Daily Commentary: September 03, 2025

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Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

Posted by Pete Stolcers on September 03
www.oneoption.com

This week we will find out if job growth is stable.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – Employment is the focal point this week. After the open JOLTs will be released. Tomorrow ADP, Challenger, Gray & Christmas and initial claims will be released and Friday the jobs report will be released. The Fed has been concerned about the labor market and it is their primary reason for a rate cut in two weeks.

Analysts are expecting a weak report on Friday (75K) and that should be a fairly low bar to hurdle. Initial jobless claims have been averaging around 230K and that would point to a “beat”. Even if the jobs report falls below 50K, the market could rejoice that a rate cut in two weeks is certain. The first rate cut by the Fed is typically market friendly.

Yesterday the market dropped after the long weekend. European markets were down because sovereign interest rates are rising. That translated into a drop for US markets and buyers stepped in. The market was able to enter the gap and after the close GOOG learned that it will not be forced to spin off Chrome in the DOJ’s antitrust case. That sparked a tech rally and much of yesterday’s losses have been erased.

The market has struggled to advance so we should not buy gaps up. Those moves attract profit taking. On the other hand, moves lower have been great entry points for longs. There isn’t much overall movement. The news is going to ramp up and we are out of the summer doldrums. I am expecting to see nice two-sided price movement as the month unfolds.

Until we get a nasty round of news where the selling pressure is relentless and we have a bearish trend day with heavy volume that closes on its low of the day, I won’t get overly concerned that the rally is over. Even then, I would need to see follow through selling the next day on volume. We have not seen anything that resembles this.

Support is at the close from yesterday and resistance is the close from Friday. There’s a good chance that we will fill the gap from Tuesday today.

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