{"id":24699,"date":"2025-03-20T08:53:18","date_gmt":"2025-03-20T13:53:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/?p=24699"},"modified":"2025-03-20T08:53:18","modified_gmt":"2025-03-20T13:53:18","slug":"daily-commentary-march-20-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/daily-commentary-march-20-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Daily Commentary: March 20, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n

Don’t Trust the Fed Bounce<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
Posted by Pete Stolcers on March 20
\n www.oneoption.com<\/a><\/div>\n
\n

The bounce after the FOMC Statement was mechanical.<\/h4>\n

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – Yesterday the Fed lowered their economic forecast for the year and they raised their inflation expectations. They said that uncertainty is elevated and they feel comfortable with their current policy. After a 10% correction in the last month, this will do little to instill confidence and Asset Managers will be in “risk off” mode. <\/p>\n

After a swift market decline, the odds of a big bounce after a “dovish” statement was high. I expected to see shorts take gains Monday and Tuesday and that would have fueled a small move higher ahead of the statement. When that failed to materialize it told me that shorts were not concerned or that their short covering was offset by long-term sellers. In either case, we did not get the move I expected. After the statement, the market started grinding higher in a very choppy fashion. That triggered some mechanical levels (buy stops) and the market staged a nice rally. This all felt very “fabricated”. If the news was genuinely good, the initial reaction would have been much stronger and we would have seen stacked green candles with no overlap. In the last hour of trading, those gains were quickly erased. <\/p>\n

I am bearish and I’ve been bearish. The threat of a bounce this week was high and the height and duration of the bounce would tell us just how aggressive sellers are. I believe we might have seen the bounce. It barely lasted a week and it only recaptured 100 S&P 500 points. The market hit resistance well below the 200-day MA and that is bearish. <\/p>\n

I will be taking longer-term starter bearish swing positions today. I realize that I am early and that I could take some heat on the positions. I am comfortable with that because I view the upside risk as much lower now that the FOMC is out of the way. I’ve witnessed weak price action at a time when we should have seen a nice bounce. I am not going overboard, but I will add if I have technical confirmation. I feel that the next move is lower and I want to have some short exposure. <\/p>\n

From a day trading standpoint our best scenario is a meager attempt at a bounce. That will buy us time to find the weakest stocks and it will provide a good entry point. The overnight move down was strong this morning and international markets were weak. Triple witching is tomorrow and we could see some volatility. If the market gains momentum either way, it will build on itself. I will be favoring the short side. <\/p>\n

Support is the overnight low (562.50) and resistance is the close from Wednesday ($567).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n
\n

Content is provided by OneOption, LLC<\/a>, which has no affiliation with Regal Securities, Inc. (“Regal”) This commentary is provided for information purposes only, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation by Regal to buy or sell securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Regal has not participated in the creation of the OneOption content and does not directly or indirectly endorse the content. Any reliance on this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Don’t Trust the Fed Bounce Posted by Pete Stolcers on March 20 www.oneoption.com The bounce after the FOMC Statement was mechanical. PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – Yesterday the Fed lowered their economic forecast for the year and they raised their inflation expectations. They said that uncertainty is elevated and they feel comfortable with their current policy. After a 10% correction … Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":1318,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24699","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-1option-commentary"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24699","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24699"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24699\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24700,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24699\/revisions\/24700"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1318"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24699"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24699"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24699"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}