Closing Recap

Monday, September 08, 2025

The Nasdaq climbed to a record high on Monday, lifted by a rally in semiconductors (SOX, AVGO, NVDA) and large cap tech (AMZN, MSFT) while the S&P 500 rose marginally as investors bet the Federal Reserve will soon lower borrowing costs to shore up economic growth. Traders have fully priced in at least a 25-basis points interest rate cut when the Fed wraps up its two-day policy meeting on September 17, with interest rate futures reflecting a 10% chance of a 50-basis point cut, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Overall, Monday was another day of “waiting” day for potential market moving catalysts in coming days, with Apple’s (AAPL) highly anticipated iPhone event tomorrow afternoon and Oracle (ORCL) earnings tomorrow evening (9/9) along with key inflation data mid-week with PPI on 9.10 and CPI on Thursday 9/11. The European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting 9/11, but no changes expected while the Fed is in their “blackout period” ahead of their policy meeting next week where a 25-bps cut is widely anticipated. There are also a ton of Wall Street conferences taking place across healthcare, financial, solar, Consumer and Technology sectors. The market continues to be led by technology stocks, specifically semis and Mag 7 Mega caps as the ongoing massive investment in AI has stoked buying optimism and market euphoria since the April lows, but Goldman Sachs did warn in a report Friday that major slowdown in AI investment by Big Tech could cut the S&P 500’s valuation multiple by up to 20%. Goldman did add the current risk is below the level of previous bubbles. The fallout depends on hyperscaler capital expenditure trends. Analysts expect a deceleration in late 2025 or 2026, though guidance keeps rising.

In Data: NY Fed said 1y consumer inflation expectations 3.2% in Aug. vs 3.1%; 3-yr consumer inflation expectations unchanged at 3% and 5-yr consumer inflation expectations unchanged at 2.9%. US consumers downgraded their views of labor market in August. In macro, France’s parliament voted on Monday to bring down the government over its plans to tame the ballooning national debt, deepening a political crisis and handing President Emmanuel Macron the task of finding a fifth prime minister in less than two years. Also, the Japanese yen remained under pressure after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba confirmed his resignation over the weekend.

• December gold rose $24.10 or 0.66% to settle at $3,677.40 an ounce, another all-time high adding to last week’s strength (traded in positive territory for 8 of the last 9 trading days). The dollar index (DXY) slid -0.35% at 97.43, extending declines last week as a weaker jobs report led to rising expectations of interest rate easing by the Fed.
• U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $62.26/bbl, up 39 cents, or 0.63% while Brent crude gained $0.52 or 0.79% to settle at $66.02 per barrel, recovering some of last week’s losses, after producer group OPEC+ opted for a modest output hike and investors priced in the possibility of more sanctions on Russian crude. Front-month gas futures for October delivery on the NYMEX rose 4.2 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $3.09 per million British thermal units, their highest close since July 31.

• In Footwear: NKE shares outperformed in weaker sports apparel/footwear segment as Jefferies adds Nike to the ‘Franchise Picks Lists’ and maintains Buy & $115 tgt saying thinks the street is underappreciating Nike’s recovery and stated that Nike is the clear category leader and positives include holiday order books higher y/y.
• In Specialty Retail: CHWY was upgraded to Outperform and raise tgt to $50 at Mizuho following a pullback off recent highs, as now sees the risk / reward for shares tilted heavily upwards. CHWY will be reporting Q2 results on Wednesday morning and updating FY25E guidance in the process.
• In Consumer Products: in tobacco, BTI was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus with a $62 price target saying the company’s plan to pivot towards the growing smokeless tobacco market is working, particularly in the large U.S. market and globally with its Velo product, and the outlook looks promising.

• In Cruise sector: NCLH announces registered direct offering of shares to certain holders of its 2027 exchangeable notes, and private offering of $1.2 bln exchangeable notes due 2030 and said intends to use net proceeds to repurchase a portion of its 1.125% exchangeable notes due 2027 and 2.5% exchangeable notes due 2027.
• In Leisure Products: BC was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Texas Capital and raising its tgt from $55 to $80 saying as the “arms dealer” to the recreational marine industry, the firm has been confident in the company’s position to benefit from a recovery in consumer demand, and restart in OEM boat production, but cautious until there were more concrete signs of a recovery and/ or more attractive entry point for the shares.

• In Metals: TECK was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Deutsche Bank noting the shares have been a major laggard this year due to ongoing ramp-up issues at QB. From a relatively high level of optimism mid last year, as TECK transformed into a copper pure play, investor sentiment now seems rock-bottom.
• In Chemicals: NTR said it will sell its 50% stake in Argentina-based nitrogen producer Profertil for $600M, as the potash producer shifts focus away from South America. The stake will be acquired jointly by agribusiness companies AGRO and Asociacion de Cooperativas Argentinas (ACA) through an 80%-20% partnership.
• In Packaging: GEF, PKG, SW, IP shares weak initially as OCC prices were down -3% M/M as West Coast sees incremental weakness from export pricing. Wells Fargo noted for the 11th time since June 2024 and 5th time in 2025, OCC prices declined m/m in September. The blended price across the US regions was $57/ton in Sept., down 3% ($2) from August (which had been flat w/ July).

• In Crypto: BLSH was initiated coverage on Wall Street today following its recent IPO. Bernstein expects BLSH to be the 2nd largest institutional exchange after Coinbase. This would require BLSH to successfully launch its U.S business in 2026E. Initiated with Buy/Overweight ratings at Citi ($66 tgt), Rosenblatt ($60 tgt), Cantor ($56 tgt), Canaccord ($68 tgt), and Hold/Neutral at Jefferies ($49 tgt), JP Morgan ($50 tgt), Bernstein ($60 tgt).

• DNTH shares fell after announcing data for antibody claseprubart from a Phase 2 trial in generalized myasthenia gravis; said experimental drug claseprubart improved symptoms in adults with generalized myasthenia gravis in a mid-stage trial. The 13-week trial enrolled 65 patients, and patients received shots under the skin every two weeks at either 300 mg, 600 mg, or a placebo.
• IDYA said early Phase 1 data for its small-cell lung cancer therapy IDE849 (SHR-4849), developed with Hengrui Pharma, showed strong results. The drug achieved an 80% overall response rate (ORR) and 70% confirmed ORR in second-line patients, with a 73.7% ORR across all settings and median progression-free survival of 6.7 months.
• LLY said its blood cancer treatment Jaypirca met the main goal in a late-stage study in patients who have not received prior treatment.
• OCUL to highlight ongoing AXPAXLI wet AMD registrational program, strategy and next steps in NPDR and DME, and global commercial opportunity for AXPAXLI. Event to feature global retinal disease experts in a live event that will take place in New York City on September 30, 2025, at 2:00 PM ET.
• PFE and BNTX announced topline results from an ongoing phase 3 trial cohort evaluating 30-µg Dose Of LP.8.1-adapted monovalent Comirnaty 2025-2026 formula, demonstrating robust immune response in older patients.
• RAPP shares soared after announcing positive topline results from Phase 2a clinical trial of RAP-219 in patients with focal onset seizures. Patients achieved 77.8% reduction in clinical seizures (p=0.01), with 24% achieving seizure freedom for the 8-week treatment period (p<0.0001). Trial met primary long episode endpoints with high statistical significance, and RAP-219 was generally well tolerated.
• REGN advances allergy pipeline with two positive phase 3 trials evaluating first-in-class antibody-blockers of cat and birch allergies; both trials met primary and secondary endpoints; combination therapy well-tolerated with no serious adverse events.
• SMMT shares fell on mixed lung cancer data; presented data from its Phase 3 HARMONi trial of ivonescimab vs. placebo plus chemo, in patient with EGFR+ NSCLC progressed with 3rd gen EGFR-TKI treatment. The study results, reported on Sunday, showed that the drug, ivonescimab, had stronger benefit in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in China, compared with patients in the other two regions.
• In Healthcare Services: FORD shares surged after the design company said it received $1.65 billion in cash and stablecoin commitments for a private investment in public equity offering to fund a Solana-focused digital asset treasury strategy.

• PL shares jumped on earnings results as Q2 revs rose 20% y/y to $73.38M, topping the $65.7M estimate and said it launched 2 high-resolution Pelican satellites, enhancing data capabilities; guided Q3 revs $71M-$74M vs. est. $68.8M and guided FY revs above consensus views as well.
• SAIC was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan saying SAIC’s revenue outlook has weakened in recent months and while there should be less risk to the current forecast, the company’s strategic pivot is proving more challenging than expected following the change of administration.
• TDG was downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital and cut tgt to $1,385 from $1,550 saying they see a continued period of uncertainty for the stock

• Tower stocks AMT, CCI, SBAC shares fell after SATSspectrum sale to SpaceX – recall few weeks back the group was hit after the $23B deal with SATS was seen as a significant investment for AT which may lead to a temporary reduction in its CAPEX-spending on other areas, such as leasing additional tower space or deploying new infrastructure. Also, the spectrum new reflects market optimism about satellite-based communication solutions and signal that satellite technologies are gaining traction (maybe at their expense).
• In Media: ROKU price tgt was raised to $145 from $110 at Citizens after analyzing Roku’s long-term opportunity and estimate it could generate $1.6B in free cash flow by 2030. Says Roku remains the leading U.S. TV OS, reaching 50% of broadband households and capturing 21.4% of total U.S. TV viewing time in July 2025, equivalent to a 45% CTV share; believes Roku could generate $5.7B in U.S. advertising revenue by 2030. StubHub (STUB) aims to raise up to $9.2B in IPO, pricing at $22 to $25 per share. StubHub said it plans to raise as much as $851M in its upcoming initial public offering, giving it a valuation of up to $9.2B
• In Internet: WIX shares fell after announcing a private offering of $750 mln 0% 5-yr convertible bonds and said it intends to use proceeds for general purposes, including fund share repurchases under its existing buyback program and to acquire complementary businesses, products, services or technologies. PUBM filed a lawsuit against GOOGL in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia. The lawsuit seeks financial damages and aims to restore fair competition in the digital advertising space, following a ruling in April 2025 that found Google engaged in anticompetitive behavior to maintain monopoly power in certain markets.

• Security Software: Netskope (NTSK) is seeking a valuation of up to $6.5 billion in its initial public offering in the United States, the cloud-based cybersecurity firm said on Monday. Netskope said it would sell 47.8 million shares, priced between $15 and $17 apiece, to raise as much as $813 million. Netskope, founded in 2012, develops cloud security software that helps businesses safeguard apps, websites and data from cyber threats.
• In Hardware/Quantum: IBM shares rallied after comments at Goldman Sachs conference saying they are exiting first half with over $7.5B dollar book of business, about 80% of that is consulting; said have today over 75 quantum computers in production scaling; says by 2028, are going to demonstrate the first error corrected IBM quantum computer

• AVGO shares advanced after jumping last Friday on a $10B AI Chip order (still didn’t’ take out Friday intraday high though of $356.34).
• LRCX initiated with an opening upside 30-day catalyst watch at Citigroup saying they expect the SEMICON WEST equipment show in Phoenix Oct 6-8 to be a positive catalyst for the group and expect equipment makers to raise current flat to +5% 2026 WFE indications higher (Citi +10% Y/Y).
• SMTC announced two new FiberEdge(R) transimpedance amplifiers (TIAs) designed to address power efficiency challenges in AI infrastructure scaling. The new TIAs expand Semtech’s industry-leading signal integrity portfolio and further enhance power efficiency for continued 800G deployment optimization.