Mid-Morning Look

Tuesday, September 09, 2025

U.S. stocks little changed to start the day, taking a large downward revision to annual jobs data in stride, as the U.S. Labor dept said preliminary estimate of nonfarm payrolls benchmark revision for year would decrease March 2025 level of employment by 911,000, or 0.6%, and compared to the -598K revisions in 2024 and -187K in 2023, showing the job market is far weaker than appeared. This marks the biggest annual revision on record and exceeded expectations of 700-800K. The 2009 previous record revision was -902,000. The dollar fell initially on the report before rebounding as stocks steadied on rising bets for additional calls for rate cuts in 2025 after the widely expected 25-bps cut in September (with some calls for 50bps). With the revisions behind us, attention turns to the Apple (AAPL) iPhone event this afternoon at 1:00 pm et in Cupertino, then inflation data the next two days (PPI tomorrow and CPI on Thursday 9/11). In stock news, a big deal in the AI/infrastructure space as MSFT signs a $17B deal with NBIS sending shares surging (also lifting shares of CRWV, IREN, others); a biotech deal where NVS buys TRML for a 50% premiums and TECK and NGLOY announced a merger in the metals & mining sector. Earnings tonight for ORCL in software. Energy stocks rise as oil extends gains after the Israeli military said it carried out an attack on Hamas leadership in Qatari capital Doha in an escalation of the conflict in the region.

• In Hardware/PC sector: DELL announced the immediate resignation of CFO, Yvonne McGill (staying at Dell thru Oct 31st to enable orderly transition), to pursue other opportunities after 30+ years at the company. Dell has appointed David Kennedy, SVP, Global Operations & Finance as interim CFO and executing exhaustive internal + external search. SONY was upgraded to Buy at Daiwa, anticipating renewed investor interest in the firm’s entertainment-focused strategy following the partial spin-off of the financial services business.
• In Hotels & Lodging: Citigroup upgraded Hyatt (H) to Buy from Neutral and raised its tgt to $167 from $138 saying while continues to anticipate a relatively tepid RevPAR environment, it believes several factors can drive share appreciation from current levels including: 1) outsized net rooms growth and (2) a concentration at the upper end of the market. The firm downgraded PK to Neutral from Buy and lowered tgt to $12 as believes an increasingly tepid RevPAR environment, potential for continued pullback in consumer travel, and challenging transaction environment are likely to weigh on valuation in the near term.

• NBIS +37%; shares jumped over 50% after saying it will provide MSFT with GPU infrastructure capacity, in a deal worth $17.4 billion, over a five-year term.
• TEAM +4%; after announcing it is ending its data center product over the coming three years and will move customers to its cloud platform
• TECK +12%; as Anglo (NGLOY) and TECK are to merge, the two companies said. Under the proposed deal, which will require regulatory approval, Anglo American shareholders would own 62.4% of the newly combined company, Anglo Teck, while shareholders in Teck will hold 37.6%.
• TRML +58%; as NVS said it will acquire TRML in a $1.4B cash deal, with TRML holders to receive $48 per share, representing a premium of 59% to last close of $30.18. The deal expected to close in Q4, TRML will become an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of Novartis. https://tinyurl.com/58a89s6n
• UNH +2%; shares rise after reaffirms their adjusted earnings per share expectations for 2025, following the acquisition of Amedisys in August. UnitedHealth told investors it expects about 78% of its Medicare Advantage members will be in 4-star or higher plans for 2027, in line with past performance.

• ASTS -6%; was downgraded to Neutral from Buy and lowered tgt to $43 from $62 as believes Starlink’s newly announced acquisition of SAT’s S-Band spectrum for $19B fortifies its position in the space to cellular market and increases risk for ASTS as it drives utilization on its nascent constellation
• CNM -21%; shares tumbled after reported mixed Q2 results (EPS beat and revs $2.09B missed $2.12B est.) while narrows FY25 revenue view to $7.6B-$7.7B from $7.6B-$7.8B and lowered its FY25 adjusted EBITDA view to $920M-$940M from $950M-$1B.
• NWS -2%; after Rupert Murdoch and his children resolved a messy family feud with a settlement that gives favored son Lachlan Murdoch broad control and ensures Fox News and the rest of the sprawling media empire retains its conservative slant.
• PL -4%; after the company said it would offer $300 million of Convertible Senior Notes due 2030 (follows a 48% advance on Monday after better earnings/guidance).
• SOC -14%; following news that Governor Gavin Newsom seeks to impose further restrictions on California’s offshore oil industry, a setback to Sable and its controversial project off the coast of Santa Barbara County. https://tinyurl.com/4p947628