Early Look

Monday, July 14, 2025

U.S.  stock futures fell overnight, a day after President Donald Trump threatened to impose new 30% tariffs against imports from Mexico and the European Union adding to the recent list of higher tariffs for foreign trading partners by August 1^st if deals can’t be reached sooner. Meanwhile, the European Union will suspend retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods scheduled to take effect Monday in hopes of reaching a trade deal with the Trump administration by the end of the month.  On Friday, the S&P 500 pulled back from an all-time high it hit the day before, and closed lower, capping the week with minor losses.

This week brings the release of inflation data with the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in the U.S. on Tuesday, as well as the last set of Fed speakers before the start of the pre-July 30 blackout period begins on the Saturday. The last four months have shown a steady decline in inflation thus far, despite the threat of tariffs. Markets expect headline CPI to rise by 2.6% YoY in June vs 2.4% the month before, while core CPI is expected up 2.9% vs 2.8% previously.

In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -110 points to 39,459, the Shanghai Index edged higher 9 points to 3,519, and the Hang Seng Index gained 63 points to 24,203. In Europe, the German DAX is down -217 points to 24,037, while the FTSE 100 is up 37 points to 8.978. Oil prices advance, with WTI rising 1% and above $69 a barrel. Spot gold climbs $10 to around $3,365/oz. Bitcoin rises to another record above $122,000 (earlier topped $123K). Stocks look to bounce this week after falling last week (S&P fell -0.31%, Nasdaq -0.08%, Dow -1.02%).

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -279.13 points, or 0.63%, to 44,371.51
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -45.14 points, or 0.22%, to 20,585.53
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -28.58 points, or 1.26% to 2,234.83

• Earnings After the Close: EQBK FBK SLP

• Japan May Machinery Orders fell (-0.6%) m/m vs (-1.5%) consensus; +4.4% y/y vs 3.4% consensus and Japan May Industrial output revised (-0.1%) m/m vs +0.5% previous and (-0.7%) y/y vs -0.1% prior.

• Amazon (AMZN) delays Alexa’s web debut – Washington Post
• General Motors (GM) is pausing production at a pickup truck plant in Mexico for several weeks, Reuters reports, citing unidentified people familiar with the situation.
• Rivian (RIVN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim.

• China’s crude oil imports rebounded in June, reaching their highest daily rate since August in 2023, data showed on Monday; China imported 49.89 million metric tons of oil, equivalent to 12.14 million barrels per day, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. The volume rose by 7.1% compared with 46.6 million tons in May and was also up 7.4% year on year.
• Mizuho with some alt energy changes noting the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) has emerged as President Trump’s decisive policy, shaping the clean energy sector for years to come. Compared to the previous law, I.E. Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), it aims to sunset solar and wind tax credits faster, requires projects to essentially start construction within the next year to get full tax credits and by the end of 2025 to avoid any constraints on using China-made or funded products. Top three picks: FSLR, BE, RUN. Mizuho downgrades FLNC, NXT, and SHLS to Neutral and ENLT to Underperform.
• SolarEdge (SEDG) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays.
• SpaceX has committed $2 billion to xAI as part of a $5 billion equity round, deepening the ties between tech billionaire Elon Musk’s ventures as his artificial intelligence startup races to compete with rival OpenAI, the Wall Street Journal reported.
• Vitol has entered into a $240 million iron ore prepayment deal with CSN Mining International GmbH, a subsidiary of Brazil’s CSN, marking its first multi-year financing in the metals sector.

• Synchrony (SYF) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BTIG.
• Shares of U.S. payments companies drop after Bloomberg News reported that JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is planning to impose fees on fintech companies for access to its customer bank account data. Financial technology firms PayPal (PYPL), Block (XYZ) and Affirm (AFRM) shares fell late Friday as did payment processors Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) on the headlines.
• Jamie Dimon recently spoke on the boom in unregulated lending to highly indebted companies, a fast-growing market that has been sidelining big banks for year. Dimon warns this trend is a recipe for financial crises, but is investing billions to get on it anyway, with plans to swoop in strategically and profit if there is a meltdown – the WSJ reports.

• Kenvue (KVUE) said on Monday Thibaut Mongon had stepped down as chief executive officer and board member; the company has named Kirk Perry as interim CEO, effective immediately.
• Oscar Health (OSCR) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler and cut tgt to $14.
• Sonnet BioTherapeutics, Inc., (SONN) announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement for a business combination with Rorschach I LLC. At the closing of the Business Combination, the newly created entity is to be named Hyperliquid Strategies Inc., which is expected to hold approximately 12.6 million HYPE tokens, representing $583 million in value and gross cash invested of at least $305 million, for a total assumed closing value of $888 million.
• Takeda (TAK) today announced that all primary and secondary endpoints were met in two Phase 3 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled studies of oveporexton (TAK-861), a potential first-in-class investigational oral Orexin receptor 2 (OX2R)-selective agonist, in narcolepsy type 1 (NT1).
• Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) said late Friday it sees a delayed potential approval for its gene therapy after receiving a complete response letter from the US FDA citing chemistry, manufacturing and controls issues.
• Waters Corporation (WAT) and Becton Dickinson (BDX) agreed to combine BD’s Biosciences & Diagnostic Solutions business with Waters, creating an innovative life science and diagnostics leader with pioneering technologies and an industry-leading financial outlook. The agreement is structured as a tax-efficient Reverse Morris Trust transaction valued at approximately $17.5B.

• Nebius (NBIS) initiated with a Buy at Goldman Sachs and $68 price target saying Nebius is a leading player in the artificial intelligence neo-cloud market, which it has a positive view on.
• Synopsys (SNPS) shares rise along with Ansys’ (ANSS) after China’s market regulator grants conditional approval for Synopsys’ $35 billion buyout of peer Ansys. This clears a major hurdle for the deal, after back-and-forth over U.S. restrictions on export of electronic design automation tools to China. The deal carries a deadline of July 15 for its closure with an option to extend until January next year.
• T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) and United States Cellular Corp. (USM): The Federal Communications Commission cleared T-Mobile to acquire much of the wireless business of US Cellular and some of its network infrastructure.
• Warner Brothers (WBD) DC Studios “Superman” opened with $122 million in U.S. and Canada ticket sales over the weekend, according to studio estimates Sunday.