{"id":24624,"date":"2025-03-03T08:48:15","date_gmt":"2025-03-03T14:48:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/?p=24624"},"modified":"2025-03-03T08:48:15","modified_gmt":"2025-03-03T14:48:15","slug":"daily-commentary-march-03-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/daily-commentary-march-03-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Daily Commentary: March 03, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Bounce… But Not Too High<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
Posted by Pete Stolcers on March 03
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The market is going to bounce from a deeply oversold condition. From a bearish standpoint, we want this bounce to hit heavy resistance around SPY $600. <\/h4>\n

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – Last week the market breached the 100-day MA. After five days of heavy selling, it shed 5% of its value. That is a sign of “risk off” and we are seeing signs of economic weakness. Bull markets die hard and the first drop from the high typically has a good bounce. Buyers are still conditioned to buy dips and they will continue doing this until they are discouraged. <\/p>\n

According to a Bank of America fund managers survey, cash levels have not been this low since 2010. This tells us that there’s not much fire power left and that the bounce should be brief and wimpy. No question the market was oversold last Friday. The bounce late in the day was violent and the market closed back above the 100-day MA. This morning we are seeing follow through buying and overseas markets were up nicely. <\/p>\n

From a technical standpoint, I want to see resistance. The Academy Awards were last night so I’ll use an old reference. I want to see a rally get slapped down like Chris Rock at the Oscars. I want this bounce to be brief and shallow and I don’t want the SPY to get much above $600. If I see this rejection, it will tell me that there is profit taking. That will set up another leg lower. <\/p>\n

This is a very busy week. Trump’s tariffs will go into effect tomorrow. The official PMIs from Europe were slightly better than feared, but they are still in contraction territory. ISM Manufacturing will be released after the open today. Wednesday we will get ADP and ISM Services. Based on the flash PMI two weeks ago, I believe that ISM Services could be weak on Wednesday. If it is, that could be a catalyst for more selling. The Fed has been hawkish and as poor economic data is released, Asset Managers will worry that the Fed will not ease soon enough. The jobs report on Friday will also have a huge market impact.<\/p>\n

The technicals have been softening for the last few months and the fundamentals have been deteriorating. This is when I expect to see a move lower. <\/p>\n

If you have nice profits on longs this morning, I suggest taking them near the open. I will be watching for a wimpy rally from a deeply oversold condition. The candles should be mixed and overlapping. “Take your best shot!” I want to see this bounce move higher right away and then I want to see that smack down. If the market hits resistance I will consider taking some overnight short positions Tuesday. <\/p>\n

If the first move of the day is wimpy, day trade the fade. I feel like there are day trading opportunities on both sides.<\/p>\n

Support is at the 100-day MA and resistance is at AVWAPQ and the 50-day MA.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Content is provided by OneOption, LLC<\/a>, which has no affiliation with Regal Securities, Inc. (“Regal”) This commentary is provided for information purposes only, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation by Regal to buy or sell securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Regal has not participated in the creation of the OneOption content and does not directly or indirectly endorse the content. Any reliance on this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Bounce… But Not Too High Posted by Pete Stolcers on March 03 www.oneoption.com The market is going to bounce from a deeply oversold condition. From a bearish standpoint, we want this bounce to hit heavy resistance around SPY $600. PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – Last week the market breached the 100-day MA. After five days of heavy selling, it shed … Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":1318,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24624","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-1option-commentary"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24624","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24624"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24624\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24625,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24624\/revisions\/24625"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1318"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24624"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24624"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24624"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}