{"id":24718,"date":"2025-03-25T09:29:19","date_gmt":"2025-03-25T14:29:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/?p=24718"},"modified":"2025-03-25T09:29:19","modified_gmt":"2025-03-25T14:29:19","slug":"daily-commentary-march-25-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/daily-commentary-march-25-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Daily Commentary: March 25, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"
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What This Bounce Will Tell Us<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
Posted by Pete Stolcers on March 25
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We finally got the market bounce. It is going to provide valuable information and here’s what I’ll be watching.<\/h4>\n

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – The market shot higher yesterday on relatively light volume and it closed right at the 200-day MA. This was a gap and go and most of the gains were realized in the first hour of trading. The rest of the day the market traded in a compressed range. The news outlets will always find a reason to justify moves and a softer stance on tariffs was cited. Those winds will continue to swirl and without any specifics, I believe this was simply an oversold bounce. The tariffs did not cause the market drop, global economic weakness did. <\/p>\n

The news is fairly light this week and there aren’t many catalysts. Consumer Confidence will be released this morning and it has been in a steady decline the last four months. <\/p>\n

The market rally is continuing this morning and the SPY is above the 200-day MA. Global markets are also higher. <\/p>\n

The price action last fall tells me that buyers are not aggressive. The drop this year tells me that sellers are aggressive. It’s as simple as that. You can take all of the comments from all of the “talking heads” and throw them out the window. This is all that matters to me. My bearish thesis is supported by weakening global and domestic economic conditions.<\/p>\n

I want to see a wimpy D1 bounce on light volume with mixed overlapping candles. I want to see weak intraday price action with big retracements and plenty of bid checks for every move higher. If I see this it will tell me that this is only a bounce. I would like to see SPY $585 preserved and I do not want to get above it. If the market does bounce that high, I want it to happen over an extended period of time. That will be a sign that sellers are near. When this bounce hits resistance, I want to see the floor drop out at the 200-day MA. When I have all of these elements, I will be ready to enter longer-term bearish swing trades. If I see something less, I will keep my swing trading powder dry. I will be watching for stocks that are struggling to rally above key resistance levels and that have relative weakness. They will be excellent shorts when the market rolls over.\u00a0<\/p>\n

From a day trading standpoint there will be some buying opportunities. Try to focus on stocks that have been able to preserve major support levels and that are bouncing off of them. In these instances, you know that there’s support and RS. Be patient and don’t chase. This is only a bounce. Don’t overstay your welcome. This bounce might last a week and after that I would focus on finding great shorts. <\/p>\n

Support is the 200-day MA and resistance is at $585.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Content is provided by OneOption, LLC<\/a>, which has no affiliation with Regal Securities, Inc. (“Regal”) This commentary is provided for information purposes only, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation by Regal to buy or sell securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Regal has not participated in the creation of the OneOption content and does not directly or indirectly endorse the content. Any reliance on this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What This Bounce Will Tell Us Posted by Pete Stolcers on March 25 www.oneoption.com We finally got the market bounce. It is going to provide valuable information and here’s what I’ll be watching. PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – The market shot higher yesterday on relatively light volume and it closed right at the 200-day MA. This was a gap and … Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":1318,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24718","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-1option-commentary"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24718","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24718"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24718\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24719,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24718\/revisions\/24719"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1318"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24718"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24718"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24718"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}