Morning Preview: July 24, 2025

Early Look

Thursday, July 24, 2025

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	-159.00	0.35%	45,055
S&P 500	2.25	0.04%	6,398
Nasdaq	65.50	0.28%	23,376

After closing at fresh record highs for the S&P 500 (its 12^th of the year) and Nasdaq (its 13^th closing high of year) on Wednesday behind global trade related headlines, U.S. futures are looking at a flattish open ahead of another busy day of corporate earnings. On Wednesday, investors seemed relieved over trade-related news, as the European Union and the U.S. are moving toward a trade deal that could include a 15% U.S. baseline tariff on EU goods and possible exemptions, two European diplomats said on Wednesday. This would come on the heels of a U.S.-Japan deal announced on Tuesday. Strength was broad based again yesterday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average just missed finishing at a record, ending down just 0.01% from its December 4, 2024, record finish, while the SmallCap Rusell 2000 outperformed again this week. Investors have shown no concern ahead of the August 1st deadline looming on the trade front. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index jumped 655 points to 41,826, the Shanghai Index gained 23 points to 3,605, and the Hang Seng Index rose 129 points to 25,667. In Europe, the German DAX is up 115 points to 24,356, while the FTSE 100 rises 85 points to 9,146. In earnings overnight, two of the big mega cap tech names reported with GOOGL +3% after results, while did boost its capex spending plan while Tesla (TSLA) shares fall -6% on its results and Dow component IBM drops on results, leading the Dow lower. In Chemicals DOW shares fall on dividend cut and EPS loss, CMG falls on weaker results in restaurants, and STM falls in chip space on unexpected loss. Among upside movers on earnings include software co NOW, chip maker MXL, and casino LVS with a heavy dose of results this morning.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

The S&P 500 Index climbed 49.29 points, or 0.78%, to 6,358.91

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 507.85 points, or 1.14%, to 45,010.29
The Nasdaq Composite gained 127.33 points, or 0.61%, to 21,020.02
The Russell 2000 Index advanced 34.38 points, or 1.53% to 2,283.14

Economic Calendar for Today

8:30 AM ET Weekly Jobless Claims

8:30 AM ET Continuing Claims
8:30 AM ET National Activity index for June
9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI-flash for July
9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI-flash for July
9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI-flash for July
10:00 AM ET New Home Sales M/m for June
10:30 AM ET Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
11:00 AM ET Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for July
1:00 PM ET U.S. Treasury to sell $18B in 10-year TIPS notes

Earnings Calendar:

Earnings Before the Open: AAL AB ADT ALLE AMAL AMBP AMP AOS AUB BC BFH BHLB BX CNP CNX CTS CX DAR DCOM DOV DOW FCFS FCN FLEX FSV FTI GPI GTX HNI HON IBCP IMAX IRDM ITGR KDP LADR LAZ LH LHX LKQ LUV MBLY MPX MTLS NDAQ NOK NVCR ORI POOL PTEN R RES RPM SAH STBA STM TECK TRU TSCO TXT UNP VC VLO VLY WAB WNS WST

Earnings After the Close: ALEX ASB BELFA BY BYD COKE COLB COUR CUBI DECK DLR DOC ENVA EW FBIZ FFBC FFIC FISI GBCI HTH HXL INTC IVR JAKK KN KNSL LBRT MC MHK MTX NEM OPTT OVV PECO PINE RPT SCHL SKYW SLM SSB TBBK ULH UVE VRSN WSFS WY

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	0.78	66.03
Brent	0.78	69.297
Gold	-28.90	3,368.70
EUR/USD	-0.0024	1.1748
JPY/USD	0.08	146.57
10-Year Note	+0.016	4.404%

World News

The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was +2.8 vs +0.3 last week. Bulls fall to 36.8% from 39.3%, Neutrals rise to 29.2% from 21.8%, Bears fall to 34% from 39%.

The European Central Bank is set to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, pausing after seven straight cuts as it waited for the fog surrounding Europe’s trade relations with the United States to clear.

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) Q2 adj EPS $0.40, in-line with ests on revs $22.5B vs. est. $22.64B; Q2 gross margin 17.2%, vs. est. 16.5%; says it has started initial production of a more affordable model and expects volume production in the second half of the year; 2Q free cash flow $146M vs. est. $760M; said continue to expand our vehicle offering, with volume production of affordable model planned for 2H’25. CEO Musk said that US government cuts in support for electric vehicle makers could lead to a ‘few rough quarters’ for the company before a wave of revenue from self-driving software and services begins late next year.

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) shares rise 15% after the company on Wednesday launched a denim campaign with actress Sydney Sweeney to boost demand and draw Gen Z shoppers. Partnered with Sweeney for its fall season denim collection.
Birkenstock (BIRK) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) shares fell on results; Q2 adj EPS $0.33, in-line with consensus and revs also in-line at $3.1B while Q2 comparable restaurant sales decreased (-4%); lowered its annual sales growth target to be about flat y/y, compared with its prior target of growth in the low single-digit range.
Churchill Downs (CHDN) Q2 adj EPS $3.10 vs. est. $3.01; Q2 revs $934.4M vs. est. $924.14M; announces new $500M share repurchase program.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Q2 adj EPS $0.79 vs est. $0.53, op Inc $783Mm vs est. $627.7Mm on revs $3.175B vs est. $2.831B.
Mattel (MAT) Q2 adj EPS $0.19 vs. est. $0.16; Q2 revs $1.02B vs. est. $1.05B; cuts FY25 EPS view to $1.54-$1.66 from $1.66-$1.72 (est. $1.64) and lowers FY25 net sales growth view to 1%-3% from 2%-3%; Q2 Barbie posted a 25% drop in gross billings, Fisher-Price -21% decline in gross billings.
O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Q2 sales $4.53B vs. est. $4.533B; Q2 comp sales growth +4.1%; Q2 EPS in-line at $0.78; guides FY revs $17.5B-$17.8B (vs. est. $17.64B) and EPS $2.85-$2.95 (vs. est. $2.93).
QuantumScape (QS) Q2 EPS ($0.20) vs est. ($0.20); guides FY adj EBITDA ($270Mm)-($250Mm) vs est. ($345.99Mm).
Wyndham Hotels (WH) Q2 adj EPS $1.33 vs est. $1.17, adj EBITDA $195Mm vs est. $183.93Mm on revs $397Mm vs est. $385.2Mm; guides FY rooms growth 4.0-4.6%, adj EPS $4.60-4.78 vs est. $4.68; Q2 lobal RevPAR decreased 3% in constant currency compared to 2024, reflecting a 4% decline in the U.S. and 1% growth internationally.

Energy, Industrials and Materials

CSX Corp. (CSX) Q2 EPS $0.44 vs. est. $0.42; Q2 revs fell -3% y/y to $3.57B vs. est. $3.58B; Q2 total volume of 1.58M units for the quarter was flat compared to second quarter 2024 and up 4% sequentially; Operating income of $1.28 billion decreased 11% y/y.

Dow Chemical (DOW) reports a wider-than-expected Q1 EPS loss of (-$0.42) vs. est. loss (-$0.17), hurt by lower prices and weak demand for its products; said it is cutting dividend by 50% in response to prolonged industry downturn; Q2 Volume decreased 1% year-over-year, as gains in the U.S. and Canada were more than offset by declines in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and India.
Graco (GGG) Q2 adj EPS $0.75 vs est. $0.79 on revs $571.8Mm vs est. $590.3Mm; says component costs have risen due to tariffs; maintain FY revs guide; says confidence in previous guidance for rest of the year.
Honeywell (HON) Q2 adj EPS $2.75 vs. est. $2.66; Q2 revs $10.35B vs. est. $10.06B; raises FY25 adjusted EPS view to $10.45-$10.65 from $10.20-$10.50 (est. $10.40); raises FY25 revenue view to $40.8B-$41.3B from $39.6B-$40.5B (est. $40.32B); and backs FY25 free cash flow view $5.4B-$5.8B.
Knight-Swift Transport (KNX) Q2 adj EPS $0.35 vs est. $0.33 on revs $1.9B vs est. $1.873B.
Reliance Inc. (RS) Q2 adj EPS $4.43 vs est. $4.68 on sales $3.66B vs est. $3.68B, adj gr mgn 29.9%; guides Q3 adj EPS $3.60-3.80 below consensus est. $4.36.
Rollins (ROL) Q2 adj EPS $0.30 vs est. $0.30, adj EBITDA $231Mm vs est. $231.4Mm on revs $1.0B vs est. $989.1Mm.
Sonoco Products (SON) updates expected FY adj EPS to target about $6 or low end of previous FY guidance.
Southwest Airlines Co (LUV) board authorizes new $2.0B share repurchase program; sees Q3 outlook RASM down 2% to up 2%, Q3 CASM-x up 3.5% to 5.5% and outlook Q3 ASM about flat.
Waste Connections (WCN) Q2 adj EPS $1.29 vs est. $1.25, adj EBITDA $786.4Mm vs est. $780.78Mm on revs $2.41B vs est. $2.393B; guides FY revs $9.45B vs est. $9.523B.

Financials

Bank of America (BAC) increases common stock dividend 8% to $0.28 per share, authorizes $40B stock repurchase program.

Annaly (NLY) Q2 adj EPS $0.73 vs est. $0.72 on NII $273.2Mm.
Raymond James (RJF) Q2 adj EPS $2.18 vs. est. $2.37; while net revs rose 5% to $3.4B vs. est. $3.38B; said results included a $58M reserve increase associated with the settlement of a legal matter related to bond underwriting; Q2 revenue for its private client group segment was up 3% to $2.49B and its capital markets revenue was up 15% from last year to $381M.
Renaissance Holdings (RNR) Q2 adj EPS $12.29 vs est. $9.84 on revs $3.21B vs est. $2.492B, gross premiums written 3.421B vs est. $3.597B.
United Rentals (URI) Q2 adj EPS $10.47 vs est. $10.54, adj EBITDA $1.81B vs est. $1.785B on revs $3.943B vs est. $3.903B; guides FY revs $15.8-16.1B vs est. $15.887B, adj EBITDA $7.3-7.45B vs est. $7.248B.

Healthcare

Community Health Services (CYH) announced that Tim Hingtgen will retire from his position as chief executive officer and as a member of the Board, effective September 30; reports Q2 adjusted EPS loss (-$0.05) vs. est. loss (-$0.10; Q2 revs $3.13B vs. est. $3.05B; Q2 same-store basis, admissions increased 0.3% while adjusted admissions decreased 0.7%, compared to the same period in 2024.

Icon (ICLR) Q2 adj EPS $3.26 vs. est. $3.18; Q2 revs $2.02B vs. est. $1.98; sees FY25 adjusted EPS $13.00-$14.00 vs. est. $13.25 and sees FY25 revenue $7.85B-$8.15B vs. consensus $7.96B; authorizes $500M expansion to share repurchase program.
Molina Health (MOH) Q2 adj EPS $5.48 vs. est. $5.53; Q2 revs $11.43B vs. est. $10.94B; cuts FY25 EPS view to at least $19 from $21.50-$22.50 (est. $22.53) as it expects higher medical care costs to weigh on the health insurer’s results, while sees FY25 revenue view $42B, below consensus $44.27B.
Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) Q2 EPS ($0.58) vs est. ($0.49) on op exp $74.574Mm; said remain on track to announce top-line data from the VENTURE-Oral study in the second half of the year; with respect to amylin agonist program, continue to make progress toward an IND filing, expected to submit later this year.
Waystar (WAY) is nearing a deal to buy privately held Iodine Software in a deal worth over $1.2 billion including debt, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

Technology, Media & Telecom

Alphabet (GOOGL) Q2 EPS $2.31 vs est. $2.18 on revs $96.43B vs est. $93.94B, cloud revs $13.624B, search revs $54.19B, ad revs $71.34B; says AI positively impacting every part of the business; increasing investment in capital expenditures in 2025 to approximately $85 billion, versus $75 billion prior; number of new Google cloud customers climbed by nearly 28% qtr over qtr, or more than 85,000 enterprises.

IBM Corp. (IBM) Q2 adj EPS $2.80 tops consensus $2.65; Q2 revenue rose 8% y/y to $16.98B vs. est. $16.59B; Software revenue increased 10% to $7.39B, just below analysts’ expectations of $7.43B while revenue in its hybrid cloud business, which includes its Red Hat cloud-management software, climbed 16%. Infrastructure revenue rose 14% to $4.14B, ahead of analysts’ $3.76B forecast; continues to expect constant currency revenue growth of at least 5% for 2025.
ServiceNow (NOW) Q2 adj EPS $4.09 vs est. $3.57 on revs $3.215B vs est. $3.121B, subscription revs $3.113B; sees Q3 subscription revs $3.26-3.27B vs est. $3.20B and FY subscription revs $12.78-12.80B vs est. $12.66B.
Crown Castle (CCI) Q2 AFFO/shr $1.02 vs est. $0.97, adj EBITDA $705Mm vs est. $683.09Mm on revs $1.008B vs est. $1.039B; guides at midpoint FY revs $4.02B vs est. $4.219B, adj EBITDA $2.805B vs est. $2.829B and AFFO/shr $4.20 vs est. $4.04.
MaxLinear (MXL) Q2 EPS $0.02 in-line with consensus on revs rose 18% y/y to $108.813M vs. est. $104.94M; sees Q3 revenue $115M-$135M, vs. consensus $115.89M; Q2 GAAP gross margin was 56.5%, compared to 56.1% in the prior quarter, and 54.6% in the year-ago quarter.
SS&C Technologies (SSNC) Q2 adj EPS $1.45 vs. est. $1.39; Q2 revs $1.537B vs. est. $1.51B; sees Q3 adjusted EPS $1.44-$1.50 vs. est. $1.46 and revs $1.525B-$1.565B vs. est. $1.55B; sees FY25 adjusted EPS $5.82-$6.06 vs. est. $5.85 and sees FY25 revenue $6.143B-$6.243B vs. est. $6.19B.
STMicroelectronics (STM) reported an unexpected Q2 loss of $133M, missing the estimate for a $56.2M profit; said that without the $190 million in impairment, restructuring charges and other costs, the company would have registered a quarterly profit of $57M; Q2 revs $2.76B above prior quarter $2.52B while sees Q3 sales $3.17B vs. est. $3.1B.
T-Mobile (TMUS) Q2 EPS $2.84 vs est. $2.67, adj EBITDA $8.547B vs est. $8.406B on revs $21.132B vs est. $21.02B, postpaid net adds 318k; guides FY core adj EBITDA $33.3-33.7B vs est. $33.5B.

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Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.

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