Daily Commentary: July 09, 2025

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Tariff Deadline Starts Today

Posted by Pete Stolcers on July 09
www.oneoption.com

If trade deals are not progressing the original tariffs outline in April will take effect on August 1st.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – This is a very light news week and yesterday the market was trapped in one of the narrowest ranges of the year. Europe posted nice gains, Asia was down slightly and the S&P 500 is up 15 points before the open. This is likely to be another dull trading session.

Trump is sending out letters to nations letting them know the tariffs that will be imposed on August 1st. Trade deals with Mexico, Canada, Europe and India are in limbo. We don’t know what if any agreements will be reached. If we don’t hear anything this week we should assume that there is progress. Trump has “lowered the boom” on countries that have been dragging their feet (Japan and South Korea).

The Big Beautiful Bill was passed. That had the potential to be an upside catalyst and the news was already priced in. The market has retreated slightly since it was signed. From a trading standpoint this gives us some clarity. We don’t have to wait and wonder what the market reaction might be.

In the next month Trump’s policies will have been enacted and we won’t see the market whipsaws from the first half of the year. Traders will wait for the economic and earnings releases. We’ll also see if the Fed softens its tone. In short, normal trading will resume. These policies will take a few months to cycle through the economy.

Earnings season kicks off next week. Analysts have lowered their expectations by the widest margin in a decade and we’ll see if they are right. Corporate guidance could be very murky and that will make investors nervous.

I like very sparingly selling OTM puts (naked or spreads) that expire in two weeks or less. I’m very comfortable day trading and grinding out gains while all of this plays out. You only need to find a few good trades each day and that is what I am focused on. Expect a dull session and wait for your windows to set up.

Support is at $620 and resistance is the all-time high.

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