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Lower Inflation and Employment
www.oneoption.com
The PPI came in better than expected and initial jobless claims are rising.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – Yesterday the market struggled to advance after inflation eased and a trade deal with China was announced. That is a sign of resistance and overseas markets were generally down overnight.
The S&P 500 recovered some of the overnight losses after the PPI came in lighter than expected (.1% vs .2% expected). Initial jobless claims came in at 248K which is one of the higher levels we’ve seen in months. The average this year had been running around 220K. Lower inflation and a weaker job market should yield a more dovish tone during next week’s FOMC Meeting. No rate cut is expected until September/October.
Trump is reminding our trade partners of the tariff deadline in a few weeks. He said that they are in talks with Japan, Korea, India and others. Japan’s Prime Minister has said publicly that they are not going to rush into a bad trade deal because of a deadline. Bessant said yesterday that the deadline will be extended for countries where trade talks are progressing.
There is a 30-year bond auction today at 1:00 PM ET. That duration is fairly uncommon and although it is a small one ($22B), the US is testing the waters to see if there is any demand for our long-term debt. Tariffs have soured our relationship with a lot of bond buyers and there is a good chance that it will not go well.
The “Big Beautiful Bill” is a potential upside catalyst in the next few weeks and Republicans are scrambling to get it passed before July 4th.
The price action this week has been very choppy with opportunities on both sides. Our best set-up is a drop that finds support early in the day and we might get that today. Find strong stocks that are trying to move higher on good volume and that are through key resistance levels. As the market probes for support you want to see them tread water or move higher. These will be your best candidates once market support is confirmed. Don’t try to ride trades. Set reasonable targets and take gains when they present themselves. The candle bodies are small and this has been a wimpy float higher.
Support is at $598.50 and resistance is the high from yesterday.
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