Closing Recap

Tuesday, September 09, 2025

U.S. stocks were choppy on Tuesday before edging higher to close near the best levels of the day after digesting a weaker than expected annual jobs revision, an Apple (AAPL) product announcement, several large M&A deals, while awaiting earnings results from ORCL overnight and PPI inflation data tomorrow morning (and CPI on Thursday). Last Friday’s nonfarm payroll numbers appeared to have sealed the case for a 25bp cut at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, but data showing the U.S. economy likely created 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than previously estimated, suggesting job growth was already stalling before tariffs on imports, and much weaker in the prior administration then had been let on put chances of more aggressive cuts on the table by the Fed in coming months. Energy stocks rise as oil extends gains after the Israeli military said it carried out an attack on Hamas leadership in Qatari capital Doha in an escalation of the conflict in the region. Gold prices hit another all-time high, while crypto was mixed. Apple introduced new AirPods line (first upgrade in 3-years), new Apple watch features/upgrades and new iPhone 17. Industrials and Materials were the biggest drags in the S&P while Utilities, Communications, Financials and Healthcare were the leaders.

The BLS announced benchmark revisions to payroll figures covering the 12-month period ending in March today.

Today’s key event is the BLS preliminary payrolls benchmark revision at 15:00 BST/10:00 ET. It is expected to cut 400k–900k jobs from the year to March 2025. That would slash average monthly gains to 60k–90k from ~150k.

Based on quarterly data from these unemployment-tax records, job growth during the 12 months ended March is estimated to have been overstated by anywhere between 500,000 and 1M. Currently, payroll employment has been measured as +1.758M over this period, or around 146K jobs per month. A downward revision of 500,000 would lower the 12-month payroll gain to 1.258M, or around 105,000 jobs per month for this period. A downward revision of 1M would lower the 12-month payroll gain to 758K, or 63K jobs per month.”

• Oil prices rose after the Israeli military said it carried out an attack on Hamas leadership in Qatari capital Doha in an escalation of the conflict in the region. U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $62.63/bbl, up 37 cents, or 0.59% but pulled back off earlier highs while Brent gained $0.37 to settle at $66.39 per barrel. Nymex natural gas settles up 0.9% at $3.117/mmBtu.
• The U.S. dollar index (DXY) hit a seven-week low this morning of 97.25, ahead of the release of preliminary benchmark revisions for jobs data covering the period from April 2024 to March 2025. The dollar then rallied despite the weaker revisions, bouncing all day to finish near best levels at 97.80. The euro slipped to lows 1.1706 after touching its strongest level since July 24 around 1.178.
• The U.S. Treasury sold $58B in 3-year notes at high yield 3.485%, below the 3.492% when issued prior, with bid-to-cover ratio 2.73, as primary dealers take 8.37% of U.S. 3-year notes sale, direct 17.39% and indirect 74.24% (2^nd highest reading on record). After tumbling in recent days, Treasury yields saw a modest bounce today with the 10-yr +3bps to 4.076% and the 2-yr +5bps to 3.54%.

• In Hotels & Lodging: Citigroup upgraded Hyatt (H) to Buy from Neutral and raised its tgt to $167 from $138 saying while continues to anticipate a relatively tepid RevPAR environment, it believes several factors can drive share appreciation from current levels including: 1) outsized net rooms growth and (2) a concentration at the upper end of the market. The firm downgraded PK to Neutral from Buy and lowered tgt to $12 as believes an increasingly tepid RevPAR environment, potential for continued pullback in consumer travel, and challenging transaction environment are likely to weigh on valuation in the near term.
• In Gaming/Casinos: Jefferies said its latest OSB survey, which showed continued growth and strong interest in in-play betting, a tailwind for DKNG and that 44% of respondents noted in-play betting availability was “very important” (up 9pts vs June), and 92% said more in-play betting opportunities would improve their experience.

• In Energy: SOC shares fell after Bloomberg reported that California Governor Newsom is seeking to impose further restrictions on California’s offshore oil industry, a setback to Sable Offshore and its controversial project off the coast of Santa Barbara County. The regulation is seen as a way to alleviate environmental concerns from another proposal that would ease drilling permits in the state’s interior, with both proposals expected to be included in legislative text this week https://tinyurl.com/4p947628; NEXT said COP will purchase 1 million tonnes per annum of LNG from its Rio Grande export facility in Texas for 20 years.
• In Refiners: PSX said it will acquire the remaining 50% stake in WRB Refining from Cenovus Energy CVE.TO for $1.4 billion, giving it full ownership of two major U.S. refineries. WRB includes the Wood River refinery in Illinois and the Borger refinery in Texas, which have a combined crude throughput capacity of 495,000 barrels per day (bpd). Bloomberg reported that California in talks to pay hundreds of millions to VLO to stave off refinery shutdown.

• In Insurance: BHF shares rose after the Financial Times reported that Aquarian Holdings is in late stage talks with two Middle Eastern investors to finance a takeover of the life insurer. https://tinyurl.com/43fduwfp  
• In Brokers & Exchanges: Crypto exchange Gemini has secured NDAQ as a strategic investor, according to Reuters. Nasdaq will buy $50 million worth of Gemini shares in a private placement at the time of its IPO, the outlet reported. https://tinyurl.com/nhhpz54e ; CBOE said it would launch so-called continuous futures for bitcoin and ether starting November 10, as the derivatives exchange looks to expand its crypto offerings.
• In Asset Managers: IVZ preliminary month-end assets under management (AUM) of $2,063.6B, an increase of 1.9% versus previous month-end. The firm delivered net long-term inflows of $11.1B in the month. Non-management fee earning net inflows were $1.9B and money market net outflows were $7.4B.
• In Crypto: shares of IREN, CIFR, WULF, CORZ were among some companies rallying following the announcement of NBIS $17.4B deal with MSFT to provide GPU infrastructure capacity. The deal highlights the surging demand for AI and high-performance computing infrastructure, which positively impacts these related companies.

• IONS said the U.S. FDA has granted breakthrough therapy designation to its experimental drug, ION582, for the treatment of a rare neurological disease called Angelman syndrome.
• NVS said it will acquire TRML in a $1.4B cash deal, with TRML holders to receive $48 per share, representing a premium of 59% to last close of $30.18. The deal expected to close in Q4, TRML will become an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of Novartis. https://tinyurl.com/58a89s6n

• In Managed Care: UNH shares rise after reaffirms their adjusted earnings per share expectations for 2025, following the acquisition of Amedisys in August. UnitedHealth told investors it expects about 78% of its Medicare Advantage members will be in 4-star or higher plans for 2027, in line with past performance. HUM shares tumbled while CNC advanced as other MA Star plans revealed.
• In Contract Research Organization (CRO): Jefferies with three ratings changes, upgrading CRL to Buy from Hold (tgt to $195 from $142) saying the company’s discovery and safety assessment bookings are improving and it has several ways to create value via a sale of all or part of its manufacturing solutions segment; IQV was upgraded to Buy from Hold (tgt to $225 from $195) saying the company’s "stronger" business-to-business metrics and workforce stability signal that it is holding up better than peers; and downgraded ICLR to Hold from Buy (tgt to $175 from $220) as now sees too many headwinds to continue to recommend.

• In Aerospace & Defense: ASTS was downgraded to Neutral from Buy and lowered tgt to $43 from $62 as believes Starlink’s newly announced acquisition of SAT’s S-Band spectrum for $19B fortifies its position in the space to cellular market and increases risk for ASTS as it drives utilization on its nascent constellation. PL shares declined after the company said it would offer $300 million of Convertible Senior Notes due 2030 (follows a 48% advance on Monday after better earnings/guidance). BA said that it delivered 57 jets in August, up from 48 in July. It was the highest number of deliveries in August since 2018, when the U.S. planemaker handed over 64 airliners. By August 31, the company had delivered 385 jets in 2025, already surpassing its full-year 2024 total of 348 planes.

• In Paper & Packaging: SEE was upgraded to Overweight from Neutra at JP Morgan saying improved volumes and profitability in Protective for 2026 coupled to good free cash generation may jump-start the share price and thinks that Sealed Air trades at a discount to its private market value.
• In Lithium sector: shares of ALB, SQM, SGML all declined on easing supply expectations; Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) is expected to soon resume production at lithium mine in Yichun in southern China, Securities Times reported.
• In Uranium: UUUU (52-week highs) said that a preliminary batch of rare earths provided to a South Korean manufacturer of drive unit motor cores was converted into permanent magnets. The producer of uranium, rare earth elements and other critical minerals said Tuesday that high-purity neodymium-praseodymium oxide produced at its White Mesa Mill in Utah has been manufactured into commercial scale rare earth permanent magnets by the unidentified company in South Korea.
• In Chemicals: Wells Fargo noted CMA reported North American PE prices settled flat M/M in August after holding steady M/M in July and increasing $0.03/lb M/M in June. As a reminder, producers had sent out letters announcing price increases of $0.03-0.05/lb for the month. August marked the second consecutive month of failed pricing nomination. Following August’s flat PE pricing settlement, lowers ests DOW, LYB.

• In Media: for FOXA, NWS, the Murdoch family reached an agreement to eliminate three children – Prudence, Elisabeth and James – as beneficiaries of the trust. The agreement will solidify Lachlan’s influence over both Fox and News Corp. Citi noted it may cause the spread between the Class B shares and Class A shares to narrow.
• In Data Center/AI news: NBIS shares jumped after saying it will provide MSFT with GPU infrastructure capacity, in a deal worth $17.4 billion, over a five-year term. CRWV announced the launch of CoreWeave Ventures, a new initiative committed to backing founders and companies developing the platforms and technologies shaping the AI ecosystem and the next frontier of computing. SMCI shares rallied after NOK announced an artificial-intelligence partnership with the server maker. OpenAI has projected its 2030 revenue will rise about 15% to roughly $200 billion. The company expects ChatGPT to generate nearly $70 billion in additional revenue over the next six years compared to earlier projections, said The Information.
• In Hardware/PC sector: DELL announced the immediate resignation of CFO, Yvonne McGill (staying at Dell thru Oct 31st to enable orderly transition), to pursue other opportunities after 30+ years at the company. Dell has appointed David Kennedy, SVP, Global Operations & Finance as interim CFO. SONY was upgraded to Buy at Daiwa, anticipating renewed investor interest in the firm’s entertainment-focused strategy following the partial spin-off of the financial services business.
• In Software: TEAM shares rallied after announcing it is ending its data center product over the coming three years and will move customers to its cloud platform. YEXT Q2 adj net income $16.3M vs. est. $15.7M; Q2 $0.13 vs. est. $0.12; Q2 revs rose 16% y/y to $113.1M vs. est. $111.2M; Q2 Direct customers represented 83% of total ARR, totaling $369.5M, an 18% y/y increase on an as-reported basis. IOT shares fell after the International Trade Commission ruled that Motive Technologies didn’t infringe Samsara’s U.S. patents.
• In Semiconductors: ASML said it is investing €1.3 billion ($1.5 billion) in France’s Mistral AI, a move that shores up one of Europe’s most important artificial intelligence (AI) startup. With the investment, ASML becomes the largest shareholder in Mistral with an 11% stake, the companies said.