Closing Recap

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

U.S. stock markets were mostly lower as strength in technology helped propel the Nasdaq to another all-time high, but other sectors were broadly lower, weighing on the Russell 2000 index and Dow Jones Industrials. The S&P 500 failed to close at another record higher after opening at a new best. If not for strength in the mega cap tech names (NVDA, AMD, MSFT, GOOGL, MSFT) major averages would have been down much more as NYSE breadth was more than 3:1 decliners leading advancers and ten of the eleven S&P sectors were down on the day, excluding the strong Technology (XLK) which rise 1%, with Materials, Energy, Financials, REITs, Healthcare, and Utilities all down over 1% on the day. Stock market futures rallied overnight following news of Nvidia’s planned resumption of sales of its H20 AI chips to China being part of the U.S. negotiations on rare earths, boosting semiconductor stocks. Nvidia traded to new all-time highs today following the bounce on China news. Also, inflation data was mixed as the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) was below economists’ forecasts but did rise from the prior month. That news lifted Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar. On the first day of earnings for large cap banks, the reaction was disappointing, with big declines in shares of STT, BLK and WFC, while Citi shares jumped. All in all, news flow was positive today with CPI and chip stock news, and little trade news, but stocks just took a small breather.

In trade/tariff news today: President Trump announced a trade deal with Indonesia with 19% tariff (and 0% for the U.S.), saying “Great deal, for everybody, just made with Indonesia. I dealt directly with their highly respected President” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. Indonesia’s total trade with the U.S. – totaling just under $40 billion in 2024 – does not rank in the top 15, but it has been growing. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested the deadline for a US-China tariff truce slated to end next month is flexible (US listed China stocks strong start on the day BABA, BIDU, PDD). Also, the European Union has finalized a second list of countermeasures to target US goods worth EU72 billion ($84 billion), including Boeing Co. aircraft, automobiles and bourbon.

• June CPI energy +0.9%, gasoline +1.0%, new vehicles -0.3%, food +0.3%, housing +0.3%, owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence +0.3%. June Consumer Prices ex food & energy (or core CPI) rose +0.2% vs. est. +0.3% and on a y/y basis rose +2.9% below the consensus of +3.0%.
• NY Fed’s empire state current business conditions index rose +5.5 in July better than the consensus for decline of -9.0 and vs -16.0 in June; big turn arounds for new orders index +2.0 in July vs -14.2 in June and employment index at +9.2 in July vs +4.7 in June, while six-month business conditions index +24.1 in July vs +21.2 in June; note the NY Fed’s empire state prices paid index +56.0 in July vs +46.8 in June.

• It was a strong day for the US dollar rising to near 4-month highs against the Japanese yen following economic data; rate cut expectations get pushed out. The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) rises +0.55% to highs at 98.60; greenback gains against Japanese yen to 148.8, highest since April 3rd while the euro falls below $1.16 against US dollar, lowest since late June.
• In Crypto: President Trump sad in Truth Social media post “The GENIUS Act is going to put our Great Nation lightyears ahead of China, Europe, and all others, who are trying endlessly to catch up, but they just can’t do it. Digital Assets are the FUTURE, and we are leading by a lot! After record highs above $123,000 yesterday, Bitcoin pulls back slightly below $117,000, extending losses this afternoon.
• August gold prices slipped -$22.40 or 0.67% to settle at $3,336.70 an ounce as market participants awaited tariff updates, while an inflation report showed a widely expected increase in U.S. consumer prices last month.
• Oil prices edged lower as WTI crude slumped -$0.46 or 0.69% to settle at $66.52 per barrel as prices slid after U.S. President Donald Trump’s 50-day deadline for Russia to end the Ukraine war and avoid sanctions eased concerns about any immediate supply disruption. Oil prices had climbed on the potential sanctions but later gave up gains as the 50-day deadline raised hopes that sanctions could be avoided.

• Chinese carmaker BYD (BYDDF) said it had launched a smartphone-car connectivity feature across its lineup, compatible with phone brands including Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo.
• Renault (RNLSY) said now aims to achieve FY 2025 operating margin around 6.5% vs over 7% previously announced; said June volumes slightly lower than expected; said a level of production at the end of 2024 higher than at the end of June 2025.
• TSLA opened orders for the Model Y in India, starting at $69,700 for the RWD and $79,000 for the LR RWD—nearly double US pricing due to steep tariffs. Deliveries begin this quarter. FSD add-on costs another $7K. TSLA later slipped on a WSJ report that its top sales executive in North America has left after 15 years.

• In Gaming/Casinos: DKNG, PENN shares slumped on reports the ends the Polymarket probe in a win for Crypto betting under Trump and signaling a more favorable regulatory stance toward prediction markets under the Trump administration.
• In Restaurants: RRGB announced its "First Choice" strategic plan aimed at driving long-term shareholder value while sees Q2 comp restaurant sales falling approximately 4%, below the previously communicated expectation of a 3% decline; but now expects Adjusted EBITDA to exceed the prior expectation range of $13M to $16M; Keybanc with preview for sector saying still likes MCD and CMG (raise tgt to $60 from $58), raise tgt on DIN to $30 from $26, and notes investors lack enthusiasm for SBUX, WEN and SG into results.
• In Food & Grocers: ACI raises FY identical sales growth view to 2%-2.75% from 1.5%-2.5% after Q1 ID sales rose 2.8%, while still sees FY capex spending $1.7B-$1.9B; CVCO announced it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire American Homestar Corporation and its subsidiaries for $190 million in cash. The transaction is subject to customary purchase price adjustments and regulatory approvals.
• In Mobility and Delivery: DASH was downgraded to Hold from Buy on valuation saying the firms profit decomposition supports upside to cons and peer-leading EBITDA growth, but likely not enough to justify continued outperformance without assigning optimistic multiples to DASH’s non-core businesses. Jefferies also thinks a recent ramp in affordability initiatives could limit upside to take rate. BIDU and UBER join forces to accelerate autonomous vehicle deployment; first deployments are expected in Asia and Middle East this year.

• In Utilities: NFG was double upgraded to Buy from Underperform at Bank America with $107 tgt saying since acquiring the Eastern Development Area from Shell in 2020, productivity has gotten increasingly better. The firm’s review of recent data shows production tracking 2.6 bcf per thousand feet, 16% ahead of expectations; OKLO was initiated at Overweight and $73 tgt at Cantor citing its potential to lead the next phase of the energy transition through advanced nuclear technology. OKLO has selected a contractor to build its first nuclear power plant, a sign the energy startup is gaining momentum in its efforts to deliver a new type of reactor – Bloomberg reported.
• In Refiners: Raymond James double upgraded DINO to Strong Buy from Market Perform, downgraded MPC to Outperform from Strong Buy and downgraded CVI to Underperform as valuation is full. With a very steep recovery (+80% on average) in refining stocks since the “Liberation Day” lows, RAJA is adjusting ratings to reflect its views on the new risk/reward outlook. While DINO has traded well lately, RAJA doesn’t think a fairly positive backdrop is reflected in valuation, and as such, are upgrading to Strong Buy.
• In Solar: JP Morgan said it is updating its US residential solar growth assumptions to reflect the expected impact from the One Big Beautiful Bill. The firm is downgrading SEDG to Neutral from Overweight, given the stock’s significant outperformance recently, though it believes that SEDG is relatively best positioned to gain share in the US inverter space as the resi market shifts to TPO; downgrades ENPH to Neutral from Overweight to reflect expected share loss and margin pressure as the industry gravitates towards third-party owned (TPO) systems and its preferred pick in the resi space is RUN.

• JPM Q2 adj EPS $4.96 tops the consensus $4.47 and revs fell -11% y/y to $44.9B vs. est. $43.98B; Q2 profit fell -17% y/y to $14.99B; Q2 FICC sales and trading $5.69B vs. est. $5.22B; Q2 equities sales & trading revs $3.25B vs. est. $3.2B CEO Dimon says significant risks persist for economic outlook including from high fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices; Q2 average low and up 5% and average deposits up 6%.; Q2 investment banking fees rose 7% to $2.5B; Q2 interest income, which represents its profits on lending, went up 2% to $23.3B, just below analyst expectations of $23.6B; Q2 Consumer spending on JPMorgan cards rose 7% and customers carried higher balances; Q2 Net charge-offs at the consumer bank were up 2% to $2.1 billion; Losses from the bank’s card division were roughly flat versus last year.
• Citigroup (C) Q2 EPS $1.96 topped est. $1.60 on better revs of $21.67B vs est. 21B; said Q2 operating expenses $13.6B; Q2 FICC sales & trading revs $4.27B vs. est. $3.92B; Q2 investment banking fees climbed 13% in Q2, while overall banking revenue increased nearly 19% to $1.9B; Q2 Markets revenue jumped 16% to $5.9B, its best performance since the second quarter of 2020; Q2 Equity capital markets fees climbed 25% in the quarter driven by strength in convertibles and IPOs, while advisory fees surged 52%; Q2 personal banking revenues climbed 6%, driven by higher interest-earning balances in credit cards.
• WFC Q2 EPS $1.60 vs. est. $1.41 and net income $5.494B vs. est. $4.59B; Q2 revs $20.82B vs. est. $20.76B; Q2 provision for credit loss $1.0B; Q2 net interest income $11.71B vs. est. $11.83B; Q2 Investment banking fees rose 9% to $696M driven by higher advisory fees; Q2 provision for credit losses fell to $1.01B from $1.24B y/y; said lower interest income in its markets business led to the NII forecast cut as for 2025, said it expects its interest income to be roughly in line with the 2024 level of $47.7B (in April, it said NII growth would be at the low end of the 1% to 3% range); Wells Fargo CFO notes tariffs are causing clients to be cautious about borrowing and investments.
• In Trust Banks:
• BK Q2 EPS $1.94 vs. est. $1.76; Q2 total revs $5.03B vs. est. $4.83B; Q2 net interest income $1.2B vs. est. $1.15B; Q2 total fee revenue rose 7% to $3.64 billion, compared with the year-ago quarter; assets under custody and administration rose 13% in the quarter ended June 30 to $55.8 trillion from a year earlier; sees 2025 net interest income up high-single-digits % y/y.
• STT shares tumble; Q2 EPS $2.17 missed the est. $2.34 on revs $3.448B vs. est. $3.353B; Q2 Net Income $693M compared vs. est. $674.3M; Q2 assets under custody and administration rose 10.6% to $49 trillion in the three months ended June 30 from a year earlier; reported a Q2 profit of $630M, down from $655M y/y; expenses rose 11.5% to $2.53B in Q2

• In Asset Managers: BLK Q2 adj EPS $12.05 tops consensus $10.60 on revs $5.42B vs. est. $5.41B; assets under management rose to $12.53 trillion in the quarter ending June 30, from $10.65 trillion last year. However, long-term net inflows fell to $46 billion in the quarter, down 9.8%.
• In Credit Cards: BAC credit card delinquency rate was 1.38% at June end and Bank of America Corp credit card charge-off rate was 2.33% in June; AXP preliminary U.S. small business card member loans 30 days past due loans as a% of total 1.6 % at June end and prelim U.S. small business card member loans net write-off rate – principal only 2.6 % at June end. Citigroup Inc said credit card charge-offs 2.12 % in June while the credit card delinquency rate 1.38% at June end.
• In Brokers & Exchanges: Morgan Stanley previews the sector saying despite more normalized volatility in the back half of Q2, sees scope for inflation, interest rates, and tariffs negotiations to support rates/credit volumes. Within exchanges, the firm is more selective here and prefers names with secular and cyclical tailwinds that’s underappreciated, reiterate OWs CME and MKTXWithin brokers, downgrades AMP to Underweight with valuation in-line with peers on 2027 despite slower growth; also raised the price tgt on HOOD by +156% to $110.

• In Medical Equipment & Supplies: Morgan Stanley upgraded both STE and SOLV to Overweight and downgraded RXST to Equal Weight, shuffling the decks heading into Q2 results. STE upgraded citing its new work on the potential margin gains from the shift to E-Beam, consolidation of volumes and pricing power on NESHAP compliance costs, improving bioprocessing trends, and potential tailwind from Olympus’ import ban into the US; SOLV upgraded after running the numbers for its divestment of P&F to TMO ($3.3B post-tax inflow), along with MSCO’s increased confidence in hitting the mid-point of the 2028 guide and downgraded RXST following the dramatic slowdown in LDD placements for RXST in Q2.
• In Wound Care: shares of ORGO and MDXG shares tumble after the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) proposed a rule in the CY 2026 Medicare Physician Fee Schedule that would reclassify skin substitutes as "incident-to supplies" instead of biologicals, aiming to cut Medicare spending on these products by nearly 90%. his change would eliminate product-specific reimbursement for skin substitutes, significantly impacting companies like Organogenesis and MiMedx, which specialize in these products. Medicare spending on skin substitutes has surged from $256 million in 2019 to over $10 billion in 2024, prompting CMS to address "abusive pricing practices" and products with limited clinical value
• In Healthcare Services/Insurance: OSCR was downgraded for a second day, this time by UBS to Sell from Neutral and cut PT to $11 from $15 saying recent developments in the Public Health Insurance Exchanges drive them to be more conservative in UBS’s assessment of the Exchanges. UBS now expects OSCR’s Exchange enrollment to decline at least 30% (prior 18%) in 2026E. SLP shares fell after the drug development software company lowered some of its fiscal year forecasts while posting 3Q results.
• In Dental sector: HSIC says CEO Stanley Bergman will retire at the end of the year, after 45 years at the company; adds, he will continue to serve as Chairman of the board; says it is commencing a formal search process for a new CEO and will consider internal and external candidates.

• In Industrials: CARR was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan with an unchanged price target of $79 saying they sees a mixed outlook for the company in the near-term amid inflation headwinds in the system as Carrier faces pressure from rising competition and higher inventory in the channel. OTIS was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan (tgt to $109 from $101) noting shares have underperformed the sector over the past three months but has a stable near-term outlook. Homebuilder stocks (KBH, PHM, TOL, LEN) were weak following a jump in Treasury yields/mortgage rates.
• In Materials, Metals & Mining: Morgan Stanley downgraded FCX, TECK to Equal Weight from Overweight and both SCCO, NEXA to Underweight as views the risk/rewards on copper equities as less compelling following the outperformance since April 8 and cites macro and growth concerns, as well valuation, for the downgrade of several names in the space. In Materials: MP shares jumped after announces a $500M partnership with AAPL to produce recycled rare earth magnets in the United States; Apple and MP will launch an all-new recycling facility for processing recycled rare earth elements (other rare earth mineral names saw strength today as well such as CRML).
• In Aerospace & Defense: The US Commerce Department launched investigations into imports of drones, parts for unmanned aerial vehicles and for polysilicon, a key material for solar power, setting the stage for possible tariffs on those goods; JOBY said it will double production at California manufacturing facility and also expanded its flight test program with addition of a new aircraft to its fleet; PLTR new 52-week highs; SPIR said it was awarded $1.2M NASA contract renewal for earth observation data

• In the Telecom Equipment: ERIC Q2 sales came in at 56.13B Swedish crowns ($5.84 billion), 5% below consensus estimates; forecasts Q3 networks segment sales growth to be below 3-year average seasonality, and its adjusted gross margin between 48-50%; warns of the impact from potential further tariff changes.

• In Smartphones: China’s smartphone shipments dropped by 4.0% Y/Y in the second quarter, the International Data Corporation (IDC) said on Tuesday. Apple’s (AAPL) market share in China was at 13.9%, while Huawei’s was at 18.1% in Q2, according to IDC

• CEG said it plans to spend billions of dollars on nuclear energy projects to fuel economic growth in Pennsylvania; said Pennsylvania project will also create 3,400 jobs.
• CRWV announces multi-billion-dollar commitment to AI infrastructure in Pennsylvania; plans to commit more than $6B to equip new, state-of-the-art data center in Lancaster, PA.
• ETN said it accelerates the transformation of data center infrastructure in the AI era with NVDA as its power management portfolio and expertise help meet the rapidly expanding infrastructure demands of next-generation data centers.
• GOOGL will spend $25 billion on data centers and artificial intelligence infrastructure in the PJM electric grid region over the next two years. PJM is the biggest electric grid in the nation, covering 13 states across the mid-Atlantic and parts of the Midwest and South. Google also signed a framework agreement to purchase hydroelectric power from Brookfield Asset Management.
• GOOGL has agreed to secure as much as 3 gigawatts of U.S. hydropower in the world’s largest corporate clean power pact for hydroelectricity. The deal between Google and Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) includes initial 20-year power purchase agreements, totaling $3 billion, for electricity generated from two hydropower facilities in Pennsylvania.
• ORCL will invest $3 billion over the next five years in artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure in Germany and the Netherlands to meet upbeat demand, the company said. The cloud service provider plans to allocate $2 billion to Germany and $1 billion to the Netherlands.
• Westinghouse Electric Company (owned by CCJ, BEPC) and Google Cloud today announced they are collaborating to use artificial intelligence (AI) tools to transform the construction of advanced Westinghouse nuclear reactors into an efficient, repeatable process and enhance the operations of existing nuclear power plants using data-driven insights.