{"id":24559,"date":"2025-02-13T09:24:16","date_gmt":"2025-02-13T15:24:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/?p=24559"},"modified":"2025-02-13T09:24:16","modified_gmt":"2025-02-13T15:24:16","slug":"daily-commentary-february-13-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/daily-commentary-february-13-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Daily Commentary: February 13, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Inflation Will Weigh On the Market<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
Posted by Pete Stolcers on February 13
\n www.oneoption.com<\/a><\/div>\n
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The CPI and PPI came in “hotter” than expected.<\/h4>\n

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – Yesterday we learned that the CPI rose by .5% (.3% expected) and this morning we learned that PPI increased .4% (.3% expected). We also learned that PPI was revised upward to .5% in December (.2% was initially reported). The market has taken these “hot” readings in stride. <\/p>\n

This news is going to keep the Fed sidelined. Inflation is starting to rise and I view that as very bearish. When economic conditions falter the Fed will be hesitant to cut rates because one of their primary mandates is to fight inflation. I believe those soft domestic economic releases are coming in the next month or two. <\/p>\n

Why is the market treading water after such bearish news? I believe that it is a lack of selling pressure. Asset Managers don’t want to sell stocks because economic conditions in the US are still stable. Companies have pricing power so they will be able to offset some of the impact of higher costs. If bond yields are heading higher, Asset Managers don’t want to shift to fixed income at this time. If we look at the volume, we are not seeing strong buying either. The market is trapped in a range and I believe that will continue until we see signs of a recession. <\/p>\n

The potential upside catalysts are outnumbered by the potential downside risks. I am fairly bearish, but I can’t swing trade from the short side until I have technical confirmation. We don’t pick market tops. I am in cash on a swing basis and I don’t like being long. I don’t like selling bullish put spreads either because option premiums are low. That means you are not properly rewarded. I also feel that when the “hurt” comes, it will come quickly. <\/p>\n

This is a good market to day trade from either side. It is easier to find good longs than it is to find good shorts. This is simply a function of the market being near the all-time high. The market is going to open higher and I am looking for a wimpy move higher. That will play right into my desire to trade from the short side. When the move stalls, I will be looking for stocks with relative weakness and heavy volume. I feel that this news will eventually attract selling pressure today. <\/p>\n

Retail sales will be posted tomorrow and we will be able to gauge the health of the consumer. I believe the number will be weak based on the recent price action in retail stocks. This sector will be reporting in the next couple of weeks. <\/p>\n

Support is at the 50-day MA and resistance is at the all-time high.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Content is provided by OneOption, LLC<\/a>, which has no affiliation with Regal Securities, Inc. (“Regal”) This commentary is provided for information purposes only, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation by Regal to buy or sell securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Regal has not participated in the creation of the OneOption content and does not directly or indirectly endorse the content. Any reliance on this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Inflation Will Weigh On the Market Posted by Pete Stolcers on February 13 www.oneoption.com The CPI and PPI came in “hotter” than expected. PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – Yesterday we learned that the CPI rose by .5% (.3% expected) and this morning we learned that PPI increased .4% (.3% expected). We also learned that PPI was revised upward to .5% … Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":1318,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24559","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-1option-commentary"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24559","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24559"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24559\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24560,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24559\/revisions\/24560"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1318"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24559"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24559"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eoption.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24559"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}