Early Look

Wednesday, July 23, 2025

U.S. futures advance overnight, rallying on news of another trade deal as the U.S and Japan come to terms with 15% reciprocal tariffs (down from a proposed 25% for Japan) on the country’s exports to the US. Trump also said that Japan will open their country to trade including cars and trucks, rice and certain other agricultural products, among other things, which included a pledge by Japan to invest $550 billion in the United States. The news lifts futures just a day after another record setting performance for the S&P 500 Index (its 11^th closing higher this year) while the Nasdaq pulled back slightly from its all-time best close Monday as investors continue to pour money into the stock market. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged 1,396 points or 3.5% to 41,171 following the trade deal announced with the U.S overnight, the Shanghai Index was flat at 3,582, and the Hang Seng Index advanced 408 points to 25,538. In Europe, the German DAX is rising 178 points to 24,220, while the FTSE 100 is up 53 points to 9,076. In other trade news, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he will meet his Chinese counterparts in Stockholm next week for their third round of trade talks. Nasdaq futures are lagging the S&P, dragged down by semis after Texas Instruments (TXN) shares fall -11% after guidance. Yesterday, a steady bid for value and small caps lifted the Dow and Russell 2000, indicating a rotation in leadership, but attention turns back to earnings this morning and large cap tonight as two of the Mag 7 stocks are reporting after the close: Tesla (TSLA) results due as well as Alphabet (GOOGL), whose shares are up ten straight days into earnings tonight. Also, meme stock frenzy is spreading with shares of OPEN, KSS, rising early in week, and DNUT, GPRO among others rising this morning.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 179.37 points, or 0.40%, to 44,502.44
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -81.49 points, or 0.39%, to 20,892.69
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 17.62 points, or 0.79% to 2,248.76

• 10;00 AM ET                Existing Home Sales M/M for June…est. 4.0M
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET U.S. Treasury to sell $13B in 20-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: ALK AMTB ASGN BANC BDN BRKL BWB CADE CBAN CCI CHDN CLB CMG CSX CVLG CYH EGBN EGP EPRT ESRT FAF GGG GL GLPG GOOGL GSHD GTY HLX IBM ICLR INBK KALU KNX LOB LVS MAT MOH MTAL MTH MXL NLY NOW NTST NVEC OBK OII ORLY PKG PLXS QCRH QS RBBN RELL RHI RJF RNR ROL RS SEI SEIC SIGI SON SSNC TMUS TSLA URI VKTX WCN WEX WFG WH

• Hasbro (HAS) raised its annual revenue forecast as expects annual revenue to be up mid-single digits in constant currency terms, compared with prior predictions to be up slightly and sees FY ADJ ebitda $1.17B to $1.20B vs prior forecast $1.1B to $1.15B; said it saw strong demand for its “Wizards of the Coast” and digital gaming segments for a second straight quarter.
• Hilton (HLT) Q2 adj EPS $2.20 vs. est. $2.04; Q2 adj EBITDA $1.01B vs. est. $962.9M; sees FY net income $1.64B-$1.68B, down from prior $1.71B-$1.75B; guides Q3 adj EPS $1.98-$2.04 vs. est. $2.12 and sees FY adj EPS $7.83-$8.00, vs. prior $7.76-$7.94.
• Japanese auto stocks soar on report of lower tariffs as Toyota (TM), Honda (HMC), Nissan (NSANY) among autos moving higher on trade deal with the U.S. The two sides also agreed to cut tariff 25% tariffs already imposed on Japanese autos to 15%. Auto exports account for more than 25% of Japan’s exports to the U.S.
• Renault (RNLSY) will add more SUVs to small cars in its model lineup in India, as the French carmaker looks to boost utilization levels at its factory and rebuild its share in the world’s third-largest car market, a senior executive said.
• Tyson Foods (TSN) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein.

• ConocoPhillips (COP) is in advanced talks to sell some of its Oklahoma assets to flywheel energy for around $1.3B, as reported by Bloomberg last night.
• Enphase Energy (ENPH) Q2 EPS $0.69 vs. est. $0.62; Q2 revs $363.15M vs. est. $359.75M; sees Q3 revenue $330M-$370M vs. consensus $368.35M, sees Q3 gross margin 43%-46% and sees Q3 operating expenses $78M-$82M; GAAP gross margin of 46.9%; non-GAAP gross margin of 48.6% with net IRA benefit.
• EQT Corp. (EQT) Q2 adj EPS $0.45 vs est. $0.41 on revs $2.56B vs est. $1.78B, FCF $340Mm; guides Q3 total sales volume 590-640 Bcfe and FY 2,300-2,400 Bcfe; sees Q3 total liquids sales volume 5,600-6,050 Bcfe and FY 22,300-23,500 Bcfe.
• Matador Resources (MTDR) Q2 adj EPS $1.53 vs. est. $1.41; Q2 adj net income $190.9M vs. est. $185.1M; Q2 adjusted free cash flow $132.7M; says increasing FY guidance range for total daily production from 198,000-202,000 BOE/D to 200,000-205,000 BOE/D; had 2Q production of 209,013 barrels of oil and natural gas equivalent per day.
• Range Resources (RRC) Q2 adj EPS $0.66 vs est. $0.63 on revs $856Mm vs est. $713.52Mm, op cash flow $336Mm, CAPEX $154Mm; guides FY capital budget $650-680Mm, annual production approx 2.225 Bcfe/day, liquids over 30% of production.
• Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) reported its results from the PJM Base Residual Auction for the 2026/2027 planning year. Talen cleared a total of 6,702 megawatts at a clearing price of $329.17 per megawatt-day across the MAAC, PPL and PSEG Locational Deliverability Areas, equating to approximately $805 million in capacity revenues for the 2026/2027 planning year.
• Weatherford Int’l (WFRD) Q2 revs rose 1% y/y to $1.2B vs. est. $1.169B; Q2 adj Ebitda $254M vs. est. 4249.1M; said looking ahead, activity levels in both North America & international markets show signs of sluggishness; said anticipate a relatively flat trajectory on revenues for immediate future.
• In Utilities: PJM Interconnection today announced the results of its 2026/2027 Base Residual Auction (BRA), which secured 134,311 MW of unforced capacity generation (UCAP) and demand response to meet projected electricity needs for more than 67 million people across 13 states and the District of Columbia.

• Chubb inc. (CB) Q2 adj EPS $6.14 vs est. $5.97, consolidated net premiums written $14.2B, up 6.3%, or 7.1% in constant dollars, with P&C and life insurance up 5.8% and 17.3%, respectively and vs est. $12.819B, P&C combined ratio 85.6%.
• CoStar Group (CSGP) Q2 adj EPS $0.17 vs est. $0.14, adj EBITDA $85Mm vs est. $59.21Mm on revs $781.3Mm vs est. $772.15Mm; guides Q3 revs $800-805Mm vs est. $803.07Mm, adj Ebitda $75-85Mm vs est. $109.86Mm; and adj EPS $0.15-0.17 vs est. $0.22; sees FY revs $3.135-3.155B vs est. $3.136B, adj EBITDA $370-390Mm vs est. $382.14Mm and adj EPS $0.76-0.80 vs est. $0.80.
• East West Bancorp (EWBC) Q2 EPS $2.24 vs. est. $2.25 and revs in-line at $703M; said average loans and deposits growing by approximately $1.0 billion each; posted 16.7% adjusted return on average tangible common equity.
• PennyMac Financial (PFSI) Q2 EPS $2.54 vs est. $2.86 on revs $444.7Mm vs est. $553.79Mm; adj pre-tax $143.7Mm vs est. $202.4Mm; BV/shr $78.04.
• Renasant Corp. (RNST) Q2 adj EPS $0.69 vs est. $0.63 on NII $218.859Mm vs est. $211.611Mm; provision for credit losses $81.3Mm.

• Carlsmed (CARL) 6.7M share IPO priced at $15.00.
• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q2 adj EPS $2.19 vs. est. $1.92; Q2 revs rose 21% y/y to $2.44B vs. est. $2.349B; Q2 adj Net Income $798M vs. est. $696M; worldwide Da Vinci procedures grew 17% in Q2; grew its da Vinci surgical system installed base to 10,488 systems as of June 30, 2025, an increase of 14% y/y; sees FY25 procedure growth 15.5%-17% and sees FY25 gross profit margin 66%-67% of revenue.
• Qiagen (QGEN) announced the launch of its new QIAseq xHYB Long Read Panels, a suite of target enrichment solutions designed to unlock long-read sequencing of genomically complex regions.
• Roche (RHHBY) announced it has received CE Mark for its Elecsys pTau181 test to measure phosphorylated Tau 181 protein which is an indicator of amyloid pathology, a hallmark of Alzheimer’s disease.
• Thermo Fisher (TMO) Q2 adjusted EPS $5.36 vs. est. $5.23; Q2 revs $10.85B vs. est. $10.68B.

• Enersys (ENS) announces workforce reduction as part of strategic organizational realignment to support future growth; estimated savings exclude one-time charges related to restructuring, anticipated in range of $15M to $20M.
• GE Vernova (GEV) Q2 $1.86 vs. est. $1.51; Q2 revs $9.1B vs. est. $8.8B; sees Fy rev outlook to trend towards higher end of $36-$37B vs. est. $36.98B; says outlook includes impact of tariffs est. to be trending toward lower end of about $300-$400M.
• Otis Worldwide (OTIS) shares slide as Q2 adj EPS $1.05 vs. est. $1.03 but sales miss at $3.6B vs. est. $3.706B; guides FY revs $14.5B-$14.6B, down from prior $14.6B-414.8B and backs FY EPS of $4.00-$4.10; sees outlook FY organic growth 1%.

• SAP Inc. (SAP) Q2 adj EBIT EUR2.58B vs. est. EU2.42B; Q2 EBIT margin 27.2%, adjusted EBIT margin 28.5%; Q2 Cloud Rev EU5.13B vs. est. EU5.17B; FY Non-IFRS Cloud Rev Guidance EU21.6B-EU21.9B; FY Non-IFRS Oper Profit Guidance EU10.3B-10.6B.
• Texas Instruments (TXN) shares fall; Q2 EPS $1.41 vs est. $1.35 on revs $4.448B vs est. $4.357B; guides Q3 revs $4.45-4.8B vs est. $4.588B and EPS $1.36-1.60 vs est. $1.50.
• Infosys (INFY) narrowed its forecast for the current fiscal year to 1%-3% from the flat-to-up-3% range announced in the previous quarter, after posting bigger-than-expected Q1 revenue (422.79B rupees vs. est. 418.06B rupees) on a boost from Europe market.
• Manhattan Associates (MANH) Q2 adj EPS $1.31 vs est. $1.13 on revs $272.4Mm vs est. $263.7Mm; guides FY revs $1.071-1.075B vs est. $1.063B, adj op mgn 34.8-35.3% and adj EPS $4.76-4.84 vs est. $4.60.
• Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) Q2 adj EPS $0.28 vs est. $0.23 on revs $384.512Mm vs est. $362.52Mm.
• Roblox (RBLX) downgraded to Outperform at Raymond James amid high bar for Q2.
• Vicor Corp. (VICR) shares soar on results; Q2 EPS $0.91 vs est. $0.14 on revs $141Mm vs est. $96.43Mm, gr mgn 65.3%; said Q2 revenue includes $45M patent litigation settlement.
• Charter (CHTR) and Comcast (CMCSA) announced they have entered into a multi-year exclusive agreement with T-Mobile (TMUS) to utilize its network to deliver mobile services to their business customers across the United States.
• Amazon (AMZN) is closing its Shanghai AI lab, becoming the most recent U.S. company to pullback from Chinese research efforts, the Financial Times reported.