{"id":24722,"date":"2025-03-25T15:07:27","date_gmt":"2025-03-25T20:07:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/market-review-march-25-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-03-25T15:07:27","modified_gmt":"2025-03-25T20:07:27","slug":"market-review-march-25-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/market-review-march-25-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Market Review: March 25, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Closing Recap<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Tuesday, March 25, 2025<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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Index<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Up\/Down<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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%<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Last<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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DJ Industrials<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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4.18<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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0.01%<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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42,587<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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S&P 500<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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9.05<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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0.16%<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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5,776<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Nasdaq<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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83.26<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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0.46%<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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18,271<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Russell 2000<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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-13.99<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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0.66%<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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2,095<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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U.S. stocks took bounced late day to close mostly higher, adding to strong gains on Monday as the S&P 500 index (SPX<\/span>) rose for a 3rd<\/sup> straight day, holding above its 200dma support of 5,750 while the Nasdaq gained behind strength in AAPL<\/span>, AMZN<\/span>, GOOGL<\/span> and TSLA<\/span>. Stocks have posted a nice bounce over the last week after the S&P 500 dropped more than -10% from February highs and the Nasdaq about -15% from its late 2024 highs, as fear has eased recently on hopes of more lenient reciprocal tariffs coming April 2nd<\/sup>. In addition to the White House commentary yesterday on the tariffs, the Fed also showed last week that slowing US<\/span> growth was their top concern which is also providing a little boost to sentiment. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX<\/span>) is down -20% this week, from 3\/10 peak of 29.56, now at 17.41. NYSE<\/span> mkt breadth has decliners outpacing advancers by roughly 1.2:1 margin with Utilities (XLU<\/span>) -1.6% and Healthcare (XLV<\/span>) -1.28% the biggest drags followed by Consumer Staples (XLP<\/span>) and REITs (XLRE<\/span>) – all defensive sectors. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 92.9 in March on the back of a sharp decline in household expectations and an ongoing fall in households’ perception of their present situation. At 65.2, household expectations plunged below their previous cycle low seen in the summer of 2022 when inflation hit a four-decade high and stock prices collapsed over 20%. <\/p>\n

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We are approaching the end of Q1, with major averages down YTD<\/span> thus far, but even more impressive has been the outperformance by European markets over US<\/span> markets. Bespoke invest tweeted: “Q1 is tracking for record outperformance of Europe vs. the US. Best quarters ever (since 1991) for the Euro Stoxx 50 vs. the S&P 500: Q1 2025: +18.5 ppts, Q4 2022: +17.7 ppts, Q4 2003: +13.3 ppts, Q3 1993: +11.8 ppts, Q4 1999: +11.7 ppts.” In a positive outlook heading into Q2, Almanac Trader tweets: “April is the second-best month for DJIA<\/span> (+1.8%) and S<\/span>&P 500 (+1.5%) since 1950 and fourth best for Nasdaq (+1.3%) since 1971. Post-election year April performance is just as good. NASDAQ<\/span>’s 3 April post-election year declines were in 1973, 1993 and 2005.”<\/p>\n

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Economic Data<\/p>\n

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  • March Consumer Confidence index 92.9 (consensus 94.0) and down from 98.3 the previous month; Lowest level since January 2021; confidence expectations index dipped to lowest level in 12 years at 65.2.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
      \n
    • March Richmond Fed factory index -4; vs. est. +1 and Richmond Fed regional business conditions -14.0; prices paid up to +3.75% vs. +2.23% prior; shipments down to -7 vs. +12 prior; employment down to -1 vs. +9.<\/li>\n
    • U.S. Jan wholesale inventories unrevised at +0.8%; U.S. Jan wholesale sales revised to -1.5% (prev -1.3%) and U.S. Jan wholesale stock-to-sales ratio unrevised at 1.33.<\/li>\n
    • January 20-metro area home prices +4.7% (consensus +4.8%) from year ago vs +4.5% in December (previous +4.5%) — S&P CoreLogic case-Shiller; January home prices in 20 metro areas +0.5% seasonally adj (consensus +0.4%) vs +0.5% in December (previous +0.5%). US January 20-metro area home prices non-adjusted +0.1% vs -0.1% in December (previous -0.1%).<\/li>\n
    • U.S. single-family home sales reached an annualized rate of 676K units, slightly below the consensus estimate 679K and compared to January’s rate of 664K units; Feb home sales Northeast -21.4%, Midwest +20.6%, South +6.6%, West -13.6%; Feb new home supply 8.9 months’ worth at current pace vs Jan 9.0 months; median sale price for U.S. homes was $414,500, representing a 1.5% y\/y when the median price was $420,900.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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      Commodities, Currencies & Treasuries<\/p>\n

        \n
      • April gold prices rise $10.30 or 0.34% to settle at $3,025.90 an ounce. Oil prices fell on Tuesday, with WTI crude down -$0.11 to $69.00 per barrel after Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy agreed to a truce with Russia covering the Black Sea and energy infrastructure, though crude prices drew support from the prospect of tighter global supply due to threatened U.S. tariffs on countries buying Venezuelan production.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
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        • The Dollar Index (DXY) takes a breather after a four-day rally, slipping from an almost three-week high after rising earlier in the session as currencies continued to waver on the back of uncertainty about tariffs. U.S. President Donald Trump said not all of his threatened levies would be imposed on April 2 and some countries might get breaks, which helped the mood on Wall Street slightly. <\/li>\n
        • Treasury yields dipped on Tuesday after surging over 8bps on Monday and higher initially on Tuesday before reversing after weaker than expected data. This afternoon, the US Treasury sold $69B in 2-year notes at a yield of 3.984% vs. 3.987% when issued prior, with the bid-to-cover (demand) at 2.66 (vs. 2.56 prior auction) as primary dealers take 10.65% of U.S. 2-year notes sale, direct 13.58% and indirect 75.77%. The 10-yr yield rose as high as 4.37% this morning after yesterday\u2019s spike but ended lower on day around 4.3%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

           <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
          \n

          Macro<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

          		\n

          Up\/Down<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

          		\n

          Last<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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          WTI Crude<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

          		\n

          -0.11<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

          		\n

          69.00<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

          \n

          Brent<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

          		\n

          0.02<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

          		\n

          73.02<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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          Gold<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

          		\n

          10.30<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

          		\n

          3,025.90<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

          \n

          EUR\/USD<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

          		\n

          0.0012<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

          		\n

          1.0812<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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          JPY\/USD<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

          		\n

          -0.92<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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          149.77<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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          10-Year Note<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

          		\n

          -0.023<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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          4.308%<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

           <\/span><\/p>\n

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          Sector News Breakdown<\/p>\n

          Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:<\/p>\n

            \n
          • In Food Sector: MKC <\/span><\/b>reported Q1 adj EPS of $0.60, missing the $0.64 consensus estimate as net income slips -2.2% y\/y to $162.3M vs. est. $173.2M; did maintain its 2025 outlook. KR<\/span><\/b> countersued rival ACI<\/span><\/b> escalating a legal fight between the two companies following the demise of their proposed $25 billion merger that was blocked by courts in December.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
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            • In Retail: Piper said FRPT<\/span><\/b> revenue growth has slowed in recent weeks, driven by notably slower growth with lower- and middle-income consumers, which Piper expects to persist in the near-term. It also has some top-line headwinds in Q125 from pet specialty distributor disruptions and one less shipping day.<\/li>\n
            • In Homebuilders: the sector was pressured after KBH<\/span><\/b> reported a top and bottom line Q1 miss ($1.49\/$1.39B revs vs. est. $1.57\/$1.5B) and guided 2025 revenue in the range of $6.6B-$7B, down from its prior forecast of $7B-$7.5B but was close to in-line with Street ests $6.88B due to fewer new orders in the quarter.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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              Leisure, Gaming & Lodging:<\/p>\n

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              • In Autos: CVNA<\/span><\/b> upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley following with a price target of $280, up from $260 saying a sharp pullback in the share price presents a unique opportunity for investors to gain exposure to a leader in auto retail and fleet fulfillment. TSLA<\/span><\/b> market share in Europe continued to shrink y\/y in February, data showed, as sales of its battery-electric (BEV) brand has sold 42.6% fewer cars in Europe so far this year. MBLY shares jumped after Volkswagen (VOWGY<\/span><\/b>) said on Tuesday it would collaborate with automotive parts suppliers Valeo<\/b> and Mobileye (MBLY<\/span><\/b>) to develop better driver assistance systems for its cars.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
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                • In the Uniform industry: CTAS<\/span><\/b> terminated discussions to acquire UNF<\/span><\/b> in a deal that valued the uniform supplier at $5.3 billion, sending UniFirst shares down. UniFirst had in early January rebuffed a takeover proposal from Cintas for $275 per share in cash and said it was confident of its strategy as a standalone company.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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                  Energy<\/p>\n

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                  • In Oil E&P: EOG<\/span><\/b> was downgraded to Neutral at Mizuho and lowered PT to $140 (from $148) after updating its model for YE2024 disclosures. In Utilities & Solar: OKLO<\/span><\/b> shares fell after posting a wider annual loss and noted that "significant" financial losses were expected into the near future. "We are an early–stage company with a history of financial losses, and we expect to incur significant expenses and continuing financial losses.\u201d (the results\/cash burn weighed on other nuclear names VST<\/span>, CEG<\/span>, NRG<\/span>, TLN<\/span><\/b>); AEP<\/span><\/b> priced a 19.608M share Spot Secondary at $102.00. In solar, CSIQ<\/span><\/b> posted Q4 adjusted EPS loss (-$1.47) vs. est. loss (-$0.24); Q4 revs fell -11% y\/y to $1.52Bvs. est. $1.59B; Q4 Highest single quarter of e-STORAGE shipments to date at 2.2 GWh.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
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                    Financials<\/p>\n

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                    • In Banks: The BKX<\/span><\/b> advanced for the 8th<\/sup> straight day in what has been a nice rebound in banking stocks over the last week as the S&P recovers after falling more than -10% off February all-time highs. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
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                      • In Consumer Finance: ALLY <\/span><\/b>was downgraded to Sell at BTIG, projecting that the company won\u2019t meet its net interest margin (NIM) and return on equity (ROE) targets in the near term due to macroeconomic headwinds and increased competition. COF<\/span><\/b> was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at BTIG with $208 tgt saying i<\/span>f the merger fails with DFS, it thinks COF shares are worth $208. If the merger does go through, BTIG thinks COF shares are worth $427. BTIG’s positive view of Capital One regardless of the merger outcome.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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                        Biotech & Pharma:<\/p>\n

                          \n
                        • AXSM<\/span><\/b> said phase 3 trial for Solriamfetol in Adults with ADHD achieved primary endpoint. Demonstrated substantial and statistically significant improvement in ADHD symptoms as measured by the AISRS total score compared to placebo (p=0.039, primary endpoint, 150 mg solriamfetol).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
                            \n
                          • ILMN<\/span><\/b> shares edge higher after activist investor Keith Meister will join the board of the gene-sequencing maker, and current board member Scott Gottlieb will become chairman, the Wall Street Journal reported.<\/li>\n
                          • MRK <\/span><\/b>signed a deal with Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals worth up to $2 billion, giving the U.S. drugmaker access to an experimental heart disease drug. <\/li>\n
                          • MRK<\/span><\/b> shares declined as much as 5% after MURA<\/span><\/b> said it won’t continue developing its ovarian cancer drug candidate Nemvaleukin to be used in conjunction with Merck’s Keytruda.<\/li>\n
                          • MURA<\/span><\/b> said it is stopping late-stage trials testing its experimental drug, nemvaleukin, with Merck’s Keytruda, to treat ovarian cancer; says trial unlikely to meet main goal as interim analysis shows no significant improvement in overall survival in patients given the combination (10.1 months) vs just chemotherapy (9.8 months). <\/li>\n
                          • SAVA<\/span><\/b> said it will discontinue the development of its drug for Alzheimer’s disease.<\/li>\n
                          • SRRK<\/span><\/b> said regulators in the U.S. and Europe accepted its marketing application for apitegromab as a treatment for spinal muscular atrophy. The FDA decision is expected on or before Sept. 22.<\/li>\n
                          • In Hospital operators: Deutsche Bank recommended buying the sector (HCA<\/span>, THC<\/span>, UHS<\/span><\/b>) noting Healthcare facility stocks have been under enormous pressure both in the lead-up and post the election on concerns around substantial Medicaid cuts to fund the $4.6 trillion Trump tax cuts. HCA is down 20% from its peak, with UHS & THC down 25% from theirs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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                            Industrials & Materials<\/p>\n

                              \n
                            • In Aerospace & Defense: UBS made several changes in European defense as upgraded Thales (THLLY<\/span><\/b>) and Saab (SAABY<\/span><\/b>) to Buy while downgrading Leonardo (FINMY<\/span><\/b>) to Neutral. UBS adopts a hybrid top-down and bottom-up approach to modelling defense company financials given the rapidly changing outlook and the scale of industry change underway. UBS believes the greatest opportunities are in quality defense stocks over value.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
                                \n
                              • In Chemicals: Citigroup trimmed calendar Q125 and FY25 estimates by <1% and ~1% across the North American Industrial gases group (APD<\/span>, LIN<\/span><\/b>) on weaker volumes from industrial uncertainty partially offset by less negative FX and better pricing. An industrial recession over the last 18-24 months has not reached a material inflection, and CITI believes the risk to industrial production still lingers. MOS<\/span>, NTR <\/span><\/b>and CF <\/span><\/b>shares slipped after headlines U.S. to help restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports.<\/li>\n
                              • In Metals & Mining: Copper producers (FCX<\/span>, SCCO<\/span><\/b>) remain strong as copper prices hit new all-time highs on tariffs; gold miners (AEM<\/span>, NEM<\/span>, GOLD<\/span><\/b>) remain strong as gold prices hold above $3,000 an ounce, holding near record highs as haven play.<\/li>\n
                              • In Paper & Packaging: IP<\/span><\/b> shares jumped after the packaging company outlined its targeted earnings and sales growth for the coming years during a presentation to investors; said it is aiming for roughly 3% to 4% long-term market growth in North America, as well as in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. <\/li>\n
                              • In Transports: shares of UPS<\/span><\/b> fell to lowest levels since June 2020, adding to recent weakness; Stock has been in freefall on slowing consumer spending fears last few weeks on weak airline outlooks (AAL<\/span>, DAL<\/span><\/b>) and then last week FDX <\/span><\/b>missing and cutting guidance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
                                \n

                                Technology<\/p>\n

                                  \n
                                • AI infrastructure weakness, storage, memory, data center, power all weak on the back of Joe Tsai (BABA<\/span><\/b>) saying the pace of AI data center buildouts in the US may be running ahead of demand; VRT<\/span>, DELL <\/span><\/b>, as well as nuclear demand names VST<\/span>, CEG<\/span>, TLN<\/span><\/b> were all weaker.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
                                    \n
                                  • In Telecom & Media: CCI<\/span><\/b> disclosed that Steven Moskowitz, President and CEO, has been terminated; Dan Schlanger, EVP and CFO, will serve as interim CEO, effective immediately. Schlanger will continue to serve as the Company’s CFO until April 1, at which time Sunit Patel will assume the role of EVP and CFO.<\/li>\n
                                  • In Internet: GOOGL <\/span><\/b>said its Waymo to launch robotaxi service in Washington D.C. in 2026. For META<\/span><\/b>, EU set to hit Meta with fine that could stretch to $1B or more for alleged violation of antitrust rules \u2013 NY Post reported. Separately, META<\/span><\/b> to introduce $14 monthly fee for ad-free Instagram and Facebook in the UK.<\/li>\n
                                  • In Security Software: CRWD<\/span><\/b> was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BTIG saying the company has demonstrated its dominance in the core endpoint security target market. The firm notes its fieldwork leads them to believe that CRWD is best positioned of any vendor to win the Security Information and Event Management market.<\/li>\n
                                  • In IT Services & Consulting: NET<\/span><\/b> was double upgraded to Buy (from Underperform) at Bank America and raise PT to $160 from $60 citing differentiated AI offering, security momentum. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n

                                    <\/p>\n