Morning Preview: July 30, 2025

Auto PostDaily Market Report

Early Look

Wednesday, July 30, 2025

Futures

Up/Down

%

Last

Dow

10.00

0.02%

44,826

S&P 500

7.25

0.11%

6,413

Nasdaq

52.00

0.22%

23,504

 

 

After snapping its 6-day winning streak of consecutive record closing highs, the S&P 500, along with the Nasdaq and Dow finished slightly lower on Tuesday as investors positioned themselves ahead of a big trading day on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 200 points, with investors considering a possible tariff extension for China and a fresh batch of corporate earnings. A flurry of earnings is due on Wednesday (including results from 2 of the Mag 7 with META, MSFT after the close), alongside the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision and press conference at 2:00 pm and 2:30 pm respectively. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady, but Chair Jerome Powell’s conference could indicate the central bank’s openness to resuming cuts in September. And investors await any updates on major trading partners, such as Canada, Mexico and South Korea, that have yet to score tariff deals with the US. Chinese and U.S. trade negotiators discussed Wednesday of potentially extending a tariff truce over two days of talks but haven’t yet come to an agreement, senior officials said Tuesday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said they would report back Wednesday to President Trump, who will make the final decision on an extension for the truce set to expire on Aug. 12. The Dow fell 0.5%, or 204.57 points. The S&P 500 declined 0.3%, ending its streak of six consecutive record highs, and the Nasdaq composite lost 0.4%. Overnight, in Asian markets, The Nikkei Index slipped -19 points to 40,654, the Shanghai Index rose 6 points to 3,615, and the Hang Seng Index fell -347 points to 25,176. In Europe, the German DAX is up 146 points to 24,264, while the FTSE 100 is down -23 points to 9,112. Early reading of Q2 U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is due at 8:30 a.m. A Reuters survey is estimated to forecast GDP likely increased at a 2.4% annualized rate in the second quarter, after declining at a 0.5% pace in the first quarter. We also get private payroll ADP data at 8:15, ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payroll report.

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

  • The S&P 500 Index dropped -18.91 points, or 0.30%, to 6,370.86
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -204.57 points, or 0.46%, to 44,632.99
  • The Nasdaq Composite dropped -80.29 points, or 0.38%, to 21,098.29
  • The Russell 2000 Index declined -13.76 points, or 0.61% to 2,242.96

Economic Calendar for Today

  • 7:00 AM ET MBA Mortgage Applications Data
  • 8:15 AM ET ADP Private Payrolls for July…est.+75K (prior -33K)
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Q2 advance…est. +2.4%
  • 8:30 AM ET GDP Price Deflator for Q2, advance…est. +2.1%
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Q2 Consumer Spending…est. prior +0.5%
  • 8:30 AM ET PCE Prices for Q2-Advance…est. +2.9%
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Core-PCE Prices for Q2-Advance…est. +2.3%
  • 10:00 AM ET                Pending Home Sales M/M for June…est. +0.3%
  • 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data
  • 2:00 PM ET FOMC Policy Meeting results – no rate change expected

Earnings Calendar:

  • Earnings Before the Open: ADP AEP AMRN ANIK ASC AXTA BG BLCO BLFY BLKB BXMT CHEF CHKP CLH CLVT CMCO COCO CRTO DSX EDU ENTG ETR ETSY EVR FDP FSS FTV FVRR GEHC GNRC GRMN GSK GTES HAYW HESM HOG HSBC HSY HUM IEX INMD IONS ITW KHC LFUS LXP MNRO MO MTRN NAVI ODFL OGE OPCH OSW PAG PUMP RDWR REYN RWT SCL SF SHOO SITE SLGN SMG STNG STRA TEVA TKR TT UMC VFC VIRT VRSK VRT WEC WING WSO WVE
  • Earnings After the Close: AEM AHT AIN ALB ALGN ALKT ALL AM APLD AR ARM AUR AVB AWK AX BHE BKH BN CFLT CGNX CHRW CNMD CNXN CP CSL CTSH CVNA DXCM EBAY EG EOSE EPR EQIX ESI ETD EXR F FE FFIV FICO FLS FMC FORM GFL GH GKOS HOLX HOOD HST INVH IRT KGC LRCX LUNG MAA MCW MDXG META MGM MMSI MOD MSFT MTG MUSA NBIX NTGR NEW NYMT PBI PDS PGRE PI PPC PRU PSA PTC QCOM QTWO RDN RM RSI RUSHA SCI SFM SNBR SUI TENB TK TMDX TROX TS TTEK TTMI TYL UDMY UDR UIS VICI VTR WAY WDC WHD

Other Key Events:

  • Goldman Sachs European AI and Semis Symposium, 7/30-7/31, in London
  • China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI index for July

 

 

Macro

Up/Down

Last

Nymex

-0.70

68.51

Brent

-0.68

71.83

Gold

2.50

3,383.70

EUR/USD

-0.0005

1.1542

JPY/USD

-0.25

148.21

10-Year Note

+0.00

4.328%

 

World News

  • A massive 8.8 magnitude earthquake struck off Russia’s remote east coast Wednesday local time, sending tsunami waves coursing across the Pacific, hitting Hawaii and the West Coast as millions of people from around the world were urged to evacuate to higher ground. The quake is tied for the sixth strongest ever recorded, and is the strongest since 2011, when a 9.0 magnitude earthquake hit northeast Japan.

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

  • Booking Holdings (BKNG) Q2 adj EPS $55.40 vs. est. $50.20 and revs $6.800B vs. est. $6.556B; Q2 adj ebitda $2.400B vs. est. $2.217B; 2Q room nights booked rose 8% to 309M; sees FY25 revenue growth in low double digits; sees 3Q revenue growth 7%-9% and sees 3Q room nights growth 3.5%-5.5%.
  • Caesar’s Entertainment (CZR) Q2 EPS ($0.39) vs est. $0.05, adj EBITDA $955Mm vs est. $948.55Mm; online sports betting and casino division posted significant year-y/y from Q2 2024.
  • Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Q2 adj EPS $1.16 vs est. $1.06, op Inc $64.822Mm on revs $955.825Mm vs est. $948.38Mm.
  • Hershey (HSY) Q2 EPS $1.21 vs. est. $1.00; Q2 revs $2.61B vs. est. $2.52B; cuts FY25 adjusted EPS view to $5.81-$6.00 from $6.00-$6.18 (est. $5.86) while backs FY25 revenue viewed up at least 2%.
  • Mondelez (MDLZ) Q2 EPS $0.73 vs. est. $0.68; Q2 revs $8.98B vs. est. $8.94B; raises quarterly dividend by 6% to $0.50; Q2 gross margin 32.7%; guides FY adjusted EPS growth -10% and rev growth of 5% while maintains organic net revenue growth 2025 outlook.
  • Starbucks (SBUX) Q3 adj EPS $0.50 vs. est. $0.65; Q3 revenue $9.5B vs. est. $9.31B; Q3 global comparable store sales declined (-2%), its 6th straight quarterly contraction and vs. est. (-1.1%), driven by a 2% decline in comparable transactions, partially offset by a 1% increase in average ticket; Q2 North America comparable store sales declined (-2%) and International comp store sales were flat.
  • South Korea’s LG Energy Solution (LGES) has signed a $4.3 billion deal to supply Tesla (TSLA) with energy storage system batteries, said a person familiar with the matter, Reuters reported. The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries will be supplied from LGES’s U.S. factory in Michigan.
  • VF Corp. (VFC) Q1 revs $1.76B tops consensus of $1.7B; posts Q1 EPS loss (-$0.24), less than the (-$0.34) loss estimate; results were helped by an uptick in demand for co’s apparel and footwear, following its efforts to introduce new collections across brands, including The North Face, whose sales had been declining over the past few quarters.

Energy

  • Expand Energy (EXE) Q2 adj EPS $1.10 vs. est. $1.16; Q2 revs $3.69B vs. est. $2.56B; Q2 net income $968M; raises synergy outlook to $600M by 2026; lowers FY25 2025 drilling & completion capex guidance by about $100M to achieve about $2.9B total capex; said to efficiently grow production from year-end 2025 exit rate of about 7.2 bcfe/d to average about 7.5 bcfe/d in 2026
  • Nextracker (NXT) Q1 adj EPS $1.16 vs est. $1.06 on revs $864Mm vs est. $850.2Mm, guides FY revs $3.2-3.45B vs est. $3.331B, adj EBITDA $750-810Mm vs est. $751.81Mm and adj EPS $3.96-4.27 vs est. $3.91.

Financials

  • Visa Inc. (V) Q3 adj EPS $2.98 tops est. $2.85; Q3 revs $10.2B vs. est. $9.84B; Q3 payments volume increased 8% on constant dollar basis; Q3 cross-border volume ex: intra-Europe up 11% on a constant-dollar basis; Q3 total processed transactions up 10% on a constant-dollar basis; sees FY net revenue growth low-double-digit on adj constant dollar basis.
  • ExlService Holdings (EXLS) Q2 adj EPS $0.49 vs est. $0.45 on revs $514.5Mm vs est. $507.2Mm, adj op mgn 19.6%; guides FY revs $2.05-2.07B vs est. $2.06B.
  • Lending Club (LC) Q2 EPS $0.33 vs. est. $0.15; Q2 Book value per common share $12.25, vs $11.52 in the prior year; Q2 ROE 11.1% and ROTCE of 11.8%; Q2 provision for credit losses $39.7M; Q2 originations grew 32% to $2.4B.
  • MARA Holdings (MARA) Q2 revs +64% y/y to $238M vs. est. $221.9M.
  • SoFi Technologies (SOFI) 71.94M share Spot Secondary priced at $20.85.
  • Unum Provident (UNM) Q2 adj EPS $2.07 vs est. $2.21, adj op Inc $361.1Mm on revs $3.361B vs est. $3.34B; guides FY adj EPS approx $8.50 vs est. $8.89.
  • The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will allow in-kind creations and redemptions for crypto exchange-traded products, a move that asset managers have sought since the regulator approved the first set of products tied to the spot price of bitcoin last year.

Healthcare

  • Vinay Prasad, a top official at the FDA, has suddenly departed after a series of controversial decisions about a treatment for boys with Duchenne muscular dystrophy. “Dr. Prasad did not want to be a distraction to the great work of the FDA in the Trump administration and has decided to return to California and spend more time with his family,” Health and Human Services Department spokesperson Andrew Nixon told STAT. (watch gene editing stocks CRSP, CAPR, SRPT, REPL).
  • Humana (HUM) raised its annual profit forecast to be about $17 per share, compared with its previous estimate of about $16.25 (est. $16.38), as the U.S. health insurer bets on its efforts to rein in higher medical costs; reported Q2 medical cost ratio of 89.7%, up from 88.9% a year earlier, but in line with analysts’ estimates of 89.71%; also beat Q2 EPS.
  • Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) announced that it has entered into an exclusive global license agreement with CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited for SYH2086, a preclinical oral small molecule glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist and orforglipron derivative. Madrigal plans to initiate clinical development in the first half of 2026.
  • Penumbra (PEN) Q2 adj EPS $0.86 vs est. $0.82 on revs $339.455Mm vs est. $327.7Mm; guides FY revs $1.355-1.37B vs est. $1.36B, not change to gr mgn or op mgn guide.
  • Teladoc (TDOC) Q2 EPS ($0.19) vs est. ($0.26), adj EBITDA $69.311Mm vs est. $63.5Mm on revs $631.9Mm vs est. $622.7Mm; guides Q3 revs $614-636Mm vs est. $627.98Mm, adj EBITDA $56-70Mm vs est. $76.75Mm and adj EPS ($0.35)-($0.20) vs est. ($0.20); sees FRY revs $2.501-2.548B vs est. $2.516B, adj EBITDA $263-294Mm vs est. $280.55Mm.

Industrials & Materials

  • Avis Rental (CAR) Q2 adj EBITDA $277Mm vs est. $236Mm on revs $3.039B vs est. $3.007B; liquidity position end Q2 nearly $950Mm.
  • FTAI Aviation (FTAI) Q2 EPS $1.57 vs est. $1.62, adj EBITDA $347.805Mm vs est. $288.7Mm on revs $676.2Mm vs est. $579.18Mm.
  • O-I Glass (OI) Q2 adj EPS $0.53 vs est. $0.41 on revs $1.7B vs est. $1.703B; continues to see FY sales in-line with prior year; guides adj EPS $1.30-1.55 vs est. $1.40.
  • PPG Industries (PPG) Q2 adj EPS $2.22, in-line with consensus on revs $4.195B vs. est. $4.16B; top-line performance was led by a 6% organic sales increase in its performance-coatings unit; Organic sales rose 2%, due to higher sales volumes and prices; said expects its volume growth momentum will accelerate in the second half of this year, leading to strong year-over-year earnings growth.
  • Republic Service Group (RSG) Q2 adj EPS $1.77 vs. est. $1.75; Q2 revs $4.24B vs. est. $4.26B; raises quarterly dividend to $0.625; guides FY25 adjusted EPS $6.82-$6.90 vs. est. $6.86 and FY25 revenue $16.675B-$16.75B vs. est. $16.87B.
  • Werner Enterprises (WERN) Q2 adj EPS $0.11 vs est. $0.05, adj op Inc $16.555Mm on revs $753.148Mm vs est. $733.9Mm, adj op mgn 2.2%.

Technology, Media & Telecom

  • Qorvo (QRVO) Q1 adj EPS $0.92 vs est. $0.60 on revs $818.8Mm vs est. $775.56Mm, adj gr mgn 44%; guides Q2 revs $975Mm-$1.075B vs est. $957.28Mm and adj EPS $1.75-2.25 vs est. $1.61.
  • Seagate Technology (STX) Q4 adj EPS $2.59 vs est. $2.45 on revs $2.44B vs est. $2.429B; guides Q126 revs $2.35-2.65B vs est. $2.513B and adj EPS $2.10-2.50 vs est. $2.33.
  • Sensata (ST) Q2 EPS $0.87 vs. est. $0.84; Q2 revs fell -8.9% y/y to $943.4M vs. est. $933.3M; sees Q3 adj EPS $0.81-$0.87 vs. est. $0.83 and revs $900M-$930M vs. est. $916.88M.
  • Teradyne (TER) Q2 non-GAAP EPS $0.57 tops $0.54 estimate on revs $652M vs. est. $651.79M; said have seen a surge in demand as semiconductor makers invest in quality control while scaling up capacity to meet an artificial intelligence-led boom; guides Q3 revs $710M-$770M vs. est. $753M.
  • Varonis Systems (VRNS) Q2 adj EPS $0.03 vs est. $0.01 on revs $152.163Mm vs est. $148Mm; guides Q3 revs $163-168Mm vs est. $161.65Mm and adj EPS $0.07-0.08 vs est. $0.05; sees FY revs $616-628Mm vs est. $620.73Mm and adj EPS $0.16-0.18 vs est. $0.17.
  • Vertiv (VRT) Q2 adj EPS $0.95 vs. est. $0.83; Q2 revs $2.64B tops consensus $2.36B; Q2 backlog was $8.5B and a book-to-bill ratio of approximately 1.2x for the quarter; raises FY25 adjusted EPS view to $3.75-$3.85 from $3.45-$3.65 (est. $3.58) and raises FY25 revenue view to $9.93B-$10.08B from $9.33B-$9.58B vs. est. $9.45B.

_________________________________________________________________

Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.

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