Daily Commentary: July 08, 2025

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Tariff Deadline Looming

Posted by Pete Stolcers on July 08
www.oneoption.com

If trade negotiations are not progressing the original rates will be enforced on August 1st.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – The news this week is very light. Yesterday the market gave back the gains from Thursday and that tells me that the Big Beautiful Bill was already priced into the market. The jobs report was better than feared, but it was not particularly strong. Private sector job growth is slowing.

Earnings season starts next week and analyst estimates have been greatly reduced during the last few months. Initially, profits for the S&P 500 were expected to grow over 9% and that has been halved. This is one of the largest estimate drops we’ve seen during a quarter in the last decade. Valuations are high and if earnings growth slows, the market will pullback. Be careful not to assume that a “beat” is going to move the stock higher.

Trump is sending out letters to nations to inform countries of the pending tariff increases. Japan and South Korea will pay 25% tariffs. Rumor has it that Europe will be spared and that a trade deal with India is close. We haven’t heard anything in the way of trade deals with our two largest partners (Canada and Mexico).

The tariffs are certain, but the impact is not. We don’t know how they will impact inflation or profits. If companies pass the tariffs on to consumers, prices will go up and demand could decrease. If companies absorb some of the tariffs profit margins will suffer. Companies have been front running the tariffs and the actual impact might not be felt for a few months.

I like selling out of the money put premium (naked or spreads) to distance myself from the action and to take advantage of time decay. I don’t like going out more than two weeks and I want to stay flexible. Towards the end of the month mega cap tech companies will report earnings and the Fed will signal their willingness (or reluctance) to cut rates in September. I suspect that we will see selling pressure in August, but I am not going to guess. I will wait for technical confirmation and I will be ready to short if the market breaks down. I also like day trading and if I can find a few nice trades each day, that’s all I need while I wait for this to play out.

Overseas markets were relatively flat and the futures are only up 10 points. There’s no news to drive the market so it might take a while for the market to find its footing. The ideal set up is a pullback early in the day that finds support. That allows us to identify stocks with relative strength and when the market rallies off of support we will have a small tailwind to fuel the stocks higher. Don’t look for big sustained moves. If you have nice gains, take them.

Yesterday’s range is support and resistance.

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