non-COVID growth while expects 2025 organic non-COVID growth of 12.5%-15.5%
• Healthcare Services/Facilities: NEO shares tumbled after cutting their full-year outlook after posting a wider loss and lower-than-expected revenue in the second quarter; said it now expects revenue of $720M-$726M for FY, down from a prior outlook of $747M-$759M and a wider net loss. UHS’s 2Q results look somewhat mixed vs. Street expectations as EBITDA beat by 5% but included higher Medicaid supplemental payments (Tennessee SDP) partially offset by a greater-than-expected drag from the new DC hospital. Behavior results look modestly weaker on an underlying basis (ex. TN SDP), with SS volumes improving sequentially but below UHS’s 2-3% target.

Industrials & Materials

• In Transports: Bloomberg reported UNP agreed to buy smaller rival NSC in an $85 billion deal as the merger will create United States’ first coast-to-coast freight rail operation. The combined enterprise value of co expected to be $250B,; deal valued at $320 per share (NSC holders to receive 1 UNP share and $88.82 cash). In package delivery, UPS Q2 adj EPS $1.55 vs. est. $1.56, says on track with full-year savings target from network reconfiguration and efficiency reimagined initiatives; but said given current macro-economic uncertainty, not providing FY REV or operating profit guidance.
• In Industrials: GNRC was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Guggenheim with $190 tgt saying they believe that greater focus on commercial-scale opportunities, combined with the potential for a withdrawal from the troubled residential solar + storage business, support a more positive stance. JCI and FLS shares also both active following earnings results this morning. CARR shares fell after Q2 profit and revs beat consensus as total aftermarket sales for the quarter were up 13%, while only reiterated its full-year 2025 sales and profit forecast.
• In Aerospace & Defense: BA Q2 EPS core loss/share (-$1.24) vs est. loss (-$1.40); Q2 revs $22.75B vs. est. $21.68B; Q2 neg adj free cash flow -$200M, vs. est. Negative $1.79B; has delivered 206 737 MAX jets through the first half of the year; Q2 Commercial airplanes rev. $10.87b, vs. est. $10.4b; 787 program production rate is now at seven per month.
• In Heavy Duty machinery (CMI, PCAR), The Environmental Protection Agency will rescind the long-standing finding that greenhouse gas emissions endanger human health, as well as tailpipe emission standards for vehicles. Reuters reported last week that the EPA plans to repeal all greenhouse gas emission standards for light-duty, medium-duty, and heavy-duty vehicles and engines in the coming days after it removes the scientific finding that justified those rules.

Materials, Metals & Mining

• In the Steel sector: NUE posted a Q2 EPS $2.60 (from $2.68 y/y and below est. $2.70), as rising raw material costs pressured the company’s steelmaking segment; it said Q3 EPS to be slightly lower q/q, citing decreased earnings in the steel mills segment and similar results in the steel products and raw materials segments.
• In Chemicals: OLN Q2 revenue rises to $1.76 bln, beating analyst expectations of $1.66B while adjusted EBITDA for Q2 $176.1M was below $278.1M y/y; said expects Q3 adjusted EBITDA between $170M-$210M; CF was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan saying uncertainties over the direction of US tariff policies have led to the change; ECL shares slipped after Q2 profit missed consensus estimates.

Technology

Internet, Media & Telecom

• In Internet: SPOT shares fell as Q2 revs rose 10% y/y to $4.19B euros but below ests 4.26B euros; said unfavorable currency movements reduced y/y revenue growth by about 440 basis points in Q2; Q2 Premium subscribers rose 12% to 276 million, compared with estimate of 273 million; guides Q3 revs 4.2B euros vs. est. 4.48B euros; for NFLX, "Adam Sandler’s ‘Happy Gilmore 2’ debuts to 46.7M views, biggest Netflix U.S. film opening ever
• In the EMS Sector: CLS shares jumped on Q2 EPS/revs beat and raised both the top and bottom end of its year guidance; SANM shares jumped on the open after its results/guidance.
• In EDA Sector: CDNS reported impressive Q2 results, beating revenue handily by $21M/2%, and posted its best HW quarter on record said Keybanc; raised its 2025 outlook by more than it beat (net raise of $19M), despite the six-week temporary restrictions headwind from China; posted Q2 backlog of $6.4B, better than expected.
• In Comm Equipment & Networking: HLIT Q2 beat expectations with both video and broadband driving the upside, its Q3 guidance came in materially below estimates and its fiscal 2025 guidance was not reinstated.
• In Optical: GLW shares rallied on earnings and sales rose 12% y/y to $4.05B, beating ests while its largest unit – Optical communications – reported net sales of $1.57 billion in Q2 and guided Q3 core sales and EPS above estimates.
• In Quantum Compute: IONQ was initiated at Buy and $70 tgt at Rosenblatt as believes IonQ provides an attractive way to gain exposure to the quantum computing market, a market that it sees as the next era of computing; QBTS initiated at Buy and $30 tgt as believes D-Wave offers a differentiated way to gain exposure to the rapidly growing quantum computing market.
• In Software: CYBR shares spiked after the WSJ reported that PANW is in talks to acquire the Israeli cybersecurity provider CyberArk Software; the article said assuming a typical deal premium, a deal could value CyberArk well above its $20B market value. https://tinyurl.com/4cchbrw7 ; BL upgraded to Outperform at Raymond James as it believes the 2H25 set up looks increasingly favorable.

Semiconductors:

• AMD shares outperformed in chips, rising a 5th day as chip stocks continue to lead Nasdaq to fresh records.
• AMKR reported a 2Q beat of $0.22 vs. $0.16 but included a ~$0.07 non-recurring benefit; it said expects an above-seasonal step up in 3Q from regaining a lost last-gen socket earlier in the year and the fall ramp of next-gen premium smartphones but sounded cautious on extending that optimism to 4Q where it sees mixed signals for volumes.
• NVDA placed orders for 300,000 H20 chipsets with contract manufacturer TSM last week, Reuters reported citing two sources, with one of them adding that strong Chinese demand had led the U.S. firm to change its mind about just relying on its existing stockpile.
• ON and NVDA partner to Advance 800V Power for Next-Gen AI Data Centers
• RMBS shares rallied on better top/bottom line Q2 results
• LG Innotek, the components and materials subsidiary of South Korea’s LG Group, has struck a manufacturing partnership with AEVA, which makes 4D LiDAR sensing systems.