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Bull Markets Die Hard
www.oneoption.com
The dismal jobs report last Friday did not spark a massive decline.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – Last Friday we learned that only 22K new jobs were created in August. This is the fourth consecutive month of employment weakness. The market is focused on the likely rate cut next week and it gapped higher Friday. It didn’t take long for sellers to smack that move down, but the damage was contained and this morning the S&P 500 is going to open roughly where it closed Thursday.
The theory is that monetary easing will lower borrowing costs and that it will stimulate economic growth. Central banks around the globe have been easing for a year and it has not stimulated activity. When people don’t have jobs, they don’t spend money no matter how low interest rates are. The “sugar high” from the first Fed rate cut last a couple of months and then reality sets in. It takes a long time for interest rate cuts to have an impact and once the Fed starts down this path, it doesn’t end.
Investors will worry that the Fed waited too long. If you look at the Fed Fund Futures, there’s a 10% chance priced into a possible 50 basis point rate cut. That’s unlikely, but it shows you that the market hasn’t even gotten the first rate cut and it is looking for the next one.
Last week we learned that Canada lost 66K jobs in August and their unemployment rate rose to 7.1%. That is not good news for our second largest trading partner and global weakness is spreading to North America.
This Wednesday the PPI will be released and the CPI will be released on Thursday. Producer prices spiked .9% last month and analysts are expecting that to decline this month (.3%). It typically take 2-3 months for producer prices to flow through to consumers so we should expect an elevated CPI on Thursday.
I don’t like the fundamental back drop and this is seasonally one of the weakest periods of the year. I am going to keep my trades short term for the next two weeks and I will wait for the FOMC reaction.
Support was established last Friday and the market bounced off of that level. Buyers will test the upside now that they know the damage from the jobs report was contained. Overseas markets were up overnight and that is providing a tailwind this morning. Be patient and wait for dips. There’s no need to chase. Look for stocks that held strong during the market decline Friday. Those will be your best prospects.
This is likely to be an inside day and Friday’s range represents support and resistance.
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