{"id":24666,"date":"2025-03-11T15:11:23","date_gmt":"2025-03-11T20:11:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/market-review-march-11-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-03-11T15:11:23","modified_gmt":"2025-03-11T20:11:23","slug":"market-review-march-11-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/market-review-march-11-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Market Review: March 11, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Closing Recap<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Tuesday, March 11, 2025<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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Index<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Up\/Down<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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%<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Last<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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DJ Industrials<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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-478.23<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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1.14%<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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41,433<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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S&P 500<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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-42.49<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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0.76%<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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5,572<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Nasdaq<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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-32.23<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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0.18%<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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17,436<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Russell 2000<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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4.53<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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0.22%<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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2,023<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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U.S. stocks were lower most of the day, pressured initially after Donald Trump’s said he was increasing the steel and aluminum tariff on Canadian goods to 50% (from 25%) starting tomorrow in retaliation for Canada placing a 25% tariff on “Electricity” coming into the United States, as the global trade tensions intensify. The move pushed the S&P down further (near a -10% drawdown from recent all-time highs in February, or correction territory) while Nasdaq also underperformed. Tariff impact concerns weren’t the only fears investors had today as the Dow Transport index fell for than 3% below 15,000 to its lowest levels since last summer (off all-time highs 16,901 in January of this year) led by weakness in airlines, as DAL<\/span>, AAL<\/span>, LUV<\/span> offered lower outlooks citing slowing travel demand. The impact from the airlines carried to other sectors including lodging (MAR<\/span>, HLT<\/span>), travel (ABNB<\/span>, BKNG<\/span>), theme parks (DIS FUN), and cruise lines (CCL<\/span>, RCL<\/span>) which all saw sharp declines following airlines flagging slower travel demand. However, in a much-needed bounce, stocks caught a late day bounce to pare losses as: 1) the U.S. State Dept said that Ukraine expressed readiness to accept the U.S. proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire…which helped spur a bounce off the lows. That was followed by headlines out of Canada as Premier Ford said they are suspending 25% surcharge on exports of electricity and said Commerce Secretary Lutnick agreed to meet with Ford on Thursday to discuss a renewed USMCA<\/span> ahead of April 2 deadline.  Next up, tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI<\/span>) inflation data!<\/p>\n

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Odds of the US pulling back into a recession have increased in recent weeks on the back of DOGE<\/span> spending cut initiatives, as well as tariff uncertainty, and signs of a slowing economy (recent WMT<\/span> comments, as well as airlines today). Global investors and strategists also getting more cautious on the U.S. as Citigroup downgraded U.S<\/span> equities to neutral from overweight, which it had been since October 2023, while upgrading China to overweight from neutral. Lastly, concerns about the stopgap funding bill in Washington DC<\/span> remain another headache for markets. Coming into the day, the S&P 500 index is now down -8.6% from its February record closing high, while the Dow is off -7.5% from its December 4 record close and the Nasdaq is trading down -12.9% from its December 16 record closing high. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are also on pace to record a 4-week losing streak.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Markets rolled lower at 10:00 after President Trump tweeted about tariffs saying, “Based on Ontario, Canada, placing a 25% Tariff on “Electricity” coming into the United States, I<\/span> have instructed my Secretary of Commerce to add an ADDITIONAL<\/span> 25% Tariff, to 50%, on all STEEL<\/span> and ALUMINUM COMING INTO THE United States FROM<\/span> Canada, ONE OF THE HIGHEST TARIFFING NATIONS ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD. This will go into effect TOMORROW MORNING, March 12th. Also, Canada must immediately drop their Anti-American Farmer Tariff of 250% to 390% on various U.S. dairy products, which has long been considered outrageous. I<\/span> will shortly be declaring a National Emergency on Electricity within the threatened area. This will allow the U.S<\/span> to quickly do what has to be done to alleviate this abusive threat from Canada. If other egregious, long time Tariffs are not likewise dropped by Canada, I<\/span> will substantially increase, on April 2nd, the Tariffs on Cars coming into the U.S. which will, essentially, permanently shut down the automobile manufacturing business in Canada. Those cars can easily be made in the USA!<\/p>\n

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Economic Data<\/p>\n

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  • The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its Small Business Optimism Index fell 2.1 points to 100.7 last month, mirroring declines in both consumer and business confidence as well. The NFIB’s Uncertainty Index rose 4 points to 104, the second-highest reading on record.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
      \n
    • January JOLTS job openings data showed a reading of 7.74M, above the expectation of 7.63M and vs last month’s read of 7.60M last month.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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      Commodities, Currencies & Treasuries<\/p>\n

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      • Oil prices finished higher, with WTI crude +40.22 or 0.33% to settle at $66.25 per barrel, while Brent Crude futures settle at $69.56\/bbl, up 28 cents, or 0.4%. Gold prices rose $2.150 or 0.74% to settle at $2,920.90 an ounce as one of the few asset classes seeing strength today as the dollar declined again vs. the euro as US economic growth fears grow by the day. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
          \n
        • The U.S. dollar rose to a one-week high against the Canadian dollar after President Donald Trump hit Canada with more tariffs, while the euro hit a new four-month peak against the U.S. dollar. The euro rose to as high as $1.0947, its highest since November and has gained more than 5% this month as Germany acts to ramp up defense spending. The U.S. dollar rose to as high as C$1.4521 against the Canadian dollar, its highest level since March 4 before retreating on tariff headlines, back down to C$1.438. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.18% to 147.53 (but down -2% this month). <\/li>\n
        • Treasury yields fell overnight, jumped this morning on JOLTs data and extended gains this afternoon in wake of potential Ukraine ceasefire news as bonds fell; the 10-yr yield hit highs above 4.28%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

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          \n

          Macro<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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          Up\/Down<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

          		\n

          Last<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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          WTI Crude<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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          0.22<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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          66.25<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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          Brent<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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          0.28<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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          69.56<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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          Gold<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

          		\n

          21.50<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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          2,920.90<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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          EUR\/USD<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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          0.0099<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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          1.0931<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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          JPY\/USD<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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          0.44<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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          147.71<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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          10-Year Note<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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          0.065<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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          4.278%<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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          Sector News Breakdown<\/p>\n

          Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:<\/p>\n

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          • In Department Stores: KSS<\/span><\/b> shares tumbled on guidance as posted Q4 sales fell -9.4% y\/y to $51.8B, which was in-line with consensus but EPS of $0.43 missed the $0.72 estimate with a weaker operating income of $126M; also guided 2025 comparable sales to decline (-4%-6%) vs. ests. for (-0.9%) after Q4 comps fell (-6.7%); also guided 2025 adj EPS $0.10-$0.60, well below the consensus estimate of $1.23.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
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            • In Sporting Goods Retail: DKS<\/span><\/b> Q4 adj EPS $3.62 vs. est. $3.54 on better sales $3.89B vs. est. $3.78B and margins 35% (est. 34.6%); said its business looks strong for 2025 but its profit outlook of $13.80-$14.40 was below consensus est. $14.82; said it will increase its gross margins in 2025 and grow its comparable store sales. <\/li>\n
            • In Food & Beverages: AVO<\/span><\/b> shares slumped following results and commentary; UNFI<\/span><\/b> reported Q2 adj EPS of $0.22 on sales $8.15B, topping the $0.19\/$7.95B estimates on better Ebitda of $145M; boosted its FY25 EPS view to $0.70-$0.90 from $0.40-$0.80 prior and revs to $31.3B-$31.7B from $30.6B-$31B prior. Bloomberg reported Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has called on top executives from KHC<\/span>, GIS<\/span><\/b> and other food companies to remove artificial dyes before the end of his term<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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              Leisure, Gaming & Lodging:<\/p>\n

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              • In Cruise lines: the sector was weaker (NCLH<\/span>, CCL<\/span>, RCL<\/span><\/b>), along with theme parks (CMCSA<\/span>, DIS<\/span>, FUN<\/span><\/b>) and lodging names following general weaker guidance outlooks for several airlines (DAL<\/span>, AAL<\/span><\/b>), which raised concern about the consumer\/leisure trips; VIK<\/span><\/b> reported Q4 EPS $0.24 below consensus est. $0.37 while revs of $1.35B compared to est. $1.34B on slightly better adj EBITDA $305.9M.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
                  \n
                • In Leisure: ski resort company MTN<\/span><\/b> reported Q2 EPS $6.57 vs est. $6.31, op Inc $384.417Mm vs est. $373.1Mm on revs $1.137B, vs est. $1.13B; guides FY resort EBITDA $841-877Mm vs est. $871Mm. Truist noted following a string of in-season earnings misses, this was the second consecutive quarter where the company beat consensus expectations (though notes FY guide comes down due to FX headwinds). Lodging stocks MAR<\/span>, H<\/span>, HLT<\/span><\/b> another sector tumbling after major U.S. airlines flag slowing travel demand.<\/li>\n
                • In Pet Services: FRPT<\/span><\/b> was downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer and removing $140 tgt saying following disappointing guidance at CAGNY, more subdued commentary from management lately, and a slowdown to start the year, we believe investors should now await signs of top-line stabilization.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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                  Energy, Industrials and Materials<\/p>\n

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                  • In Utilities: NPWR<\/span><\/b> shares tumbled, extending recent losses as investors continued to sell the clean energy technology company after it announced higher than anticipated costs for its Project Permian project. TXNM<\/span><\/b> is exploring the sale of its operations after receiving interest from a potential suitor, Bloomberg News reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter. TXNM provides electricity to approximately 800,000 homes and businesses in New Mexico and Texas through its two regulated utilities.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
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                    • In Metals & Mining: industrial metals such as aluminum and steel producers (X<\/span>, NUE<\/span>, AA<\/span>, CENX<\/span>, STLD<\/span><\/b>) advanced early after President Donald Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum coming into the U.S. from Canada. A total of 50% tariff to go into effect on Wednesday morning.<\/li>\n
                    • In Industrials: ETN<\/span><\/b> said it will buy Fibrebond Corporation in a $1.4 billion deal as it looks to expand its reach into the data center market.<\/li>\n
                    • In Aerospace: RDW<\/span><\/b> shares fell after the space infrastructure company reported revenue for Q4 that trailed Wall Street\u2019s expectations; RKLB<\/span><\/b> schedules two launches three days apart, upcoming mission to deploy final satellites in Kin\u00e9is constellation; BA<\/span><\/b> delivered jets at a steady clip in February but shipped out fewer of its profitable 737 MAXs than in January; Boeing delivered 44 planes last month, including 32 737s. That was down from 40 737 deliveries the month before.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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                      Financials<\/p>\n

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                      • In Banks: FISI <\/span><\/b>announced that it has settled civil litigation in connection with the Bank’s auto loan notification process. The legal action had been pending in Pennsylvania state court since 2017 and related to language in repossession notices issued between 2011 and 2021 to defaulting borrowers. Piper made a handful of ratings changes; upgraded BKU<\/span><\/b> to Overweight from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $41, raised FBK<\/span><\/b> to Overweight ($58 tgt) and FCNCA to Overweight ($2,250 tgt) as views the recent share downside as "excessive" and believes current levels represent a "compelling" opportunity for investors. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
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                        • In Financial Services: RDDT<\/span><\/b> reiterated Buy and $210 tgt at Loop Capital saying understands that it is in a risk-off market environment, and that RDDT has been one of the top performing stocks over the past year, but it believes the 50% drop in the past month is excessive and says Reddit has the biggest upside potential relative to Street estimates under the firms coverage universe.<\/li>\n
                        • In Crypto: CoinDesk reported HOOD<\/span><\/b> crypto trading volume dropped 29% in February, outpacing declines in equities and options trading. Despite the monthly drop, the crypto volumes were 122% higher than in February 2023. The month-over-month drop to $14.4 billion outpaced declines in equities and options trading, which each fell 1%; Bitcoin popping to highs up over 4% this afternoon at $82,900; lifting crypto names MSTR<\/span>, COIN<\/span>, CORZ<\/span><\/b>.<\/li>\n
                        • Investment banking: HLI <\/span><\/b>was double upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at Wells Fargo as defensibility, with upside to the M&A recovery, is attractive during periods of uncertainty in the highly cyclical M&A industry.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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                          Biotech & Pharma:<\/p>\n

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                          • ARVN <\/span><\/b>shares fall after the company with PFE<\/span><\/b> said their experimental breast cancer treatment (vepdegestrant) helped significantly improve the time some patients lived without the disease worsening but failed to achieve statistically significant results in others. Arvinas says the drug failed to show statistically significant improvements in the intent-to-treat population during the late-stage trial.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
                              \n
                            • BIIB<\/span><\/b> announced the initiation of dosing in the global clinical study, TRANSCEND. The Phase 3 study will evaluate the efficacy and safety of the investigational drug felzartamab compared to placebo in adult kidney transplant recipients diagnosed with late antibody-mediated rejection (AMR). TRANSCEND is designed to enroll approximately 120 kidney transplant recipients with late AMR.<\/li>\n
                            • GH<\/span><\/b> shares outperformed after announced the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services CMS has approved Advanced Diagnostic Laboratory Test ADLT status for the Shield blood test for colorectal cancer CRC screening.<\/li>\n
                            • ILMN<\/span><\/b> lowered its annual 2025 EPS forecast to about $4.50 from prior $4.50-$4.65 and said it plans to cut $100 million in spending after China announced a ban on imports of its genetic sequencing instruments.<\/li>\n
                            • PTCT<\/span><\/b> upgraded from Underperform to Neutral at Bank America and raised to $55 from $41 given that the FDA has fast tracked potential approval for vatiquinone, the company’s drug to treat Friedrich ataxia; said is particularly positive given that a phase 3 study failed to demonstrate a stat sig benefit on a primary FA rating.<\/li>\n
                            • TSVT<\/span><\/b> announced a definitive merger agreement under which BMY<\/span><\/b> will acquire all of the outstanding shares at a price of $5.00 per share in an all-cash transaction for a total equity value of approximately $286M.<\/li>\n
                            • VKTX<\/span><\/b> announced that it has signed a broad, multi-year manufacturing agreement with CordenPharma, an industry-leading contract development and manufacturing organization.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
                              \n

                              Transports<\/p>\n

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                              • Several airlines out with monthly updates\/lowering guidance outlooks:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
                                  \n
                                • AAL<\/span><\/b> shares fell as cuts their outlook as forecasts Q1 adj loss\/shr (-$0.60-$0.80) worse than prior view for loss of (-$0.20-$0.40) while forecasts Q1 available seat miles flat to -2%; notes revenue environment weaker than expected amid softness in domestic leisure.<\/li>\n
                                • DAL<\/span><\/b> shares fell after hours as cuts Q1 EPS view to $0.30-$0.50 from prior $0.70-$1.00 guidance and below consensus $0.085; guides Q1 total revenue up 3%-4%; said premium, international and loyalty revenue growth trends are consistent with expectations.<\/li>\n
                                • JBLU <\/span><\/b>forecasts Q1 capacity down (-4% to 5%), vs. prior forecast of down (-2% to -5%); guides Q1 ASMS growth down 5% – 4% y\/y; said is experiencing demand choppiness due to mixed macroeconomic indicators, resulting in trough period rev performing below expectations in Q1.<\/li>\n
                                • LUV<\/span><\/b> cuts 1Q RASM to up 2%-4% from prior view up 5%-7%, primarily due to increased capacity and lower than expected salary, wages, and benefits, maintenance, and other expenses; sees 1Q fuel cost per gallon of $2.35-$2.45; sees 1Q ASMs down 2% and sees 1Q CASM-X up 6%; says accelerating $2.5B share buyback program; will charge to check bags for the first time, launch basic economy tickets.<\/li>\n
                                • UAL <\/span><\/b>CEO says near-term economic pressures will likely accelerate removal of unprofitable capacity; says the company has seen weakness in the demand market and now expects to be in the low range of their prior forecast range; CEO notes look like a tougher economic time ahead.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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                                  Internet, Media & Telecom<\/p>\n

                                    \n
                                  • In Media & Internet: SPOT<\/span><\/b> was upgraded from Sell to Neutral at Redburn and raised tgt to $545 from $230 saying while expects more to come from audiobooks and ‘super-premium’ tiering, it argues the share price already reflects an optimistic near-term outlook.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
                                      \n
                                    • In Telecom: VZ<\/span><\/b> shares fell as the CEO said the company has seen an elevated level of competition in Q1 and growth will be "probably soft" in an industry conference call; expects middle-single-digit growth y\/y with slow start in Q1; AMT <\/span><\/b>files for offering of senior notes due 2030, senior notes due 2035.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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                                      Hardware & Software movers:<\/p>\n

                                        \n
                                      • ORCL<\/span><\/b> reported Q3 results that missed analysts\u2019 expectations as EPS of $1.47 missed the $1.49 estimate and revs of $14.13B rose 6% y\/y vs. +9% y\/y last quarter which missed the $14.39B but said cloud infrastructure unit revs increased 49% from a year earlier to $2.7B due to demand for computing power that can support artificial intelligence projects; Q3 RPO of $130B rose 62% y\/y versus 50% last quarter; guided Q1 results below views.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
                                          \n
                                        • ASAN<\/span><\/b> shares tumbled as Asana’s Co-founder and CEO, Dustin Moskovitz, will be stepping back to the board and will hand over the CEO role to a successor; retirement creates new risk, particularly given his 53% ownership of the business; reported better-than-expected FQ425 results but a weak FY26 outlook; guided FY26 non-GAAP EPS of $0.19-$0.20 (consensus ($0.01)) on revenue of $782M-$790M (consensus $804M).<\/li>\n
                                        • MYPS<\/span><\/b> reported <\/b>Q4 revenue that met expectations, but AEBITDA fell short in Q4, reflecting weaker-than-expected cost efficiencies; FY 2025 guidance was below consensus, particularly on profitability, raising concerns about near-term margin expansion and cash generation said Benchmark.<\/li>\n
                                        • Unity Software (U)<\/b> was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform with $30 PT at Citizens saying believes the upcoming launch of Vector represents a significant catalyst that can drive share gains of the $100B+ mobile gaming advertising market. With Unity now expecting to be fully live with Vector by the end of Q225, Citizens believe the company is nearing an inflection point in its high-margin advertising business.<\/li>\n
                                        • In the Optical sector: CIEN<\/span><\/b> reported aQ1 EPS $0.64 above ests $0.41 and revs rose to $1.07B from $1.04B y\/y and above ests $1.05B; guides Q2 revs $1.05B-$1.13B vs. est. $1.07B and says sees FY25 revenue growth toward high end of 8%-11% view.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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                                          Semiconductors:<\/p>\n

                                            \n
                                          • In Semiconductors: Citigroup said following a recent pick-up in Feb DDR5 PC DRAM contract price, the firm is seeing multiple signals indicating foreseeable memory market bottoming (MU<\/span>, WDC<\/span>, STX<\/span>, SNDK<\/span><\/b>); said with the market now reflecting the upward industry trajectory, spring is on its way for 2Q25E. For AMD<\/span><\/b> Oracle said it signed a multi-billion-dollar contract to build a cluster based on 30k of AMD\u2019s latest MI355X GPUs; TER<\/span><\/b> shares slumped after saying at investor Day that FY26′ rev & EPS trending toward low end of prior model and forecasts Q2 revenue flat to down 10% vs Q1; SMCI <\/span><\/b>rises as Eviden, a unit of information technology firm Atos Group, collaborates with SMCI to distribute company’s AI SuperCluster with NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 products across Europe, India, Middle East and South America.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

                                            <\/p>\n