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Waiting Game
www.oneoption.com
The headlines are light this week and the market is waiting for Jackson Hole.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – Yesterday the market compressed in a tight intraday range and it was one of the most lackluster sessions of the year. Global markets were flat with mixed marginal moves and the S&P 500 is unchanged overnight.
I don’t have anything new to add. The FOMC Minutes will be released tomorrow and Powell will speak at the conference on Friday 30 minutes after the open. The market is expecting comments consistent with a rate cut in September and anything contrary to that will not be well received.
As short term traders, we want volatility. A pullback would give us some nice price action on both sides and sustained directional moves. Without a dip we will be faced with these same conditions. Tight intraday ranges on light volume that check the bid and then gradually chop higher are not ideal.
Strong stocks that have recently pulled back to the EMA 8 are your best bet. Wait for them to show relative strength and buy. The dip will provide decent upside for the stock and the price action will be consistent. Ideally, the stock is on a gradual ascent. That gives you time to enter and there is confirmation along the way.
Stocks that are surging to new relative highs often run out of gas after the first hour and then they pullback to VWAP. The rest of the day they linger around that level. Be very careful joining big rallies and steep moves on the open. Those moves are not sustainable.
Keep it light and stay out of trouble. I would keep swing trades to a minimum. This market could go either way Friday.
Support is at $642 and resistance is at $646.
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