Early Look

Wednesday, August 20, 2025

After posting one of the weakest trading days since August 1^st, U.S. futures are looking at a modest decline overnight, though Nasdaq futures underperform behind another slow start for tech stocks. Investors received mixed earnings this morning as shares of Target (TGT) slide on results/guidance, while Lowe’s (LOW) advances on its results. Investors also await Federal Reserve minutes later today for clues to prospects for the economy and interest rates, ahead of this week’s annual FOMC conference in Jackson Hole, WY, highlighted by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell who will deliver remarks on Friday. The release of minutes from the Fed’s July’s meeting on Wednesday will serve as a curtain-raiser to Powell’s speech. Policymakers held interest rates steady at that meeting and stressed no decisions had been made about September, despite Trump suggesting otherwise. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -657 points to 42,888, the Shanghai Index rose 38 points to 3,766, and the Hang Seng Index edged higher 43 points to 25,165. In Europe, the German DAX is down -64 points to 24,358, while the FTSE 100 gains 19 points to 9,208.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged higher 10.45 points, or 0.02%, to 44,922.27
• The Nasdaq Composite tumbled -314.82 points, or 1.46%, to 21,314.95
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -17.86 points, or 0.78% to 2,276.61

• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $13B in 20-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: BBAR COTY FINV JBSS NDSN UFI

• UK inflation hit its highest in 18 months in July when it increased to 3.8% from 3.6%, official data showed on. Inflation in Britain’s services sector accelerated to 5.0% from 4.7% a month earlier. The BoE expected headline inflation to rise to 3.8% in July but had forecasted a smaller 4.9% rise in services prices.
• Japan July Trade Balance shows Imports: -7.2% y/y vs -10.4% consensus; Exports: -2.6% y/y vs -2.1% consensus; Japan June Machinery Orders: 3% m/m vs -1% consensus; 7.6% y/y vs 5% consensus.
• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand The New Zealand cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to a three-year low of 3.00% on Wednesday and flagged further reductions in coming months as policymakers warned of domestic and global headwinds to growth. The central bank’s dovish tone caught markets off guard and sent the New Zealand dollar tumbling 1.2% to a 4-month low at $0.5817.
• The Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) kept its 1-year loan prime rate at 3.0% and its 5-year LPR at 3.5% as fully expected. Separately, another sizable net injection of CNY497.5bn brought the two-day liquidity blitz to almost 1 trillion and reduced the month-to-date withdrawal to a more palatable of little below 500B.
• The API reported US crude inventories decreased 2.4 million bbls last week, according to people familiar with the matter.

• Avis Budget (CAR) was double downgraded to Underperform from Buy at Bank America with $113 tgt saying the stock significantly outperformed the market in June, but fundamentals and the macro environment don’t support the current stock price.
• Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) was downgraded at JPMorgan to underweight from neutral on expectations that vocational truck sales will soften over the coming quarters due to weak orders data.
• Estee Lauder (EL) shares fall after Q4 adj EPS $0.09 and revs $3.41B were both in-line with ests; guides FY26 adjusted EPS $1.90-$2.10 below consensus $2.22 and sees FY26 GAAP net sales growth 2%-5%; sees adjusted sales growth 0%-3%; sees tariff headwinds impacting FY26 profit by ~$100M.
• La-Z-Boy (LZB) Q1 adj EPS $0.47 vs est. $0.55 on revs $492Mm vs est. $494Mm, adj op mgn 4.8%; guides Q2 revs $510-530Mm vs est. $531.67Mm and adj op mgn 3.4-6%.
• Lowe’s (LOW) Q2 adj EPS $4.33 tops consensus $4.24; Q2 revs $23.96B, in-line with consensus $23.96B; Q1 comparable sales rose +1.1% (in-line with ests); raised its full-year revenue forecast to $84.5B-$85,5B from prior $83.5B-$84.5B and boosted EPS view to $12.10-$12.35, from $12.15-$12.40 previously. Also announced it has entered into an agreement to acquire Foundation Building Materials for about $8.8B.
• Toll Brothers (TOL) Q3 EPS $3.73 vs. est. $3.60 on revs $2.95B; Backlog value was $6.38B, down 10% y/y and homes in backlog were 5,492, down 19%; Q3 home sales gross margin was 25.6% vs. 27.4% y/y; Q3 Net signed contract value was $2.41 billion, flat y/y; sees Q4 deliveries 3,350 units.
• Vita Coco (COCO) upgraded to Overweight from neutral at Piper with an unchanged price target of $39 citing valuation for the upgrade following the recent selloff.

• James Hardie (JHX) shares sank -27% overnight after its quarterly profit sank and it warned demand for repairs and new construction in North America remains challenging; Q1 EPS $0.29 was in-line with consensus and revs $899.9M missed the $958.5M estimate; said Q2 sales in its North American fiber cement business decreased 12% and adj profit fell -29% y/y to $126.9M.
• Matthews (MATW) announced that Steven Nicola, CFO and treasurer, has advised the company’s board of directors of his plans to retire effective December 31
• SQM Inc. (SQM) reported a 59% decline in Q2 profit due to lower lithium prices; Q2 net profit of $88.4M missed analysts’ estimates of $143.01M; Q2 revs of $1.04B were in-line with consensus; said lithium prices were down about 34% year-on-year.

• Jack Henry Associates (JKHY) Q4 EPS $1.75 vs. est. $1.50; Q4 revs $615.37M vs. est. $605.31M; sees FY EPS $6.32-$6.44 vs. est. $6.29 and sees revs $2.475B-$2.504B vs. est. $2.52B.
• Nubank (NU) was double upgraded to Buy from Sell at Citigroup saying the bank is now able to accelerate in key portfolios while maintaining good asset quality.

• Celldex (CLDX) shares fell on data; Reports results from phase 2 study of Barzolvolimab in eosinophilic esophagitis; profound mast cell depletion did not result in improved clinical outcomes providing direct evidence that mast cells are not a primary driver in EoE.
• Edwards Lifesciences (EW) announces $500M accelerated share repurchase.
• Madrigal (MDGL) receives European Commission approval for Rezdiffra for the treatment of MASH with moderate to advanced liver fibrosis; planning for its first European launch in Germany in Q4 of 2025.

• CoreWeave Inc. (CRWV) major shareholder Magnetar Financial LLC sold 915,382 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction on Friday, August 15th. The shares were sold at an average price of $100.15, for a total transaction of $91,675,507.30. Following the completion of the transaction, the insider owned 397,757 shares in the company.
• Fluent Inc (FLNT) Q2 revenue falls 24% to $44.7M, missing analyst’s expectations while Commerce Media Solutions revenue grows 121% y/y, contributing 36% to total revenue; Q2 adjusted EPS beats estimates; said to sell 5.871M shares at $1.75 in private placement.
• Keysight Technologies (KEYS) Q3 adj EPS $1.72 vs est. $1.67 on revs $1.352B vs est. $1.318B; guides Q4 revs $1.37-1.39B vs est. $1.37B and adj EPS $1.79-1.85 vs est. $1.81.
• Snowflake (SNOW) upgraded to Buy from Neutral and Bank America and raise tgt to $240 from $220.
• In addition to municipal bonds issued by local governments, school boards, airport authorities and gas districts, President Trump bought corporate debt in tranches of at least $500,000 each from Qualcomm (QCOM) Inc., Home Depot (HD) and T-Mobile US (TMUS) Inc. on Feb. 10. He also purchased at least $250,000 of debt from Facebook owner Meta Inc. (META) later that month. https://tinyurl.com/4vayyw48